Donald Trump’s deal with Vladimir Putin to temporarily lift sanctions on US imports of Russian diesel will have little “meaningful” effect on motorists and businesses in the US and overseas, energy and foreign policy analysts have predicted.
The US president infuriated Volodymyr Zelenskyy when he announced the deal on Friday, writing on Truth Social that the agreement with his Russia counterpart to supply millions of tonnes of diesel was essential to reduce fuel prices in the US, which have soared after his decision to go to war against Iran.
The package announced by Trump involves ۳۰۰,۰۰۰ tonnes of diesel released immediately “to the American and global marketplace” followed by ۵۰۰,۰۰۰ tonnes in November and a further ۱m tonnes after that. The ۳۰۰,۰۰۰ figure equates to about three-quarters of what the US would use in a day, according to calculations using figures from the US Energy Information Administration.
“Diesel prices for Americans and, indeed, the world, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my greatest priority,” Trump posted.
However, experts suggested that the quantities involved – and the time it will take for the supplies to arrive in the US – is “too little, too late” to affect current high diesel prices, which observers have linked to challenging Republican party polling numbers before next month’s midterm elections.
US prices have surged by almost ۷۰% since the start of the Iran war, to about $۶.۳۰ a gallon, according to American Automobile Association. In the UK, the average price of diesel climbed to a record £۲ a litre earlier in October, and sat just below that mark on Friday.
Ashley Kelty, an energy analyst with the investment bank Panmure Liberum, said: “It is not going to have any impact on prices. The first amount [due to be shipped to the US] is so small.
“They are going to have to charter vessels, load them and transport the cargo to the US. That will take about three weeks – so we are pretty much at the end of the month and about a week before the midterms.”
The US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Sunday: “This is good for the American people … bringing these diesel prices down.”
However, Kelty said the diesel shipments would also cause complications in a global supply chain, including multinational companies having to work out which of its supplies originated from Russia and therefore might breach sanctions in other jurisdictions, including Europe.
The US Treasury suspended sanctions on Russian diesel exports until ۷ April as part of the deal, while keeping in place other sanctions on Russian products.
Zelenskyy described Trump’s deal as a “weak decision”, saying it would encourage Russia to keep attacking Ukraine, but Trump then blamed Kyiv’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure for rising fuel prices. Trump said Ukraine neeeded “a new leader”.
On Sunday, Zelenskyy said he would be ready to stop hitting Russian oil refineries if Russia curbed its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Trump later posted on Truth Social: “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
Maximilian Hess, the founder of the political risk consultancy Enmetena Advisory and a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said: “It will not have any meaningful domestic US effect or international effect given its full terms are highly unlikely to be met as a result of the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining which have limited its diesel output.
“The whole point of the deal for Putin is that it fails, which he can blame on Ukraine and thus stoke tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy. Indeed, it’s already working.”
