Prominent MPs such as Georgie Purcell and other microparty members will face an uphill battle to retain their seats in Victoria’s upper house after parliament voted to abolish group voting tickets.
Victoria’s legislative council was the only remaining upper house in Australia to use the GVT system, in which voters could only choose one party above the line on the ballot paper, with their preferences then allocated by the party if it was knocked out during counting.
But the electoral amendment (miscellaneous matters) bill ۲۰۲۶ passed the upper house on Tuesday night – ۳۳ votes to four – which will mean GVTs cannot be used in the November state election.
Instead, voters will be required to number at least five parties above the line in order of preference.
The GVT system has long been criticised by experts, including election analyst Antony Green, as they allow backroom deals between parties to flourish and enable some candidates to get elected with a small number of primary votes.
“This reform is about converting the electoral system into one that rewards parties that get votes over parties who, in the past, have been elected by clever preference deals,” Green told Guardian Australia on Wednesday.
“In the last decade we’ve had about ۲۰ candidates elected with under ۶% of the vote – some as low as ۱% – who’ve defeated candidates with many more votes because of these preference deals.
“That is impossible under a system where voters control their own preferences.”
The four MPs who opposed the bill were Purcell, who leads the Animal Justice party; the Legalise Cannabis MP Rachel Payne; the Libertarian MP David Limbrick; and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MP Jeff Bourman.
Ben Raue, an electoral analyst and founder of the Tally Room, said the four MPs represented parties that had benefited from GVTs and were “going to have a lot of trouble getting someone elected with this new system”.
“That’s unfortunate for them. But ultimately this about whether GVTs are a fair way to run a democracy and I don’t think it is,” he said.
“Voters should have control of their preferences.”
Purcell said the changes “significantly decrease” her chances of being re-elected but that “it’s not over until it’s over”.
“My team and I are dedicated to running a strong campaign and doing everything we can to secure another four years in parliament,” she said.
Payne and Limbrick have also committed to running again, with the latter – who was a prominent critic of the government’s Covid-۱۹ measures – describing his party as “underdogs”.
“No one had heard of us when I was elected in ۲۰۱۸, I was written off in ۲۰۲۲ and quadrupled my vote, and they are writing us off again in ۲۰۲۶,” he said.
The trio said they supported abolishing GVTs but only if the government also scrapped the state’s eight upper-house regions and replaced them with a single statewide electorate of ۴۰ seats.
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That would lower the electoral quota from ۱۶.۷% to ۲.۴% if members were elected every four years or about ۴.۸% for eight-year terms. However, such a change would require a referendum.
A parliamentary inquiry examining GVTs last year recommended they be abolished in time for the ۲۰۲۶ election and proposed holding a referendum on broader structural reform in ۲۰۲۸ or ۲۰۳۰.
Limbrick said the government had years to make such changes.
“Instead they deliberately waited until the last minute to introduce a flawed system to try and silence diverse voices in parliament,” he said.
Payne said abolishing GVTs without broader reform “benefits the major parties rather than strengthening our democracy”.
“This reform is self-serving and motivated by all the wrong reasons,” she said.
Based on statewide polling, Green expects the Coalition could win two seats in each region under the new system. Labor could win two seats in some regions and be reduced to one in others.
He said Greens could win up to six seats – one in every metropolitan region and possibly one in the regions – while One Nation could win eight or nine seats.
Green stressed that would happen “with or without group voting tickets”, given the party is polling at about ۲۰% of the primary vote.
“Whatever happens, if the Liberal party form government after the election, even with a majority, they will not have a majority in the upper house,” he said. “They will have to rely on One Nation in the upper house.”
