Elderly Americans can expect to lose an average of $۲,۱۵۲ in annual social security benefits each, a projected ۸.۶% reduction in their retirement payments, by ۲۰۳۴ and every year after as a direct consequence of the economic fallout from the Trump administration’s anti-immigration campaign, if that carries on, according to a new report shared exclusively with the Guardian.
Already, US food prices are up, housing permits to build new homes are down – and even native-born Americans are losing out on potential jobs after the sudden exodus of ۱.۲ million foreign-born workers over the last two years as a result of Donald Trump’s policies, the report finds.
“When the Trump administration says things, it’s not always data-driven. And we wanted to see what the data shows, and what other people have found the data shows,” said Michael Ettlinger, one of the report’s authors. “Turns out that refutes what the US president primarily is asserting.”
The blowback on the economy from Donald Trump’s crackdown is wide-ranging, even as the federal government’s aggressive mass deportation campaign quietly ramps up further.
“We are just beginning to see the harms in terms of what is happening here domestically. But the impacts of these policies, of these efforts, are going to be long-lasting. And I think that is by design,” Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of the pro-immigration reform organization America’s Voice, told the Guardian.
The report, Economic Impacts of Trump Administration Immigration Policy, was commissioned by America’s Voice and conducted by researchers at Economic Insights and Research Consulting, a firm focused on economic analysis.
Its conclusions underscore how recent federal policies revoking immigrants’ legal protections or targeting them for enforcement have had dire effects on the nation’s affordability crisis and job market, especially in regions and industries that rely disproportionately on foreign-born workers.
In the US agricultural sector, where ۴۲% of crop workers are undocumented and ۶۸% are foreign-born, farmers across the country are warning that the vast majority or in some cases all of their workforce has disappeared overnight, leaving produce to fall to, or rot in, the ground and go to waste.
Food products heavily reliant on immigrant labor have experienced much sharper price increases than food overall since Trump retook the White House, according to the report.
Examples of immigrant-reliant food price increases that have exceeded the average increase in grocery prices over the last ۱۹ months, compared with the ۱۹ months before Trump returned to office in January ۲۰۲۵, are: fresh whole milk up by ۵.۷%, canned vegetables up by ۶.۳%, and apples up by ۷.۲%, the report found.
In that period before Trump’s inauguration, the vast majority of foods that principally depend on immigrant labor for production saw prices rise more slowly compared with other foods and some prices even fell outright, according to the report.
“One thing that changed was the [immigration] policy. Before, the trend for all those goods was a lower inflation rate. And afterward, the trend was higher inflation. So the trend was reversed, and that was quite striking,” said Robert Lynch, one of the report’s authors.
The construction industry, where foreign-born workers fill almost a third of all occupations, has also been severely affected. States more dependent on immigrant labor have seen costs for new single-family homes soar ۱۰.۹% in ۲۰۲۶, compared with the first eight months of ۲۰۲۴, bringing building projects’ monetary value from an average of $۳۰۵,۷۵۲ to $۳۳۸,۷۵۲.
And the issuance of housing permits to build single-family homes has dropped ۱۰.۶% nationwide since January ۲۰۲۵, with higher declines in regions more reliant on foreign-born workers, the research found.
Meanwhile, native-born Americans are missing out on potential income in hard-hit states like California, Nevada, New Jersey, Florida and New York, where construction employment is on the decline – because when there are no immigrant roofers to build a home, American electricians and plumbers lose that project, too.
“It’s not like someone can go work in construction and just not have any skills. And we’re losing people who have been here for decades working in construction. That could be fixed, but it’s going to take time,” Ettlinger said.
Other industries with soaring costs and severe labor shortages include healthcare, including home health care, nursing homes, adult daycare, lawn care, landscaping and groundskeeping, where immigrants have historically comprised a disproportionate share of the workforce and expertise.
By September ۲۰۲۵, less than nine months into the second Trump administration, native-born workers had already lost an estimated ۵۱,۰۰۰ to ۲۹۷,۰۰۰ jobs because of changes to US immigration policy, the report said. The labor force shrunk by an estimated ۹۱۹,۰۰۰ people during the ۱۸ months of Trump’s second term, while job growth has slowed to roughly a third of the rate it was before he retook office.
The federal government risks losing a large segment of the $۲۶bn in payroll taxes from unauthorized immigrants who help to support the US social security fund that pays out to American seniors – while not being able to access those benefits themselves. Now, social security trustees, including the treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, health and human services secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr, labor secretary, Keith Sonderling, and social security commissioner, Frank Bisignano, are warning that lower net immigration than expected is threatening worse finances for the flailing retirement benefits system, which could mean cuts to Americans’ entitlements.
“The share of that annual loss due to the Trump immigration policy would be $۲,۱۵۲ [per person on average]. Thus, the Trump immigration policies, if continued, would reduce projected average annual Social Security benefits by ۸.۶% in ۲۰۳۴, and every year thereafter,” the report’s authors write.
They told the Guardian that if the administration’s immigration agenda continues as expected, the implications for the US economy could get even worse.
“We would expect higher prices,” Lynch said. “We would expect more job losses, slower economic growth and the affordability crisis getting worse – partly because prices are higher, partly because people are losing their jobs and their incomes and they can’t afford as much.”
