Pensioners are ‘big winners’ with triple-lock set to rise by ۳.۹%, lifting state pension to £۱۳,۰۰۰ – business live

Today’s UK jobs report is “very weak” beneath the surface, warns Mike Bell, head of market strategy for RBC BlueBay.

Today’s UK jobs data is much weaker below the surface than the headline number suggests. The headline data is being hugely flattered by a surge in admin and support service and education jobs. The vast majority of private sectors are shedding jobs. The cumulative decline in employment from the peak in some sectors is becoming quite alarming.

Bell adds:

Also of concern is that employment in professional services and construction is now starting to decline along with the longstanding weakness in sectors like retail, hospitality, manufacturing and tech. The decline in employment is broad based across regions too.

The government’s policy that pensioners whose only income is the state pension won’t pay tax creates “an unusual divide”, says Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter:

With the state pension set to rise over the tax-free personal allowance next year, Futcher says:

Someone relying solely on the State Pension will be protected from paying tax, while a pensioner who has built up even a relatively modest private pension could still find themselves facing a tax bill.

After spending decades encouraging people to save for retirement, the system risks creating a cliff edge where those who have made additional provision can be treated less favourably than those relying entirely on the State Pension.

Parents and carers in Great Britain spent ۱۲.۵% less on school uniform in the run-up to the start of this academic year, turning to promotions and second-hand items to keep expenses down as families struggled with the cost of living crisis.

The average spend on school uniform was £۵۴.۵۳ in the four weeks to ۶ September, down an eighth from £۶۲.۲۹ in the same period last year, according to the market research company Worldpanel by Numerator. Overall grocery inflation picked up to ۲.۳% from ۲.۱%.

The monthly report also showed that branded goods outpaced supermarkets’ cheaper own-label items for only the second time in the past year, with sales up ۳.۷% compared to ۲.۹% growth for own label – a reversal of a pattern that has defined much of this year. Despite this shift, shoppers have kept a strong appetite for promotions. Spending on grocery deals rose by £۲۴۳m, or ۷% year on year, significantly outstripping full-price sales growth of just ۱.۴%.

Grocery-only sales at Marks & Spencer jumped ۱۴.۸% year on year, measured by till spend, i.e. the value of sales (so also reflecting price rises).

Sales at Asda rose by ۰.۱% over the ۱۲ weeks to ۶ September, as the grocer returned to growth for the first time since March ۲۰۲۴. However, the Leeds-based retailer’s market share dipped to ۱۱.۵%, with a higher share of ۱۶% in the north of England. It outperformed the market in areas such as hot drinks, ice cream and chilled poultry.

The online grocersupermarket Ocado, with sales up by ۱۳.۳%, remained the fastest -growing grocer overall, used by ۴.۴% of households, with a slightly higher market share of ۲.۲%. Lidl moved up to ۸.۷% of the market, from ۸.۳% a year ago. Sales rose by ۸%, lifted by strong performance across confectionery, soft drinks and fresh produce.

Sales at Sainsbury’s were ۲.۹% higher than last year. The UK’s second largest grocer was just ahead of and Morrisons, where till spend rose by ۲.۸%, and the two supermarket chains maintained their previous market share of ۱۵.۲% and ۸.۴%, respectively.

At Tesco, the UK’s largest supermarket, sales rose by ۱.۷%, but its market share dipped to ۲۷.۸% from ۲۸.۱%. The German discounter Aldi’s sales edged ۰.۷% higher, giving it a slightly lower market of ۱۰.۶% share.

Sales at the Co-op were up by ۲.۹%, with market share flat at ۵.۵%. Waitrose sales grew by ۲.۸%, with its market share also stable, at ۴.۵%.

European stock markets are in the red this morning, as investors fret about the ongoing sell-off in the bond market and the rising oil price (the two are linked!).

Britain’s FTSE ۱۰۰ share index has lost ۹۰ points, or ۰.۸۵%, to ۱۰,۶۰۶ points this morning.

Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC ۴۰ are both down around ۰.۷%.

Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK, says “Financials and miners are bearing the brunt in Europe, while AI stocks are down across Asia and the US.”

Investors seem rattled that the US ۱۰-year Treasury yield has risen over ۵% this week.

Wilson adds:

The US Treasury ۱۰-year yield broke ۵% for the first time since ۲۰۲۳ on Monday and advanced to a ۱۹-year high as it touched ۵.۰۳% this morning…is this the point at which markets break?

۵.۲۵% is really when it gets dicey. Markets are pricing in a ۹۳% chance the Fed hikes rates this week. While there are lots of reasons behind the bond rout, BMO says Treasury yields and oil prices haven’t been this closely correlated for seven years.

Today’s jobs report also shows that the retail and hospitality sector continued to lose jobs over the summer.

The British Retail Consortium has calculated that there are ۱۲۲,۰۰۰ fewer jobs in retail than two years ago, which will limit job opportunities for young people.

Stephen Evans, chief executive at Learning and Work Institute (L&W), explains:

“Headline stability in the job stats masks two underlying and related challenges. The first is that one million young people are not in education, employment or training, risking long-term harm to their career prospects. Ramping up efforts to change that can’t wait.

The second is the stalling of job growth in parts of the private sectors like retail and hospitality, down ۱۵۰,۰۰۰ payroll jobs since last year. This limits first job opportunities for young people and reflects underlying economic weakness that ongoing international uncertainty won’t help.

The employment rate is relatively high by international standards, but risks trending in the wrong direction with ۳.۹ million people not in work but saying they want a job.”

The drop in company vacancies over the last few months suggests demand for workers is weakening, warns Suren Thiru, chief economist at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales:

“The ongoing drop in vacancies should set alarm bells ringing for the jobs market, as it suggests that demand for workers is wilting under the weight of soaring staffing costs, onerous regulation and increased automation.

“The UK labour market could be heading for a rockier autumn, as rising energy bills and pre-Budget tax uncertainty increasingly curb hiring intentions, resulting in moderately higher unemployment and lower pay growth.

The debate over the triple lock is set to be reignited by today’s news that the state pensions could rises by ۳.۹% next year.

So predicts Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club:

Pay growth is cooling, with regular earnings growth (including bonuses) easing to ۳.۹%, but that is hardly enough to make the inflation problem disappear. This snapshot points to a ۳.۹% rise in the state pension next April under the triple lock, with average earnings growth, the measure used for the calculation, being pushed higher by particularly strong public sector pay growth. Public sector pay is running at ۶.۳%, more than twice the ۲.۹% pace in the private sector, which reflects the impact of pay awards and the timing of them.

That’s likely to reignite the debate around the triple lock, particularly when government debt is already so high, and the cost of servicing it is painfully expensive. It may be even more controversial given that a pay measure which has been boosted by public sector wage awards is helping drive up the state pension bill at the same time as the government is already under pressure to contain spending and borrowing.

The bond market sell-off is continuing this morning, although the UK is avoiding the worst of it.

US government bonds, or Treasuries, are weakening, which is driving up the yield (or interest rate) on ۱۰-year bonds back over ۵% to the highest level since ۲۰۰۷.

UK bond yields are only slightly higher. They might be being suppressed by reports that the Bank of England will halt its sale of long-dated government bonds later this week.

That “quantitative tightening” programme has been blamed for boosting supplies of bonds in the market, pushing up yields.

If the state pension rises to £۱۳,۰۰۰ next year, it will probably breach the UK’s tax-free personal allowance (currently £۱۲,۵۷۰) – the amount you can earn before paying income tax.

However, pensioners who don’t receive any other income should still be exempt from paying tax if the state pension exceeds the personal allowance.

The House of Commons Library explains:

In the ۲۰۲۵ Budget the government announced the personal allowance would be frozen at its current level up to April ۲۰۳۱.

