Iranian Kurdish parties in Iraq face a delicate balance amid Iran attacks

Erbil, Iraq – Iranian Kurdish opposition parties have been on high alert since the United States-Israel strikes on Iran began on February ۲۸. Their bases in the semi-autonomous Kurdish Region of Iraq and inside Iran itself have been thrust onto the front lines of the war.

The possibility of Iranian Kurdish fighters entering the conflict to topple the Iranian government has also been widely discussed. Both US President Donald Trump and Israel have suggested that arming these fighters could tip the balance of power inside Iran, where Kurds make up about ۱۰ percent of the population.

Several leaders of these parties have told Al Jazeera they command military formations and organisational structures inside Kurdish areas in Iran, in addition to headquarters and bases in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq.

Kurdish groups from both sides of the border flourished after Iraq’s defeat in the ۱۹۹۰-۱۹۹۱ Gulf War led to the creation of a no-fly zone in northern Iraq and self-rule by the Kurdistan Regional Government.

Iranian Kurdish groups, from the left to the nationalists, were particularly well insulated following the US-led invasion of Iraq in ۲۰۰۳.

On February ۲۲, ۲۰۲۶, five Kurdish groups based in Iraq and western Iran formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in response to the suppression of the protests. Since the war began, their military and political assets in Iraq have been heavily attacked by Iranian drones and missiles.

Kako Alyar, a member of the political bureau of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, claimed his party had sleeper cells and networks that participated in antigovernment protests in Iran, which took place in December and January, until being violently crushed by security forces.

He also said that since the start of the war, ۱۳ fighters connected to his party have been killed in Iranian attacks.

“The outbreak of war has changed the circumstances within the Kurdish areas, especially after the Iranian authorities tightened security measures and suppressed the protests,” Alyar explained.

“The party has not received any military assistance from the United States, nor from European or Arab countries, despite the demands to get such support.”

US President Donald Trump has flip-flopped on the role of Kurdish groups in the US-Israel military campaign. But there have also been reports of US intelligence working with Kurdish fighters and that areas along the Iraq-Iran border have been particularly heavily attacked since the start of the war. Some have interpreted this as a sign that Washington might be serious about ground operations inside Iran by Iranian Kurdish groups.

Iranian opposition fighters are sceptical about the success of any potential large-scale military operation in Kurdish areas in Iran, saying it would be a hugely risky endeavour and would likely lead to huge casualties for their side.

“At the present time, there are risks, especially given the heavy deployment of Iranian forces in the Kurdish areas and along the border with the Kurdistan region,” Alyar said.

The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government had requested Iranian Kurdish parties to refrain from activities that could harm local security and interests, given the Iranian response.

Various Iranian Kurdish groups, reportedly with thousands of fighters between them, have long opposed Tehran from their bases in northern Iraq and along the Iraq-Iran border.

But Iranian opposition leaders are wary of US intentions regarding Iran, suggesting they have not seen any real intention of regime change.

”They [the US] don’t want to support forces inside Iran with the aim of toppling the regime. The objective is to weaken the Iranian influence in the Middle East,” Rebaz Sharifi, a leader in the opposition Kurdistan Freedom Party of Iran, told Al Jazeera.

Sharifi rejected claims circulating on social media that his group had received weapons or military assistance from the US or other countries.

Still, the Iranian military has launched military operations against Iranian Kurdish groups in northern Iraq, including reports on Friday of strikes on bases there.

Iranian state media have acknowledged attacks on “anti-Iran separatist forces” in hard-to-reach areas near the Iran-Iraq border.

Sharifi estimates his party’s bases and positions have been attacked more than ۸۰ times since the beginning of the war.

The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government had put pressure on Iranian Kurdish parties to limit their movements before this current war, in a bid to protect the autonomous region. Still, within hours of the US-Israel attacks on Iran in February, retaliatory attacks on US assets in Iraq’s Kurdish region began and dragged the region into the conflict. Economic targets, such as oil fields, have also been hit in suspected drone and missile attacks.

“We have thousands of fighters… We could have done more inside Iran, but we place the security and stability of the Kurdistan Region at the top of our priorities, and we do not want to harm the Kurds in Iraq,” Sharifi said.

Iranian-linked fighter groups in Iraq have also been heavily attacked in US strikes, including after attacks on Saudi Arabia blamed on these groups this week.

Difficult equation

Iraq as a whole came under multiple attacks from pro-Iran groups and Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The US has also carried out attacks against these Iraqi groups.

Soran Palani, an expert on Iranian affairs and an Iranian Kurdish citizen, believes that the Iranian Kurdish parties face a highly complex equation.

“Iraq’s Kurdistan Region has given these parties a space for political, organisational, and military activity, but at the same time it has made the region vulnerable to the repercussions of any confrontation between them and Tehran,” Palani said.

“The absence of direct Arab, European, and American support represents one of the most prominent factors preventing the Iranian Kurdish parties from making a decision to escalate,” he explained, adding that Iran, over the past years, has managed to build extensive influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, in addition to supporting its allies in the Palestinian territory.

“Arab countries have not in return provided similar support to the Arab-Iranian opposition, particularly in the Ahwaz region… This reality makes it difficult to expect the Iranian Kurdish parties to obtain direct Arab support should they decide to open a military front inside Iran,” he said.

The Iraqi government said Iraq must not be a launchpad for attacks against neighbouring countries.

Now, one of the most important questions for the Iranian Kurdish parties is whether the current war will turn into a project for regime change in Tehran.

For many Kurds inside Iran and abroad, a collapse in the regime could bring a historic opportunity, but, at the same time, it could lead to a major security vacuum and turmoil. The next phase of this conflict could be crucial for Iranian Kurds, Iran, the US, Iraq and the wider region.