It was another bold statement from United States President Donald Trump: An edict in his usual inflated style, claiming that the US had almost sealed Iran off from the rest of the world.
“Very little gets into, or out of, Iran!” the US president posted on his Truth Social account on Sunday, a day after the US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced its latest plan to choke Tehran’s military supply networks.
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On Sunday, CENTCOM announced Task Force Iron Gate – a unit targeting land routes and the Caspian Sea, which will aim to prevent Iran from using ground routes to transport advanced weapons and other materials.
Trump’s message on Truth Social claimed that the task force was “in full force and effect” in Iran – and that between this and the US naval blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the US had virtually cut off what enters and exits the country.
But analysts say a small intelligence-focused unit cannot seal Iran’s borders or stop its extensive procurement networks without regional cooperation.
They did warn, however, that attempts to disrupt these networks could draw neighbouring countries into the conflict and undermine ongoing diplomatic efforts in the US-Israel war on Iran.
“I see Task Force Iron Gate as a desperate attempt to extend the American naval blockade into Iran’s continental supply networks without deploying American troops along its borders,” Andreas Krieg, an associate professor of defence studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.
An ‘intelligence fusion cell’
Task Force Iron Gate aims to find out where “weapons systems are coming in, how they could potentially be cut off” and how “Iran is transporting its energy”, Michael Mulroy, a former US deputy assistant defence secretary for the Middle East, has told Al Jazeera.
Based in Tampa, Florida, the unit will coordinate with other US government agencies “on preventing the movement of advanced weapons systems, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials and illegal revenue streams across Iran’s land borders and the Caspian Sea”, CENTCOM has said.
Analysts said the task force could coordinate sanctions enforcement, pressure foreign suppliers, and work with partner countries to disrupt smuggling.
According to Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, the US mission would rely on a combination of satellite imagery, drones, intercepted communications, financial intelligence and intelligence-sharing.
“Then, frankly, I would expect some use of force – strikes or discreet ground operations – to confiscate components, whether done by US forces or the Israelis,” the analyst told Al Jazeera.
“They would want to pass some intelligence on and bring legal and economic pressure to bear outside the Middle East if they think dual-use components are coming from the West … but if the target is supplies from Russia and China, that will be tougher.”
While CENTCOM’s announcement did not explicitly identify Iran’s weapons trade with Russia, analysts say the unit could be seen as an attempt to disrupt supply networks that include Russian connections.
US media have reported that Russia has sent drone components and explosives to Iran via the Caspian Sea. There are also claims that Russian technology could be helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles.
Krieg agreed the task force would combine methods, but stated that it would operate largely as an “intelligence fusion cell”.
“Twenty people cannot police thousands of kilometres of frontiers,” he said.
“The objective is not necessarily to stop every shipment, but to make Iranian military procurement progressively more expensive, slower and riskier,” he added.
The obstacle the US mission will face, however, is political rather than technological, he argued. Iran’s neighbours will be largely unwilling to cooperate.
“Iraq offers Washington some leverage, but Iranian-aligned networks remain deeply embedded in its economy and security institutions,” he explained.
Azerbaijan could cooperate discreetly, while Turkmenistan would be “extremely reluctant” to jeopardise its neutrality or relationships with Russia and China, said the professor.
Pakistan is particularly unlikely to participate openly because it is currently mediating between Washington and Tehran, he added. Turkiye also has little interest in turning its border with Iran into another confrontation, said Krieg.
“Without these countries’ cooperation, Washington can disrupt individual networks but cannot effectively seal Iran’s borders,” he said.
Rami Khouri, a public policy fellow at the American University of Beirut and a non-resident senior fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC, has previously told Al Jazeera that Iran’s history as a trading nation for thousands of years makes the US mission near impossible.
“There’s an enormous web of contacts that Iran has had for thousands of years with traders and partners and allies all over the region, especially in Asia – it’s virtually impossible for the US to seal off every one,” he said.
“There are people all over the region who have links with Iran, some very close, some just commercial,” he said.
Mission creep or mission impossible?
Krieg expressed concern about the potential for mission creep — that the task force’s action could widen the war to new arenas.
“Intelligence gathering can quickly become pressure for seizures, border closures or military strikes against suspected logistical infrastructure,” he said.
“This would extend America’s economic war into the sovereign territory of neighbouring states.”
Iran’s response in turn would likely be asymmetrical, “intensifying maritime coercion in Hormuz and potentially using the Houthis to increase pressure around Bab al-Mandeb and Saudi Arabia”, Krieg added.
Joe Kent, a former top US counterterrorism official, has also argued that the new task force is an attempt by CENTCOM to subvert ongoing diplomatic efforts.
“This is CENTCOM inviting Iran to escalate while the vice president is attempting to negotiate with the Iranians,” Kent, who resigned in March in protest against the US’s war on Iran, said on X following the US military’s announcement.
“This is, as CENTCOM calls it, ‘policy by CONOP’, when the military finds a way to subvert the White House without blatantly disobeying the President, by taking actions that will ensure a war escalates or perpetuates.”
The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, has reported that CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is among the many officials, alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, pressing Trump to renew attacks on Iran.
Some analysts, however, argue that without US access to the Caspian Sea, troops on the ground, or cooperation from neighbouring states, the task force will have limited practical impact.
Mahjoob Zweiri, a professor of contemporary history and politics at Qatar University, has told Al Jazeera that the new initiative may just be symbolic because of the lack of US military presence on the Caspian Sea.
“America has no access to the sea, unless some of the neighbouring countries like Azerbaijan or Armenia or others collaborate [with them] … And they’re not collaborating on this because they don’t want to upset Russia,” said Zweiri. “It will require … troops on the ground, and this is unlikely to happen.”
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