It also announced that pensioners whose sole income is the basic or new state pension would not have to pay small amounts of tax via simple assessment from ۲۰۲۷/۲۸ if the new or basic state pension exceeded the personal allowance from that point. To date the government has not published any further details of how this is to be done.

However, if you had a private pension too, or earnings from dividends or bank interest, then you would be taxed on the earnings over the personal allowance.

Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy, has spotted that private sector employment has dropped since the start of the year.

He says:

“The latest UK jobs numbers suggest the labour market remains subdued. Unemployment was little changed over the summer, but payroll employment and vacancies continued to drop.

“Payroll employment fell ۲۶,۰۰۰ in August, while July’s ۱۳,۰۰۰ fall was revised bigger. The public sector continued to flatter the numbers. Private-sector employment fell, leaving it almost ۱۴۱,۰۰۰ lower than at the start of the year, but the public sector headcount continued to rise, up almost ۳۶,۰۰۰ since January.

The Resolution Foundation have spotted that private sector pay growth in the UK has fallen to its weakest level since the start of the decade.

At just ۲.۹% per year in May-July, pay growth in the private sector is the joint lowest rate since October ۲۰۲۰.

That’s weaker than the overall total pay growth of ۳.۹%, which is likely to be used to set the triple lock next year (see earlier post).

Worryingly, Resolution Foundation also forecasts that wages are “set to shrink significantly in the second half of the year as inflation rises”.

Julia Diniz, economist at the Resolution Foundation, said:

“The big winners from today’s ONS data are pensioners, who are set for another large rise in the state pension next spring thanks to the triple lock.

“The biggest losers are workers in the private sector who are already earning less than they were last autumn. With wage growth slumping to its lowest rate in nearly six years, the UK’s private sector pay squeeze will tighten over the coming months as inflation rises.

“With unemployment settling at around five per cent and the number of job vacancies continuing to fall, conditions are also tough for those looking for work, especially young people.”

The slowdown in total pay growth over the summer, and the drop in payrolled employeers, may deter the Bank of England from raising interest rates at its next meeting later this week.

The money markets indicate there’s a ۶۷% chance that the Bank holds interest rates on Thursday.

Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, says the labour market still looks “sluggish”:

While economic growth continues to outpace expectations, the staggering fact is that it’s happening with fewer employees. Productivity growth, by definition, is pushing higher.

That said, there’s no evidence yet that the UK labour market is out of the woods just yet. For the MPC, this will matter. A still sluggish labour market will give the Bank some confidence that Bank Rate remains restrictive.

Supporters of the pension triple lock point out that it has lifted the living standards of the UK’s poorest pensioners.

Critics, though, argue that it has been more expensive than expected, and ties the government into increasing the pension bill each year regardless of economic conditions.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) have worked out that by ۲۰۵۰, the triple lock could have cost as much as £۴۰bn, although the calculations are rather murky.

They say:

• The triple lock has increased annual spending on the state pension by around £۱۶ billion, compared with uprating in line with average earnings growth since ۲۰۱۰.

• Current forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility suggest that the triple lock will push up state pension spending by £۶۰۰ million per year in ۲۰۲۹–۳۰, compared with a baseline of increases in line with average earnings.

• While this is small compared with total state pension spending (of £۱۵۴ billion per year), each increase adds up over time and the triple lock’s ratcheting effect permanently locks in increases in spending. This is both costly and very uncertain in the long run, because it depends on the exact path of inflation and earnings.

• We estimate that by ۲۰۵۰ keeping the triple lock would, in expectation, cost around £۲۰ billion per year in today’s terms. But the high uncertainty means that, in fact, the cost could reasonably be anywhere between £۵ billion and £۴۰ billion per year.

Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, is also expecting the state pension to rise by ۳.۹% next year under the triple-lock system.

Morrissey explains:

“Pensioners stand to be almost £۴۹۰ better off next year as today’s earnings figures have a huge impact on next year’s state pension. The data, alongside September’s inflation figure and ۲.۵%, is a key component of the triple lock formula used to increase state pensions. With CPI inflation currently sitting at ۲.۹% it seems increasingly likely that today’s ۳.۹% increase in average earnings will be the figure used.

