Saudi Arabia is preparing for a major military offensive against the Houthis by sea and possibly by land in central Yemen, Yemeni sources believe, in a move to break the chokehold on its oil exports through the southern Red Sea.
Saudi forces have been seen withdrawing from the east of Yemen in what could be preparation for a land offensive. At the same time, Riyadh is trying to organise a naval coalition to protect shipping from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait.
The Saudi defence ministry said on Thursday that ۱۴ states including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan and Djibouti had issued a joint statement supporting a multinational maritime defence coalition.
The Iran-aligned Houthis, who control Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, and much of its Red Sea coastline, announced on ۲۰ July that they were implementing a blockade against Saudi ships, but they have denied they are planning to impose tolls on all ships.
The group says it will lift the blockade once Saudi Arabia lifts its blockade on Yemen, positioning the dispute with Saudi Arabia over the future of Yemen and not directly about Iran. Saudi Arabia intervened in the Yemeni civil war in ۲۰۱۵ in support of the country’s UN-recognised government against the Houthi rebels.
Riyadh has also asked the US and a group of European countries including Germany, France, the UK and Italy to join a Red Sea coalition.
The EU already has a naval protection mission, Aspides, operating in the Red Sea and it remains unclear if the Houthis are mounting a general blockade or one directed solely at Saudi Arabia.
Houthi forces said on ۲۵ July they had hit “sensitive” oil transport sites inside Saudi Arabia linking eastern province oilfields to a Red Sea export hub.
If the Red Sea route is closed to Saudi shipping in addition to the strait of Hormuz blockade on the other side of the Arabian peninsula, the kingdom’s oil export will be severely constrained.
Up to ۸۰% of Saudi crude exports were shipped through the strait of Hormuz before the Iran war began. The Red Sea has therefore grown in importance, with more than half of Saudi oil now transported overland to loading terminals at the port city of Yanbu.
Saudi strikes in Iraq on Wednesday killed at least ۲۰ people as it hit back at Iraqi militia for striking its oil facilities. Donald Trump said the joint US-Saudi attacks had been mounted with the agreement of the Iraqi government, a claim that Baghdad did not confirm.
The Saudi defence minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, held an urgent meeting with Trump and JD Vance on Wednesday to discuss the next steps. The Saudis are keen to show they will defend themselves and their industry, but are not willing to escalate the war against Iran, arguing that the disagreements between the US and Iran can still be settled by diplomacy.
The troop movements inside Yemen involve concentrating forces for what could be an attack on al-Bayda, a governorate in central southern Yemen captured by the Houthis in ۲۰۲۰-۲۱, the sources said.
Fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has erupted in the past fortnight with the Houthis mounting attacks against Saudi Aramco facilities. The strikes inside Saudi Arabia came hours after Saudi airstrikes targeted Houthi-controlled sites in the port of Hodeidah and a third Saudi commercial vessel was attacked in the Red Sea.
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have been vying for control of Yemen for more than a decade and an uneasy status quo has unravelled over the past month.
The tensions inside Yemen would be reduced if the Gulf states and Iran could reach an agreement for the reopening of the strait of Hormuz. Talks between Oman and Iran are continuing, with Iran demanding that all shipping enter the strait through a northern route close to Iran’s coast.
