Beirut, Lebanon – On Friday, Israel claimed to have established operational control over the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, a development in its fight against Hezbollah that analysts believe could also give Israel greater leverage in negotiations with the Lebanese government planned for later this month.
The Israeli operation to seize the ridge has been ongoing for weeks – and what it says are Hezbollah tunnels underneath – with frequent drone and air strikes by the Israeli military. Analysts told Al Jazeera that the strategically important high ground is significant for the Israelis and Hezbollah because it overlooks a number of nearby regions, including the southern city of Nabatieh.
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As well as its claims about a network of Hezbollah tunnels, Israel also says the Iranian-backed Lebanese group had underground operations rooms, weapons stores and living quarters for fighters. Despite Israel’s assertion that it has control over the ridge, military operations and attacks are reportedly ongoing.
That is despite the June “ceasefire” Israel agreed with Lebanon, but which is being repeatedly violated.
Political and security analyst, Bassel Doueik, told Al Jazeera that Ali al-Taher is crucial to the outcome of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations.
“Israel has continued to breach the ceasefire daily and the Lebanese government is still trying to negotiate because it doesn’t have any other choice,” Doueik said. “However, if Israel actually occupies the hill, it will give it more of an upper hand in the negotiations because it will be occupying more land.”
Lack of optimism
Israel and Lebanon began engaging in US-mediated direct negotiations in April, despite Hezbollah’s opposition.
The talks come after nearly three years of Israeli attacks on Lebanon. The latest war began on October ۸, ۲۰۲۳, when Hezbollah attacked Israel after the beginning of its genocidal war on Gaza. Israel then unilaterally intensified fighting in September ۲۰۲۴, eventually killing more than ۴,۰۰۰ people in Lebanon and assassinating much of Hezbollah’s military leadership, including longtime Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah. It also invaded southern Lebanon and began demolishing homes and infrastructure throughout the area.
A ceasefire was agreed in November ۲۰۲۴ but Israel violated the agreement more than ۱۰,۰۰۰ times. Hezbollah resumed its attacks in response to this year’s US-Israeli war with Iran.
Israel responded by re-invading Lebanon and launching attacks across the country, including killing more than ۳۵۰ people in what became known as Black Wednesday. In late June, a framework agreement was announced between Tel Aviv and Beirut aimed at ending the fighting in Lebanon, launching so-called “pilot zones” where the Lebanese Army would disarm Hezbollah.
Despite the agreement and ongoing negotiations, Israeli forces never stopped attacking Lebanon. Beirut says it continues talks because it is the only option it has.
Israel now says the framework agreement is failing, even if the Lebanese government doesn’t want to give up on it just yet.
“The Lebanese are pushing for pilot zones in areas where the Israelis are currently operating, so they can pull back their troops, but Israel is more interested in pilot zones in areas it is not operating,” Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of a book about Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.
He added that few in Lebanon appear optimistic about the pilot zone plan.
Strategic importance
In recent weeks, Israel has focused many of its attacks on the Qantara mountain range and the Ali al-Taher ridge, where Hezbollah fighters are reported to be.
On Sunday, the Israeli military killed seven people in the southern villages of Arab Salim and Nabatieh al-Fawqa. On Monday, ۱۲ people were killed in Israeli attacks in Kfar Rumman.
Analysts said the ridge has geographic importance to both Hezbollah and Israel.
“The location is of strategic importance to Hezbollah,” Blanford said. “It has dominating views looking west over Nabatieh, dominating views over east over Marjayoun and Khiam to Shebaa, and part of [the occupied] Golan Heights in northern Israel looking south, so it is a strategic area and entirely credible that [Hezbollah] has a massive bunker complex within that hill.”
However, Blanford does not expect the Israelis to attempt to hold Ali al-Taher.
“If the Israelis wanted to keep Ali al-Taher, they would have to seize the high ground to the north and northeast because otherwise it would be vulnerable to attacks by Hezbollah,” he said, recalling a similar dynamic during the Israelis’ ۱۸-year occupation of south Lebanon from ۱۹۸۲-۲۰۰۰. “I’m not sure the Israelis would want to extend that deep, so they would likely dynamite it and pull back their forces to more defensible ground.”
Future of negotiations
Hezbollah continues to oppose direct negotiations with Israeli leaders. It has previously said it prefers indirect talks, similar to how the ۲۰۲۴ ceasefire was arranged.
“The negotiations seemed to have reached an impasse because Lebanon and Israel fundamentally disagree on the implementation of the pilot zones scheme,” David Wood, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Lebanon, told Al Jazeera. “Lebanon argues that Israel has not withdrawn from any areas that it directly occupied, while Israel insists that it will not withdraw until Hezbollah disarms.”
The question now is whether the Israeli advance in Ali al-Taher will give them even more leverage over Lebanon in talks set to resume later this month.
Doueik said that talks were unlikely to change the status quo on the ground, with the Israeli government focused on projecting an image of strength ahead of elections next month.
“The most crucial point in the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations is the upcoming October elections,” he said.
