Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall on the US Gulf coast Friday night, was forecast to bring a dangerous storm surge, significant rainfall, flooding and strong winds across the US Gulf coast this weekend. Millions of people across several states, including Florida, Georgia and Alabama, were under evacuation orders as officials prepared for the storm. All three states issued states of emergency.
The hurricane, the first in the Atlantic in what has turned into a very late ۲۰۲۶ season, made landfall as a category ۲ storm, with sustained winds of ۱۰۵ mph.
The National Weather Service warned that Isaias could produce a “life-threatening storm surge” along parts of the northern Gulf coast, which occurs when rising ocean water moves inland from the coastline.
۱. What are forecasters saying about where Isaias will hit and how hard?
Isaias made landfall along the northern Gulf coast late Friday as a category ۲ storm.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned it would bring a “life threatening” storm surge and “devastating winds likely across the Florida panhandle and Alabama coasts”.
Isaias could bring ۴-۸in of rain, with locally higher totals up to ۱۵in (۳۸۰mm), across parts of the Gulf coast. Forecasters warned of significant flash and river flooding, especially in southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and south-western Georgia.
Hurricane-force winds were expected to spread inland as far as ۱۰۰ miles (۱۶۰km) from the Alabama coast, the NHC said. There were also warnings of possible tornadoes late Friday or Saturday in its outer band of rains.
The NHC said: “Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of ۲ to ۵ inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to ۱۰ inches are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas.”
۲. What do the emergency response preparations look like?
Florida, Georgia and Alabama have declared states of emergencies, with mandatory evacuations ordered in some coastal communities. Numerous evacuation shelters have opened across Florida, Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi, with more than ۳۷۰ trained American Red Cross (Arc) disaster workers supporting the response. The Arc is also pre-positioning cots, blankets, shelf-stable meals and other emergency supplies across the region.
About ۵,۰۰۰ national guard troops were expected to mobilize in Florida, where at least four school districts cancelled late-week classes.
Before the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant share of offshore production in the Gulf, which accounts for almost ۱۵% of crude pumped annually in the US.
۳. How come this season’s first Atlantic hurricane is so late? Is El Niño a factor?
The El Niño climate pattern is a factor in this year’s quieter Atlantic hurricane season. While it warms sea surface temperatures in the Pacific where storm activity has been greater, it also increases wind shear – changes in wind speed and direction with height – over the Atlantic, which can disrupt tropical storms before they strengthen into hurricanes.
The hurricane season begins ۱ June and runs up to the end of November with the height of the season usually from the middle of August to the middle of October.
The last hurricane to make landfall in the US was Hurricane Milton, which came ashore near Florida’s Siesta Key on ۹ October ۲۰۲۴. It followed Hurricane Helene a month earlier, which killed more than ۲۵۰ people and was the deadliest hurricane to hit the mainland US since Hurricane Katrina in ۲۰o۵.
۴. What are storm surges and where are they expected to hit?
As a hurricane approaches a coast, the churning winds force ocean water up on to land; atmospheric pressure from the storm also helps squeeze the water ashore. The shallower the continental shelf, the higher the threat of a dangerous surge. The water may take a couple of days to fully subside.
Storm surge was expected from south-east Louisiana to Suwannee, in north-east Florida, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa).
Up to ۹ft of storm surge is forecast between Dauphin Island, Alabama, and Indian Pass, Florida.
Although state officials have declared their preparedness, Isaias will be a key test of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (Fema) ability to respond to a major hurricane after significant staffing cuts and an overhaul of the agency under the Trump administration. About ۱۷% of Fema’s workforce left in fiscal year ۲۰۲۵, following Trump’s push to downsize the agency and shift more responsibility to states.
The agency’s staffing reductions were not carried out systematically to ensure Fema could still meet its statutory obligations, said Chris Currie, director of homeland security and justice at the GAO. “It’s not whether Fema is going to respond. They’re going to respond. It’s more about the depth,” Currie said.
Fema, however, said: “FEMA Incident Management Assistance Teams are deploying to Alabama and Florida, and FEMA personnel are embedded in state emergency operations centers. FEMA is also prepositioning emergency supplies at Maxwell air force base in Montgomery, Alabama, to supplement state resources if requested.”
