Yemen’s internationally recognised government wants to show that it has finally taken the initiative against the Houthis in the country’s long-running war.
The announcement of Operation Dawn of Yemen on Monday to restore state authority across the country was quickly followed by a military offensive on the southern Red Sea coast.
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The initial aim is to reverse gains made by the Houthis last month, when the Iranian-backed group took control of one of the world’s most important waterways, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. But the ultimate goal of the operation is to retake the areas of the country held by the Houthis for more than a decade, including the capital, Sanaa, which they seized by force in ۲۰۱۴ and later imposed their own government.
It is a lofty ambition, and the achievements so far have been modest – most notably a limited advance into areas near Bab al-Mandeb.
Still, the attacks indicate that the Saudi-backed Yemeni government operation is being conducted in a more organised manner – particularly notable after last month’s capitulation and loss of the Red Sea coast to the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah (Arabic for Supporters of God).
The main issues faced by government forces in early September included a lack of cohesiveness among the groups fighting against the Houthis and a lack of military preparedness, as well as what analysts have described as Houthi infiltration of government forces’ communications.
It is too early to say whether those problems have been resolved, but the inability of the Houthis to secure the highlands overlooking the areas they conquered in the southern Red Sea has left them vulnerable to a counteroffensive.
There are a number of other factors that, when taken together, suggest the government’s shift to the attack may bring about more success than it has enjoyed since fighting resumed in Yemen in July, ending a fragile truce that had been in place since ۲۰۲۲.
Most notable has been the involvement of Saudi Arabia, which is providing heavy aerial support. On Monday, the Saudi-led coalition supporting the Yemeni government said that ۱۰۰ fighter jets had participated in the offensive, its first acknowledgment in four years – since a ۲۰۲۲ truce – that it had resumed air attacks against the Houthis, despite reports of strikes in September.
The air strikes have aided government forces attacking the Houthis on multiple fronts aside from the Red Sea coast, including Taiz, Marib and al-Jawf.
Maged al-Madhaji, chairman of the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera that the “rate and accuracy of the air strikes” was higher than it had previously been, even compared with the start of the Saudi-led coalition’s anti-Houthi bombing campaign in ۲۰۱۵.
Coupled with intelligence from the United States, the strikes were more efficient and coordinated with ground forces. A US official told Al Jazeera on Monday that ۲۰۰ US advisers were stationed in Saudi Arabia in support of the campaign.
Elias Hanna, a retired Lebanese general, said the coordination revealed a unified command structure that was vital to military success.
“[There is] a central leadership managing operations and coordination between the ground forces and the air forces,” he told Al Jazeera on Monday. “The air force attacks, but ground forces then have to occupy the territory, remain there, and control it.”
The US expertise, Hanna added, essentially provided an “intelligence bank” of targets that would be able to repeatedly attack Houthi positions.
Giants Brigades
Another factor that has so far set the government offensive apart from the fighting in early September has been the prominent role taken by the Giants Brigades.
Previously trained by the United Arab Emirates and now backed by Saudi Arabia, the force had been present during the losses to the Houthis in the Red Sea, but in smaller numbers. This time it has been leading the battle in the area and in Taiz’s al-Waziyah district, which overlooks the port city of Mocha.
The Giants Brigades previously defeated the Houthis in Shabwah in ۲۰۲۲ and drove them out of the southeastern coastal governorate, as well as parts of Marib and al-Bayda east of Sanaa.
“They are the most experienced with the Houthis’ fighting methods,” said al-Madhaji, “because they are the force that has engaged them the most across different theatres of operations – some on flat terrain and some mountainous .”
“In practice, this is the first time we have seen Saudi operational management, together with forces that had been under Emirati management, produce effective results,” added al-Madhaji. “That suggests the operations room has become unified and that operational coordination between the different sides has become more effective.”
International support
Less attention has been paid to the fighting in Marib and al-Jawf, two largely desert governorates east of Sanaa, but government forces have also claimed advances there.
Developments there could prove crucial to what the government has said is its ultimate aim: the recapture of Sanaa, held by the Houthis since ۲۰۱۴. Increased coordination between ground forces, air power and intelligence gathering is the only way a multi-pronged assault towards the capital could be managed, although that still appears to be distant.
The Houthis themselves cannot be discounted. Their forces have so far held firm and regrouped after the losses on Monday in the southwestern town of Dhubab on the Red Sea, and continue to advance towards the government-held city of Taiz, one of the country’s most important centres.
Morale on the government side is fragile – more setbacks, particularly in Taiz, would change the narrative once again.
The Houthis also have strong missile and drone capabilities – strengthened over the past four years – and have already increased their attacks on government forces as well as Saudi Arabia. Forcing them out of territory they have recently claimed is difficult, but forcing them out of territory they have held for years – like the major port city of Hodeidah – will be even harder.
Yet unlike in previous escalations of the conflict, the government and Saudi Arabia have stronger international backing.
The Houthis can attack Red Sea shipping to demonstrate the damage they can inflict if attacked, but that also highlights the dangers of allowing the group to retain control in the region, particularly as Iran conducts a similar policy on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, in the Strait of Hormuz.
The United Kingdom has already said it will provide defensive support to Saudi Arabia, and on Monday the kingdom’s mutual-defence pact with Turkiye and Pakistan was also activated. Ankara has not confirmed any troop deployments, but Islamabad has said that it was involved in support roles, including “reconnaissance”.
That international support may prove vital – both diplomatically and militarily – to the success of the anti-Houthi operation, one that is likely to drag on for many months.
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