Key events
Has the war created a gap between Trump’s promises on affordability vs. the reality?
Eddie from Minnesota, USA, asks in a callout question: Has the war in Iran finally created a gap between this administration’s false promises and the reality of how unaffordable living in the U.S. has become?
Joseph Gedeon: Right, I don’t think the war created the gap so much as it made it impossible to ignore. Affordability has been the issue in American politics for about a decade…think about Bernie running in ۲۰۱۶ and ۲۰۲۰ with healthcare, student debt and wages. In the last election, Trump was running squarely on prices and inflation. Mamdani won in New York last year on rent freezes, affordability, free buses, etc, months before any of this. People knew that life was expensive pre-war.
Trump spent the ۲۰۲۴ campaign saying he’d bring prices down, including a pledge to slash energy costs, and he’s spent a lot of his time back in office insisting things are going great and that worrying about pesky affordability is overblown (anyone else remember when he was coming at the Biden administration from the other side???). One obvious wrinkle is January of this year, when the EIA was forecasting gas prices to fall this year, then he kicks off his surprise war alongside Israel, and inflation has instead gone from ۲.۴% that month to ۳.۴% by July. Vance himself said keeping oil and gas cheap was “goal number one”. As you know, the war is the opposite of cheap: it has cost $۴۵.۱ billion so far, and that’s not the full bill. It doesn’t include repairs to damaged bases and buildings — and the CBO estimates it could keep costing another $۲-۳ billion a month. The CBO also says the war will keep inflation about half a point higher than it otherwise would have been into early ۲۰۲۷.
What was that closing line from ۱۹۸۴ again?
Democrats might win in November – does that change anything?
NorthLondonIsRed asks: Since Congress’s war powers resolution against Trump’s Iran war was purely symbolic, how much real leverage would a Democratic-controlled Congress actually have to rein in the war after the midterms – or is this more about punishing Trump electorally than changing policy?
Robert Tait: A Democrat-controlled Congress could actually hold substantial powers to impede, hinder and scrutinize the White House’s conduct of the war. There is little doubt that the Iran leadership is aware of this and, consequently, have been prepared to keep fighting at least until a new Congress is sworn in. Congress’s most immediate impact could be its power of the purse. It is Congress that holds constitutional authority to appropriate funds for military operations. In practical terms, it could attach language to defense appropriations forbidding the use of congressionally-mandated funds for kinetic action against Iran without prior congressional authorization. It could withhold funds or refuse to grant supplemental war appropriations. Such moves could starve the operation of funds over time. It would not necessarily halt hostilities immediately. Trump has shown willingness to override Congress and break democratic norms, and he is likely, in the short term, to raid other budgetary areas to get the funds. But Congress’s actions would be more than symbolic. Besides budgetary considerations, it also has the power to stage hearings holding Pentagon and intelligence officials accountable under oath for their decisions, a spectacle that has the potential to put the war’s unpopularity at the forefront of public consciousness.
Will Democrats regaining control of congress be enough to end the war?
Roxanne Magnuson from Oregon, USA asks in a reader callout: Even if Democrats are successful in regaining the congressional balance, will that be enough influence to end this war? How can it be accomplished?
Lauren Gambino: Not necessarily. Trump has said he thinks Iran is waiting for the midterm elections to reach a deal, hoping that Republican losses will give Tehran an edge in negotiations. If he’s right, the post-election period could see efforts to reach a lasting deal even before a new Congress is sworn in in January. But if that doesn’t happen, and assuming Democrats win at least one chamber of Congress, they could use their new powers to launch public hearings, subpoena defense officials and generally demand more transparency regarding the war’s objectives and costs – both in terms of lives and taxpayer dollars. For example, my colleague Joseph has written extensively about Democrats’ demands for more information about the treatment of servicemembers wounded in the war, as well as the decision-making that led to a ۲۸ February strike on a school in Minab, Iran, which killed more than ۱۵۰ civilians, most of them children.
Democrats have promised to continue to introduce war powers resolutions as a symbol of the growing bipartisan discontent with the conflict, though Trump would retain the ultimate veto power.
Democrats could also leverage Congress’s “power of the purse” to try to reign Trump in through the budget process – ie “defunding” the war. The Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan Congressional scorekeeper, estimates the war will cost a minimum of $۲bn a month – so, in theory, the next time the White House asks for additional money to fund the war, Democrats could say no.
We’re live and taking your questions!
Andrew Roth, Joseph Gedeon, Lauren Gambino, Will Craft and Robert Tait are answering your questions now.
Welcome to the conversation
Welcome to our latest US midterms live Q&A – just over a month away from election day on ۳ November.
The war with Iran has had major implications for Americans’ wallets, government spending and US foreign policy. It’s has also been an important factor in reshaping the political landscape as the war enters its eighth month, with the ۲۰۲۶ US midterms quickly approaching.
Our team of reporters has helped readers understand the costs of the war and political consequences for Trump and candidates running in November. So, how could the war affect US voters at the polls?
Joining us on Tuesday at ۱۲pm ET are senior political correspondent Lauren Gambino, political breaking news reporter Joseph Gedeon, global affairs correspondent Andrew Roth, data editor Will Craft and political correspondent Robert Tait.
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The US politics team is hosting a series of reader Q&As leading up to the November US midterm elections. See our first two conversations, here:
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