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Wildfires cast a pall of smoke this week over Greater Manchester, whose former mayor Andy Burnham stands on the threshold of No ۱۰. Amid three UK heatwaves so far this year, which have killed thousands of people in England and Wales, damaged harvests and left children crying in classrooms, the new prime minister’s plans for the climate crisis remain as shrouded as his city.
“Burnham has been very quiet about the climate [crisis] so far,” says Chris Venables, an environmental campaigner and fellow at the Green Alliance thinktank. “I don’t think [it] is at the forefront of his mind, but that does not mean he will water down this agenda.”
Ed Miliband, the UK’s champion of climate action as energy secretary, is the target of vitriol from rightwing media and politicians. Burnham has been considering him for chancellor of the exchequer, which would signal a major boost for policies to achieve low-carbon economic growth. Rivals have been briefing that Miliband has lost out to the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, which could be a setback to climate policy.
But while Burnham may be getting away with ignoring the climate for now, the crisis is not ignoring Britain. The heatwaves in May and June, which killed about ۲,۷۰۰ people, also hit the UK’s businesses to the tune of at least £۲.۴bn in lost productivity alone. Another poor harvest would be the fourth since ۲۰۲۰, hurting farmers and consumers with higher shopping bills. If a fossil fuel-driven “super El Niño” weather system strikes as forecast around the world, food prices will soar further.
Rescuing the British economy is top of the prime ministerial to-do list; rescuing the climate, and nature, is inseparable from that, says Craig Bennett, the chief executive of the Wildlife Trusts. “We treat these things as if they’re in silos, but it’s much better to solve them in a holistic and joined-up way,” he says. “Flourishing nature and tackling the energy crisis are good for our economy, for our national security – as the joint intelligence committee found – and for health, welfare, wellbeing.” So the question is: how green is Andy Burnham?
Burnham’s record in Manchester suggests a clear understanding of the challenge. He set a local target of reaching net zero carbon emissions by ۲۰۳۸; expanded and began to electrify the bus services; embarked on programmes of home insulation; and has enthused about green growth.
But while he rejected fracking for the north-west of England, Burnham has been less clear about the North Sea, saying he was “open-minded” about the prospect of more drilling. Leading economists, including Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, have said new fields in the North Sea will not bring down UK fuel prices, or stimulate growth, but rows over policy persist.
Burnham has been accused of watering down his green ambitions at the first sign of trouble: in ۲۰۲۲ he “pressed pause” on a clean air zone in Manchester that would have restricted polluting cars, after opposition and at a cost of about £۱۰۰m. London’s later success with Sadiq Khan’s ultra-low emissions zone showed such measures can overcome opposition and create health benefits.
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and businesses warned this week that high energy prices were crippling the UK economy. The Tories and Reform UK, along with some sections of Labour including the former prime minister Tony Blair, blame this (with scant evidence) on policies to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by ۲۰۵۰. But renewable energy is now cheap, say many economists – it requires no costly inputs once constructed, creates jobs and bolsters the UK economy by removing dependence on volatile gas and oil. Which way will Burnham lean?
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His philosophy of “Manchesterism” offers clues. He prizes reindustrialisation, and local solutions to social and economic problems. Some have tried to interpret this as going for growth at all costs, including high-carbon and fossil-fuelled growth. But that would be wrong, according to Robbie Macpherson, a Kennedy scholar at Harvard University and former head of the parliamentary all-party climate group. “Cheaper energy, economic growth, good jobs and five more years in power is the prize [for Burnham],” he says. “An ecosystem of local authorities, workers, environmentalists and communities around the country are racing down this path already and they stand ready to support Burnham in taking the rapid growth of Britain’s green sector to the next level. Burnham just needs to make clear that this agenda will run through the veins of the government he leads.”
Reindustrialisation can also be green – the low-carbon economy is worth £۱۰۰bn a year and supports more than ۱m jobs that pay higher than average, CBI data recently showed.
Burnham also favours public control of utilities. His instinct that the private sector does not hold all the answers could be helpful in changing how the UK energy market works.
To bring down bills, says Ed Matthew, the UK director of the E۳G thinktank, Burnham must be robustly interventionist in the market. “He needs to confront the reality that no amount of North Sea drilling will bring down energy bills,” argues Matthew. “To do that he must reform the energy market to stop gas setting the price of electricity, and remove all levies on electricity bills for households, business and industry. That would turbo boost the UK economy and deliver real savings for households.”
One of the key decisions Burnham will face is over the future of the Jackdaw gasfield, a consultation on which will run until ۸ August. Along with the Rosebank oilfield west of Shetland, it is one of two big potential drilling sites in UK waters that could slip through Labour’s manifesto promise to ban new licences, as they are already within the planning process. Speculation is growing that Burnham could green-light Jackdaw, as a sop to rightwingers and some unions. Would this spell the end of any green credentials?
Not necessarily, according to more than one expert the Guardian spoke to. “Having Miliband in some position of power would be a greater win for the climate than what happens to Jackdaw,” says one. “It’s about the bigger picture now.”
