For weeks, the streets of Serbia were teeming with young people rallying against the government. At the height of the protests in March ۲۰۲۵, more than ۱۰۰,۰۰۰ took to the streets.
The student movement had called for early elections for nearly two years, and President Aleksandar Vucic, who resigned on Sunday, finally heeded their call earlier this month. He announced snap parliamentary elections for October ۲۵.
Recommended Stories
list of ۴ itemsend of list
With the elections originally not due until December ۲۰۲۷, the early vote is seen as an attempt by governing populists to cling to power despite widespread discontent.
Vucic is vying for the prime minister’s post, a role he has held before, appearing to yield to protesters’ demands not out of goodwill but in the hopes of ushering in a result that keeps him in office, analysts say.
But experts warn that elections will hardly solve the underlying political tensions gripping the country, triggered after ۱۶ people were killed in ۲۰۲۴ when a concrete canopy collapsed at a railway station. Student protesters blamed the disaster on government negligence and alleged corruption.
The move “is essentially about reducing political risk”, Viktor Stamenkovic, a researcher at Belgrade’s Institute for Political Studies, told Al Jazeera.
“Given the circumstances, the ruling camp is choosing the electoral sequence it considers least dangerous,” he said, referring to Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
Saving his skin: Elections a cling to power
Vucic could stall no more – both the presidential and parliamentary vote would have had to be held next year.
“Vucic has, for some time, been aware that further delay is unlikely to work in his favour,” Stamenkovic said.
Vucic’s presidential term expires before the mandate of the current parliament, said Stamenkovic. Serbia’s recent political history explains the order of the elections – the parliamentary before the presidential, the analyst added.
Presidential elections can fundamentally alter the parliamentary dynamics that follow – which is how Vucic’s party came to power, Stamenkovic explained.
Vucic cannot run for a third term under Serbia’s constitution, and no other SNS figure is as popular as him.
“In ۲۰۱۲, the presidential victory of the SNS candidate Tomislav Nikolic changed the political momentum so dramatically that the bloc, which had previously appeared capable of forming a parliamentary majority, was ultimately unable to do so,” said Stamenkovic. “The presidential result altered the calculations of the parliamentary parties and paved the way for a government led by SNS.”
Vucic, therefore, has good reason to fear the same scenario being repeated.
Vucic has built a personalised political system centred on himself rather than his party or any successor, said Stamenkovic.
“He therefore has to find a way of transferring his own political strength from the presidency into the parliamentary arena … effectively staking his political future on the parliamentary election.”
For Milica Vojinovic, an investigative reporter at the Serbian outlet KRIK, the goal of the governing party is to stay in power at any cost.
“They [want to] continue their corruption projects, which usually means finding new ways and public procurements through which they can take money… [including from] public budgets,” Vojinovic told Al Jazeera.
She cited irregularities in past elections, such as vote buying by the SNS, documented by election observers and human rights organisations, and feared that the next elections will see an “escalation of these tactics, now that the student movement is actually threatening to win the election and take power from Vucic’s party”.
The vote will not resolve country’s discord
Since ۲۰۲۴, the governing party has lost a sense of political legitimacy, said Stamenkovic.
“Even if – and this is a big if – SNS wins another parliamentary majority, it is difficult to envisage a return to a situation in which it can govern normally and claim the kind of broad social legitimacy it once enjoyed,” he said. “Virtually all polling shows that a majority of the country believes Serbia is heading in the wrong direction and that the time has come for change.”
Mass demonstrations have not taken place in Serbia for some time, as the student movement has shifted from organising large rallies to election campaigning.
The youth movement recently submitted their election list to state election authorities after a jubilant march through the capital of Belgrade, formally entering the race.
Polls show that this vote could bring representatives of the student movement into parliament and state institutions, said the Serbia-based Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA).
“This is important for Serbia’s democracy … [They] will definitely improve the legitimacy of the parliament as the representative body,” the group said.
Transparency and anticorruption are priorities for most citizens, with the social and political reality in the country having changed in the two years since the railway station incident, the organisation added.
Vojinovic, however, predicted that if Vucic’s party continues to hold power, “we are to expect the most repressive measures seen so far against everyone who has been criticising, or in any way opposing, the government”.
Criminal cases have already been brought against some activists in the student movement, as well as a political analyst, she said.
According to Human Rights Watch, foreign agent laws, first introduced by Russia and seen being picked up by other nations, have been used to brand independent civil society, media and other dissenting voices as illegitimate and acting on behalf of foreign interests. Such a law was proposed in Serbia in ۲۰۲۴.
“Recent smear campaigns against my newsroom, as well as other independent media outlets and NGOs, lead us to believe that they may be a precursor to the introduction of a ‘foreign agents law’ in the near future, should Vucic’s party remain in power,” Vojinovic added.
EU rift no matter
Meanwhile, Serbia is no closer to joining the European Union, but that is not a real priority for Vucic, the experts said.
“It is widely understood that Serbia cannot make meaningful progress towards EU membership under the current system of government,” said Stamenkovic. “What matters much more to Vucic is avoiding serious political pressure and criticism from Brussels.”
Ratko Mladic’s funeral illustrates this balancing act: Serbia hosted the semi-official honouring of the former Bosnian Serb army general – who died while serving a life sentence for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the ۱۹۹۲–۱۹۹۵ war in Bosnia – but Vucic did not attend, he said.
“In some ways, the relationship between Vucic’s government and the EU resembles a couple trapped in a disastrous marriage who nevertheless do not divorce because both sides continue to benefit from the relationship.
“Vucic cooperates with the EU on issues that matter to Brussels, while the EU has for years been willing to overlook a great deal about the increasingly authoritarian nature of his rule,” he added.
The two are also at odds over Russia, which Serbia has ties with.
A public opinion poll in June by the CRTA and Stanford University’s Democracy Action Lab showed that among SNS voters, ۱۵ percent wanted closer ties with the EU while ۶۰ percent favoured relations with Russia.
“There is every reason to expect election day itself to be highly contentious,” said Stamenkovic.