This would put someone on the full new state pension on course to receive £۲۵۰.۷۰ per week from next April – up from the current £۲۴۱.۳۰ per week. Someone on a full basic state pension would receive £۱۹۲.۱۰ per week – up from £۱۸۴.۹۰.

The UK state pension is set to rise by ۳.۹% next year, it appears, following today’s wage growth figures.

Under the triple-lock system, pensions rise by the highest of average earnings, inflation, or ۲.۵%.

So today’s data showing that total pay rose by ۳.۹% over the last year is likely to be the figure used to set the pension increase (unless we get a surge of inflation in September’s data to ۴% or higher).

Assuming, of course, that the government continue to stick with the triple-lock – as there are calls to suspend it.

Jon Greer, head of retirement policy at Quilter, says:

“Today’s earnings figures show wage growth running at ۳.۹%, which puts a State Pension increase of a similar magnitude firmly on the cards next April under the triple lock.

“If confirmed, this would see the full New State Pension rise to over £۱۳,۰۰۰. While we will need to wait for September’s inflation figure before the uprating mechanism is formally confirmed, inflation is currently expected to remain below earnings growth, making an earnings-led increase the most likely outcome.

“For pensioners, another above-inflation increase will be welcome news and reflects the success of the triple lock in strengthening the value of the State Pension over time. The State Pension remains a crucial source of retirement income for millions of people and continues to provide the foundation upon which many build the rest of their retirement plans.

The estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased in the latest quarter.

The ONS esimates that in June to August there was a decrease of ۸,۰۰۰ (۱.۱%) to ۷۰۲,۰۰۰, compared with March to May ۲۰۲۶.

ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown says:

“Vacancies remain at their lowest level outside the pandemic period for more than a decade, with smaller businesses continuing to report that increased labour costs are affecting hiring decisions.”

The Office for National Statistics has also found that the number of ‘workforce jobs’ in the UK has dropped.

It says:

The estimated number of workforce jobs in the UK was ۳۶.۷ million in June ۲۰۲۶. This is a decrease of ۴۸,۰۰۰ (۰.۱%) from March ۲۰۲۶, with decreases of ۴۳,۰۰۰ (۱.۰%) in the self-employment jobs component and a decrease of ۱۰,۰۰۰ (۰.۰%) in the employee jobs component.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

UK companies continued to shed jobs over the summer, as wage growth slowed, new data shows.

The latest labour market report, just released, shows that the number of employees on company payrolls fell by ۲۶,۰۰۰ in August, and dropped by ۱۴۵,۰۰۰ compared with August ۲۰۲۵.

Despite that drop, though, the UK’s unemployment rate for people aged ۱۶ years and over remains at ۴.۹% for the May to July quarter.

Workers’ pay packets are being squeezed, though, especially in the private sector.

Total pay growth (including bonuses) slowed to ۳.۹% in May to July, down from ۴.۲% on the previous three-month period. Regular pay (excluding bonuses) growth stuck at ۳.۵%.

But while private sector pay rose by ۲.۹%, annual average regular earnings growth was ۶.۳% for the public sector. That’s because NHS staff pay rises were paid out earlier this year.

ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown says:

“The labour market remains broadly stable, with employment and unemployment rates largely unchanged in the latest period. However, payrolled employee numbers continue to edge down, with falls over the past year particularly evident in the retail and hospitality sectors.

“Regular wage growth has remained relatively stable in recent months, while total pay growth, which includes bonuses, has eased and was last lower nearly six years ago. There remains a notable difference between public and private sector pay growth, with public sector figures continuing to be affected by the timing of NHS pay awards this year.”

The agenda

• ۷am BST: UK labour market report

• ۸am BST: UK grocery inflation report

• ۱۰am BST: Eurozone industrial production report for July

• ۱.۳۰pm BST: US retail sales report