United States President Donald Trump has promised a $۵,۰۰۰ payout for every adult US citizen if the Republican Party holds onto its narrow control of both houses of Congress at the upcoming midterm elections in November.
Trump headlined a large Republican convention in Dallas, Texas, this week, in a bid to energise Republican supporters amid poor polling that indicates there could be a surge of support for the Democratic Party across the country.
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But at a time of rising energy prices, inflation, an ongoing and deeply unpopular war with Iran and rising national debt, the move has prompted questions about whether the world’s biggest economy can actually afford to pay what has been dubbed the “Trump dividend” to ۲۷۰ million adult Americans – and whether it would even be legal to do so.
What has Trump promised?
“Because we’ve done so well and because our country is making so much money, that only I can make you this promise,” Trump told Republican supporters at Wednesday’s convention.
To loud applause and chants of “USA, USA”, he said: “I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $۵,۰۰۰,” as long as the Republican Party keeps its majorities in both the House of Representatives and the US Senate.
“If the Republicans win, you win with us,” he declared.
Trump did not elaborate on how or when the payments would be made – or how they would be funded – stipulating only that people would be required to spend it in the US. “We don’t want you going to Canada to spend the money.”
How much would this proposal cost?
There are up to ۲۷۰ million adult US citizens, meaning the dividend could cost $۱.۳ trillion before the administrative costs for the implementation and processing of the payments are taken into account.
Vice President JD Vance suggested the money would come from revenues raised by Trump’s trade tariffs.
He told Fox News: “What the president is talking about is fundamentally a dividend for American workers. We’re taking in an extraordinary amount of revenue because the president of the United States is actually standing up to both foreign companies, but also foreign countries who’ve been taking advantage of America’s workers. I don’t think it’s a controversial idea.”
But the US-based Tax Policy Center projects that tariffs will raise about $۱.۷ trillion “in fiscal years ۲۰۲۶ through ۲۰۳۶, with $۱۷۷bn raised in ۲۰۲۶”.
A “Trump dividend” of $۵,۰۰۰ for every US adult, therefore, amounts to about three-quarters of the total revenue projected across ۱۱ years.
Most of that money has not yet been collected, as it is an economic forecast only. Additionally, it does not take into consideration the burden of countertariffs imposed by other countries on US exports.
So how would the US pay for this?
Ultimately, it would have to be funded by national debt, analysts say.
This means the money Trump is promising to the American people would add to the massive mountain of debt the state has borrowed from domestic and foreign investors alike. That extra borrowing drives up the total interest payments the government has to make. That bill will ultimately have to be paid back by the American people.
Currently, the US is paying about $۱.۱ trillion annually to service its debt, slightly more than it spends on defence.
US national debt hit $۴۰ trillion in August, the highest it’s ever been. The Congressional Budget Office initially projected it would not reach this level for another two years.
Total US debt has been climbing by $۱ trillion every five months since ۲۰۲۰ and has doubled since ۲۰۱۷, according to the Peter G Peterson Foundation, a US-based nonpartisan organisation focused on fiscal policy and the national debt. The COVID-۱۹ pandemic – and now the war on Iran – accelerated the debt.
Public debt borrowed from domestic and foreign investors makes up ۸۰ percent – roughly $۳۲ trillion – of the gross debt, according to data from the Department of the Treasury.
About $۲۱ trillion of this public debt is owed domestically, to a variety of creditors including the Federal Reserve ($۴.۵۲۸ trillion), which buys and sells Treasury securities to influence federal interest rates and manage the money supply, according to analysis by the Peter G Peterson Foundation.
Other creditors are mutual funds ($۵.۱۹۵ trillion), pension funds ($۱.۱۳۵ trillion), state and local governments ($۱.۶۳۶ trillion), commercial banks and depository institutions ($۲.۰۸۳ trillion) and other corporate and individual lenders ($۶.۶۶۰ trillion).
Is Trump’s dividend promise legal?
Federal laws in the US prohibit any payments which are designed to influence the way someone votes.
Criminal defence lawyer John W Day told The Associated Press news agency that Trump’s campaign promise does appear to be legal, however: “It’s not a payment to individuals to try to get them to vote in a particular way,” he said. The distinction lies in not handing someone money first and then asking them to vote in a specific way, he added.
Day also notes the fact that the payout would be for everyone, no matter which individuals may have voted. The difficulty might be less about the legal aspect of it and more about whether Congress is likely to approve the payout. A one-off payment to American citizens would have to be approved by Congress. “It doesn’t just exist out there in a slush fund for the president to hand out. So Congress would have a say in whether or not it gets authorised,” Day said.
Has Trump proposed such things before?
Trump has previously promised cash payments. After the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was set up under Elon Musk at the start of Trump’s second term, Americans were told they would receive part of the money saved by slashing red tape, government workforce reductions and the termination of government contracts.
When DOGE was established, Musk said he expected to cut “at least $۲ trillion” from government spending, without identifying a timeframe for doing it. He later lowered that to $۱ trillion.
In June ۲۰۲۵, DOGE claimed to have cut $۱۸۰bn in government costs, although this figure has been disputed. No payments have reportedly been transferred to citizens.
Another dividend payment was promised to citizens in November ۲۰۲۵, when Trump wrote on social media that trillions had been collected in tariff revenues: “A dividend of at least $۲,۰۰۰ a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”
There have been no reports of such payouts following this promise, however.
