What does Khalil al-Hayya’s election win mean for Gaza?

Khalil al-Hayya has been elected as the new head of Hamas, ending nearly two years of the movement being without a leader.

After the assassination of former chief Yahya Sinwar in October ۲۰۲۴, Hamas has been managed by a five-member leadership council, of which al-Hayya was a member.

His main competitor for this week’s leadership challenge was Khaled Meshaal, the former head of the political bureau. Al-Hayya beat Meshaal by just a single vote, winning ۳۵ of the ۶۹ votes cast.

His election potentially gives the US one leader within the movement to deal with, experts say.

Al-Hayya, widely viewed as a pragmatist, was reportedly involved in direct negotiations on Gaza with US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff last October.

Despite his apparent links to Iran, his election win and the rapport he established with Witkoff during the talks could enable more US-led negotiations on Gaza’s future

“He’s seen as a very organic part of the Iranian-styled Axis of Resistance, but he’s equally comfortable pursuing negotiations and diplomatic paths. For instance, my understanding is that Witkoff was very keen on negotiating with al-Hayya directly,” said Muhammad Shehada, a visiting fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and a Gazan researcher, writer and human rights advocate.

“He also known inside Hamas as the ’father of four martyrs,’ referring to the two sons who were killed before October ۷, one who was killed during the Israeli strikes on Doha, while discussing Witkoff’s proposal [in September ۲۰۲۵], and one who was killed afterwards.”

Their deaths carry a connection to Witkoff, whose son died at the age of ۲۲ in ۲۰۱۱, Shehada said.

Witkoff acknowledged the bond during a ۶۰ Minutes interview with CBS News, where the envoy said he offered his condolences to Al-Hayya.

“We expressed our condolences to him for the loss of his son. He mentioned it, and I told him that I had lost a son and that we were both members of a really bad club: parents who have buried children,” he said.

‘Continuity candidate’

Born and raised in Gaza, al-Hayya served as the group’s exiled Gaza chief and principal negotiator in ceasefire and prisoner-swap negotiations during Israel’s ongoing genocide in the enclave.

His profile within Hamas grew significantly following the assassinations of both Sinwar and former political chief Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran in July ۲۰۲۴.

Al-Hayya was among leaders targeted in an Israeli strike in Doha last year.

Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy fellow at the ECFR, said al-Hayya’s election is unlikely to fundamentally change the movement’s internal structures.

“He’s very much the continuity candidate. He was the deputy head in Gaza under Sinwar and has been close to the senior leadership for some time,” Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy fellow at the ECFR, said. “While he’s been described as hardline and close to Iran, both of those come with heavy caveats.”

Al-Hayya is considered a practical political figure, who could guide Hamas along a similar trajectory it has been on since the October ۲۰۲۵ Gaza ceasefire, despite Israel’s repeated violations of the agreement.

“There are certainly more hardline figures within the group and al-Hayya has proven himself a pragmatist throughout ceasefire negotiations with Israel,” said Lovatt.

“Similarly, with Iran, there are more vocal supporters in the group and Hamas has always calibrated its support between Arab states and Tehran, so there’s no indication Hamas is about to come under Iranian control.”

Hamas has retained its administrative presence in Gaza, where al-Hayya is said to have a reputational affinity with, despite the territory being almost completely destroyed by Israel’s war and the killing of at least ۷۲,۰۰۰ Palestinians.

Though Hamas’s military functions have been severely depleted by continuous Israeli strikes, the movement continues to oversee basic civil functions, including health services and emergency rescue operations across the Strip.

“This appointment delivers two bold messages: one is that Hamas’s internal structure and processes are still intact and functioning properly despite all odds, including the killing of most of its political and military leadership,” Khaled al-Hroub, a professor in residence at Northwestern University in Qatar, said. “The second is that Gaza still enjoys the lion’s share in decision-making. This doesn’t necessarily mean more hardline politics, but it indicates the focus remains on the Gaza base as a priority.”