During a quick-fire Q&A at the Conservative party conference this weekend, Kemi Badenoch was asked who she would pick between Robert Jenrick or Suella Braverman.
“Why do you keep offering me these? It’s like asking if I’d rather be shot or drowned,” the Tory leader responded with her trademark directness.
The Tories appear more united than they have done in years. Part of that is because they have a common enemy to unite against: Tory defectors.
It is not lost on Badenoch’s team that this time last year, it was a matter of when, not if, Jenrick, her erstwhile leadership rival, would try to oust her.
Mutinous Tory MPs were privately predicting her demise. But after a successful conference, Badenoch limped on – and Jenrick emerged a diminished figure who weeks later would be kicked out of the party.
His presence, however, lives on, with shadow ministers openly sharing their relief that he is no longer among their number.
“Nobody knew how much we hated Robert until he left,” said one shadow cabinet member. Others were less polite. “Rob going was like pulling out a splinter,” one said. “I miss him like I miss an abscess in my molar,” another added.
But while the unity comes, in part, from a mutual dislike, there are of course other factors: Badenoch’s strength as a leader; the country’s yearning for stability; the constant threat of Reform UK to the party’s right.
Badenoch has been running the show for almost two years – the longest serving Tory leader since Boris Johnson – and has begun to set out her principles, writing a ۳۰,۰۰۰ word pamphlet titled The Right Way before the conference.
Tory MPs also seem to have finally realised that voters take a dim view of the party cycling through leaders at such breakneck speed, with five in the past eight years.
Nigel Farage’s woes have also given them reason for hope: while the Reform leader believes his party will recover from a difficult summer, some Tory MPs are confident that his party has peaked.
Other party insiders – possibly more plugged into what is going on in their constituencies – concede that Farage still represents a huge threat. They are among those concerned about Badenoch pitching to the right.
Instead, they say that she needs to do more to win over centrist voters for the party to stand a chance of winning another election. Part of that is by focusing more on the economy and less on culture wars.
“There’s no point telling Kemi not to do anything. But we do have to be careful with our language,” one MP said. Another added: “That’s not Kemi’s instinct. But she does finally seem to understand it all has to be about the economy. That’s where we win.”
Badenoch believes she can “shrug off” the Liz Truss anchor and beat Reform and Labour on the economy, MPs say. Andrew Griffith, her shadow chancellor who has previously worked in business, helps the party’s credibility, they add, and Badenoch will speak more about the topic this week.
The Tory leader also polls ahead of her party, which insulates her from much internal criticism. One adviser said the Tories do better when their leader is in that position – citing David Cameron and Boris Johnson – but worse when they’re behind, as Rishi Sunak was.
Badenoch has told her top team that they have to work “day by day” to restore the party’s fortunes. Yet there is no escaping that almost two years after she was elected as leader, the Tories are still polling lower than they did in ۲۰۲۴ with their catastrophic general election defeat.
“You won’t hear much from us on that,” one senior aide said. “The qualitative stuff is good but it’s not backed up yet by the numbers. We need to put on three or four points in the polls. If we do that and gain momentum we’re back.”
Others are hopeful that the exposure of their conference week can give them enough of a lift in the polls to help them maintain the narrative that they’re on the march.
The spectre hanging over the whole affair, however, is the prospect of a snap general election. Andy Burnham’s political away day at Chequers on Monday has got many Tories spooked, even though the prime minister has ruled out calling an early election.
Perhaps more in hope than expectation, shadow cabinet ministers said they did not believe Burnham would call an election. “He said it would be irresponsible and it’s hard to walk that back,” said one.
However, Badenoch told a bash for Tory MPs on Sunday night the party was getting ready for an election regardless. But while she sounded bullish, her closest lieutenants are anything but. “If there is one, we’re all fucked,” they said.
