Parliamentary byelections can generate all sorts of emotional responses, often very strong ones. But for the main contenders in Holborn and St Pancras, the feeling this morning might be more prosaic: relief.
For Labour, Sagal Abdi-Wali’s victory with just over ۴۵% of the total vote was widely expected, but it allows the party to credibly claim Andy Burnham as a politician able to reach people in both Reform-leaning areas such as Makerfield, and in Green-friendly inner cities.
Retaining a constituency formerly held by your last leader, Keir Starmer, and which has been overwhelmingly Labour since it was created in ۱۹۸۳, is in normal political times not that notable an achievement, but these are not normal times.
A low turnout of ۳۸.۷% and Abdi-Wali’s numerically modest ۳,۳۶۴ majority that resulted might not appear the greatest endorsement of the government, but it is also likely to have been in part due to the widespread assumption that Labour would win.
And what of the Greens, and particularly Zack Polanski, the party’s leader in England and Wales, who decided to go for the high-profile seat himself? Again, it may sound curious to think he would be happy with second place, but after the most challenging week of his political life it could have been worse.
Polanski got just under ۳۳% of the vote, well above anyone else apart from Abdi-Wali, a proportion which shows that in an another election, and up against a Labour party not enjoying a Burnham bounce, the Greens could still be highly competitive in seats like these.
When Polanski said he wanted to stand, the hope was for another wave of enthusiasm and publicity of the sort that propelled Hannah Spencer to victory in February in another supposedly safe Labour seat, Gorton and Denton.
He will nonetheless be quietly pleased that the result does not seem to have shown much of a shedding of Green votes after criticisms of, and deep divisions in, the party since it adopted a highly controversial policy on Zionism and Israel last weekend.
The new policy, decided by members at the Greens’ annual conference, equates Zionism, the movement for a Jewish state, with racism, and calls for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state. It is publicly opposed by four of the party’s five MPs, with numerous councillors distancing themselves as well and a handful resigning.
Polanski’s decision to not take a side, and even to absent himself from Sunday’s debate so he could campaign in the byelection, has prompted deep unease among some Greens, who termed it a failure of leadership.
It was notable that after the result, Polanski had to insist that he intended to stay as Green leader. “Yes absolutely, that’s what leaders do,” he replied.
While some in the Greens had questioned Polanski’s decision to contest a seat in north London, rather than east London, where he lives, his allies make the point that Nigel Farage took eight tries to become an MP.
Either way, the result has not made Polanski’s position any worse. Had the Green vote collapsed he would have been under very intense pressure. As it stands, he must try to reassure sceptics in the party before seeking re-election in a year from now, under the party’s policy of two-year terms for leaders.
And what of the others? The Conservatives will be quietly happy with beating Reform UK to take third place, their ۷.۱% being almost exactly the same proportion of votes as they took in ۲۰۲۴.
This might not seem like much of an achievement, but the party’s national poll ratings remain stubbornly below ۲۰۲۴ levels, and thus stasis will most likely be claimed as more evidence of a Badenoch bounce.
Way down in fifth place, the emotions begin the switch. While they are byelection specialists, the Liberal Democrats were never going to win here, but they had put in at least some effort to boost their vote, with MPs going out this week to knock on doors.
Coming behind Reform on just over ۳% of the vote will be a disappointment. Amid the noisy debates over the leadership of Labour, the Tories and Greens, it can be easy to overlook the disquiet among some of Ed Davey’s MPs that the Lib Dems do not appear to be cutting through. He will not be feeling relief this morning.
