Ukraine pushes Russia back in Donetsk as military, civilian casualties soar

Russian forces continue to retreat in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

The Kremlin-aligned channel Rybar, on Telegram, said on October ۷ that Moscow’s forces were losing villages south of Lyman, a town they have tried to capture as a springboard to mount a full-scale offensive on the “fortress belt” cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive named “Operation Vivaldi” this year has reclaimed ۱۷۵ square kilometres (۶۷ square miles) of previously occupied land around Lyman.

“The enemy is using successes in the Lyman direction to develop attacks [east of Sloviansk], where Russian troops are forced to defend previously occupied positions and expend resources on restoring control, instead of launching their own offensive,” wrote Rybar.

“It is becoming increasingly clear that the possibility of storming the urban area [of Sloviansk] is receding into the more distant future.”

A key battle seems to be building for the village of Kryva Luka east of Sloviansk, which sits on high ground on the Russian-held right bank of the Siversky-Donets River, and which could serve as a base to launch counterattacks further east.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Reuters news agency that Operation Vivaldi was successful but incomplete.

To get as far as Kryva Luka, Russian sources acknowledged that Ukraine has recaptured settlements west of it. They blamed the Russian communications strategy of claiming settlements that have not been captured, giving away the plan of attack.

“Premature statements” aided Ukraine, said Rybar. “Some villages were declared liberated even before Russian units arrived, which allowed the enemy to accumulate forces there and launch counterattacks.”

Ukraine built up reserves in the Lyman area before unfolding its counteroffensive. That preparation seems to be yielding results.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence said its campaign to disrupt the flow of Russian ammunition and fuel to the front struck a record number of air defence assets and targets more than ۵۰km (۳۰ miles) away in September.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Russia had captured ۱,۳۰۰sq km (۵۰۰sq miles) of Ukraine in September, echoing claims by his generals.

The Institute for the Study of War, which monitors territorial advances using geolocated, open-source data, said Russia actually lost ۸۰sq km (۳۰sq miles) during that month.

The Russian casualty rate rose to a record for ۲۰۲۶ of ۴۶,۲۳۰ in September, according to Ukraine’s military.

Of these, ۳۳,۰۸۷ – more than ۷۰ percent – were confirmed kills, said Ukraine.

The commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brovdi, said enemy casualties were up by ۴۰ percent in the first five days of October, compared with the same period in September.

The Ukrainian military on October ۷ counted ۱,۵۴۵,۹۵۰ Russian dead and wounded for the entire full-scale invasion since ۲۰۲۲.

Putin’s response

Putin’s response has been to intensify bombing, causing civilian suffering.

Twenty-two people, five of them children, were killed in the city of Pryluky, in the northern Chernihiv region, when a Russian cruise missile demolished a five-storey apartment building on October ۷, Putin’s birthday.

“Today, for Putin’s birthday, the Russian army ‘gifted’ the destruction of a residential building in Pryluky,” said Zelenskyy.

Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia unleashed ۱۳۰ drones and ۴۸ cruise missiles across ۱۲ regions that day, as well as ballistics. At least two more people died in Kyiv and two in Oleksandria.

At least ۳۰ people died in Kramatorsk on October ۸, when a Russian bomb struck two city buses. Video of the emergency response showed bodies strewn across an avenue and in a park.

Recent analysis of the Geran-۴ and Geran-۵ jet-powered drones Russia increasingly uses for many of its attacks makes it unlikely that these attacks on nonmilitary targets are accidental.

Ukraine’s military intelligence said the attacks use satellite and sophisticated inertial navigation systems, as well as a camera that reads landmark features and checks them against an on-board database – all three systems working in concert to ensure accurate navigation.

Ukraine has responded to the jet-powered drones by speeding up delivery of F-۱۶ fighters from its allies, which are proving an effective first line of defence.

“Currently, F-۱۶s are destroying between ۵۰ percent and ۶۰ percent of the drone attacks,” said Zelenskyy.

Ukraine is also testing five new types of interceptor drones, the most successful of which is ۳۰ percent effective, and experimenting with small-scale missiles, Zelenskyy said.

A dozen AI-driven heavy machine-gun turrets have been placed around Kyiv as a last line of defence, with dozens more planned around the country.

These are a “facility-level” defence, said Serhiy Beskrestnov, a senior Defence Ministry adviser. “It can protect a warehouse, factory, bridge, or power substation.”

Russia has begun hitting bridges across the Dnipro River, striking Kyiv’s southern and northern bridges seven times in the first four days of October. It has previously struck the building where Ukraine’s cabinet met, as well as energy facilities feeding the city, in an effort to cause a blackout.

Russia’s jet-powered drones travel at more than ۵۰۰km (۳۱۰ miles) per hour and are more difficult to intercept than its propeller-driven Shahed drones.

Despite this, during the October ۷ strike, Ukraine’s Air Force said it intercepted ۸۰ percent of the jet-powered drones, ۹۵ percent of the propeller-driven drones and ۸۰ percent of cruise missiles.

On October ۷, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Kyiv to announce a ۱.۳-billion-euro ($۱.۴۶bn) military aid package, and to sign agreements worth ۸.۵ billion euros ($۹.۵bn) to jointly develop drone defences and other weapons with Ukraine.

Merz’s visit was an important political gesture following recent elections in two German states where the pro-Russian AfD trounced his governing CDU party.

Ukraine continued long-range strikes inside Russia.

These struck refineries in Volgograd on October ۲ and Bashkortostan on October ۸, as part of a strategy to starve the Russian economy and military of fuel.

“Over ۵۱ percent of the enemy’s oil refining capacity has been disabled,” said Ukraine’s military.

Ukraine also hit the Samara linear production and dispatch station, which its General Staff described as “a major hub for receiving, storing, and blending oil”.

The staff said eleven ۲۰,۰۰۰-tonne storage tanks and three ۵۰,۰۰۰-tonne storage tanks had been destroyed.

“The facility blends high- and low-sulfur oil from various fields to produce the export grade of oil known as Urals, which accounts for up to ۵۰ percent of the total volume of Russian oil exports,” the military said.

Ukraine also struck military targets. On October ۷, it struck the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant, which extracts gaseous sulphur for use in explosives.

On October ۴, it destroyed a Sukhoi Su-۳۵ multi-role fighter and a Sukhoi Su-۳۴ fighter-bomber on the Adygea airfield, and also hit the Seshcha airfield in Bryansk.

Its campaign of mid-range strikes to destroy Russian power supply in occupied areas had reached ۴۵۶ between July ۶ and October ۳.