Much of the attention ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections has fallen on the battle for control of the United States Congress.
But key state-level races are also unfolding, with far-reaching consequences for the country’s future.
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This year, ۳۶ US states will vote for their next governor, the most powerful elected official in state government.
An unusually high proportion of those races centre on open seats, with no incumbent governor on the ballot seeking re-election.
In ۱۹ of the races, the current officeholder is either term-limited, like California Democrat Gavin Newsom, or voluntarily opted to not run again, like Iowa Republican Kim Reynolds.
This historic turnover creates the potential for several states to take on significant changes in leadership.
Here’s why these races matter:
A state’s chief executive
Governors serve as the chief executives of their states, overseeing government departments and agencies responsible for delivering public services.
Their powers vary by state. In general, governors propose budgets, appoint senior state officials, direct state agencies about how to enforce existing law, and issue executive orders.
They can also choose to sign into law bills passed by their state’s legislature — or veto them.
One of their most visible areas of influence is reproductive rights. Since the US Supreme Court ruled in ۲۰۲۲ that there is no constitutional right to abortion access, state governments have played a central role in determining whether the procedure is legal.
Each state can now regulate abortion within its boundaries, and some ۱۳ state legislatures have passed complete or near-total abortion bans.
But the Guttmacher Institute, a US-based reproductive rights organisation, noted that about a dozen governors have issued executive orders to “mitigate” the harm done by such bans.
“By issuing executive orders, governors could quickly declare immediate protections for providers and patients,” the organisation said. “This was particularly helpful in states such as North Carolina, where the governor is supportive of abortion rights — but the legislature is not.”
Governors can also influence how US elections are administered.
In some states, governors appoint the officials responsible for overseeing elections, while in others, those officials are elected independently. Governors may also sign or veto legislation changing voting rules, giving them significant influence over election administration.
Challenging the US government
Governors also help shape how states respond to the federal government.
They may challenge federal policies in court or negotiate with Washington over funding and programme requirements.
State governments also play a major role in implementing federally funded programmes, making cooperation between governors and the White House important.
One example came after former US President Barack Obama’s landmark healthcare policy, the Affordable Care Act, passed the US Congress in ۲۰۱۰.
In the aftermath of its passage, many governors were in a position to decide whether their states adopted the Affordable Care Act’s expansion to Medicaid, an insurance programme for low-income households.
Some governors, like Steve Beshear of Kentucky and Earl Ray Tomblin of West Virginia, issued executive orders in ۲۰۱۳ to adopt Medicaid expansion without their legislatures’ approval.
Others, like Florida’s then-Governor Rick Scott, opposed Medicaid expansion and directed their state legislatures not to adopt it. Scott, who now serves as a US senator for the state, later dropped his opposition, but the Republican-led Florida legislature did not take up a bill to agree to the expansion.
Future presidential candidates
As their state’s chief executives, governors have a unique platform to showcase their political talents.
Many use the governor’s mansion to catapult to the nation’s highest office, the presidency.
At least ۱۷ former US presidents – including Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W Bush – were governors before they occupied the White House.
But some governors find their presidential ambitions thwarted by backlash to their state-level policies.
The Eagleton Institute of Politics estimates that only ۵۳ percent of the presidential nominees who were previously governors were ultimately victorious in their races.
During the ۲۰۱۶ presidential election cycle, for instance, the governor of New Jersey at the time, Chris Christie, hoped to secure the Republican Party’s nomination.
He dropped out of the race in February of that year, however, amid criticism of several actions undertaken during his governorship.
His administration in New Jersey was still reeling from a scandal known as “Bridgegate”, which concerned accusations that a major roadway was closed to punish the mayor of a nearby city.
And some Republicans denounced the way Christie had greeted Obama, a Democrat, when he visited New Jersey during Hurricane Sandy in October ۲۰۱۲.
Setting the stage for ۲۰۲۸
This year’s midterm races are expected to set the stage for the presidential election in ۲۰۲۸.
Several outgoing governors are among the likely hopefuls. Newsom, who has served as California’s governor since ۲۰۱۹, is prevented from running for a third term this year.
Instead, he is widely speculated to be a frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in ۲۰۲۸, having established himself as a vocal critic of Republican President Donald Trump.
Several other potential Democratic contenders are also locked in re-election campaigns this midterm cycle that could serve as previews for future presidential bids. They include Wes Moore of Maryland and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.
