Italy’s parliament is voting on Thursday on a new electoral law that would make it easier for election winners to form a majority government.
The law, proposed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, would award extra seats to any party or coalition that obtains more than ۴۲ percent of seats in both parliamentary chambers, ensuring it holds a majority.
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Meloni has framed the legislation as a route to greater stability in Italy’s political system, which has often been run by fragile coalition governments. Her critics, however, say the move is actually aimed at boosting her own chances in elections next year.
Here’s what we know about the electoral law and what it means for Italian politics:
What is Italy’s current electoral system?
Italy currently has a mixed electoral system for its ۶۰۰-seat parliament, with about ۳۶ percent of members of parliament elected directly in constituencies where the candidate with the most votes wins, and the rest decided through proportional representation.
The system, called “Rosatellum”, has been in place since ۲۰۱۷. It encourages coalition-building but can produce fractured results that make a governing majority hard to forge.
What would the new law change?
The new legislation would replace the mixed electoral system with a fully proportional one, as well as awarding extra seats to the party or coalition that wins the most seats if it secures at least ۴۲ percent in both chambers.
The bonus would be as many as ۷۰ seats in the ۴۰۰-member Chamber of Deputies, the lower house, and up to ۳۵ seats in the Senate, which has ۲۰۰ elected members.
That means if a party or coalition meets the ۴۲ percent share threshold in both chambers, it would have stronger power to govern. If no party or coalition meets the threshold, representation would be decided proportionally.
The new law would also force coalitions to announce their candidates for prime minister before the elections. Rado Fonda, head of research at Italian pollster SWG, told the Reuters news agency this provision could “prove problematic for the centre-left, potentially forcing an early leadership contest and exposing divisions that could weaken the bloc”.
Meloni, who currently leads the country’s longest-serving government since World War II, has said the reform will help stabilise the country rather than serve any one political group. “Whoever wins the elections will have the numbers to govern,” she said.
What stage is the legislation at?
The proposed law has already been approved by the Senate and must now undergo a final secret-ballot vote in the Chamber of Deputies.
Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Rome’s Luiss Guido Carli University, predicted that the law is “extremely likely” to pass.
If it fails, Meloni has said she will resign.
Why is the legislation controversial?
Opponents say the law is undemocratic because it could potentially grant a winning coalition a disproportionate level of power in parliament.
They also say that the legislation is intended to favour Meloni, whose Brothers of Italy party (Fdl) is bracing for a tough election battle next year.
Riccardo Magi, head of the liberal More Europe party, who is on a hunger strike to protest the proposed reform, has called it an “anti-democratic law” that risks giving a minority bloc a huge majority in parliament.
Senator Matteo Renzi, who leads the Italia Viva party, has accused Italy’s governing coalition of pushing the electoral reform due to a fear of losing power.
Other critics have pointed out that the law would do little to stabilise the political system if no party or coalition reaches the ۴۲ percent threshold in both chambers – a relatively high bar.
“This could produce a hung parliament, making post-electoral negotiations necessary to form a government,” Vincenzo Emanuele, a political science professor at Luiss Guido Carli University in Rome and a member of the Italian Center for Electoral Studies (CISE), told Al Jazeera. “Even relatively small changes in coalition composition could make the difference between a clear parliamentary majority and a situation of political deadlock.”
When are Italy’s next elections, and what do the polls show?
Italy’s next general election must be held by December ۲۲, ۲۰۲۷, although the government can call elections earlier if it wishes.
Currently, Meloni’s Fdl is polling ahead of all other parties, with ۲۷ percent support, according to Politico’s polling aggregator. Her coalition partners, Lega and Forza Italia, have a combined ۱۲ percent support, according to Politico, bringing the coalition share to ۳۹ percent.
Fdl’s polling has been dented by support for a new far-right group, Futuro Nazionale (National Future), Reuters reported. It currently has ۷.۸ percent support, according to Italian polling institute SWG.
In opposition, the Democratic Party (PD) has ۲۱ percent support, the Five Star Movement (M۵S) has ۱۲ percent and the Alliance of Greens and Left (AVS) has ۶ percent, according to Politico. The Italy Viva (IV) and More Europe parties have ۲ percent support each.
Emanuele said the current landscape means the proposed electoral law would not necessarily favour Meloni and could even benefit the opposition.
He said recent simulations by the CISE have shown that a centre-left coalition including the PD and M۵S could potentially reach ۴۴ percent of the vote, securing a “comfortable parliamentary majority”, though that could change if Meloni allies with National Future.
“The reform does not inherently favour the incumbent government: Its effects will depend crucially on how the competing coalitions are formed,” said Emanuele.
