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Keir Starmer entered ۱۰ Downing St on a wave of optimism after a landslide victory in the ۲۰۲۴ general election. His Labour party had overturned a defeat in ۲۰۱۹ in which the party crashed to its worst result since ۱۹۳۵. Labour won ۴۱۲ seats, just a few shy of the ۴۱۸ won by Tony Blair in ۱۹۹۷, a result that gave Labour a leader in office for a decade.
But a little more than two years after he came to power, Starmer’s tenure is over. Over the past ۲۴ months the popularity of the human-rights lawyer turned prime minister has plummeted, from a net approval rating of -۳ when he took office, to -۶۶ by September ۲۰۲۵ – the lowest net approval rating recorded by Ipsos for any prime minister since ۱۹۷۷.
As Andy Burnham takes over, Guardian data analysis reveals where Starmer lost support – among the ranks of his own MPs and among the electorate – and provides some insight about the bear traps Burnham’s team will want to avoid.
The unions
When the Labour party was formed at the turn of the ۲۰th century, it was synonymous with the trade union movement. But over the last half century the relationship has become increasingly strained, with the chart below revealing a steady decline in union donations over the past ۲۰ years. But the chart also reveals that a fracture that opened under Neil Kinnock, and widened with Blair, continued to worsen under Starmer, reaching its lowest point for any full year in ۲۰۲۵.
Starmer ran into trouble with the unions, ۱۱ of which are affiliated to Labour, soon after becoming leader in ۲۰۲۰. In ۲۰۲۲ the then leader of the opposition sacked the frontbencher Sam Tarry for doing broadcast interviews from a rail strike picket line. A year later, Sharon Graham, the general secretary of Unite, put Starmer “on notice”, saying the support of Britain’s second-largest union should not be treated as a “blank cheque”. As a row about bin strikes in Birmingham turned increasingly acrimonious, Unite suspended the membership of the then deputy Labour leader, Angela Rayner, and in March this year it reduced its membership fees to Labour by more than half a million pounds.
Unions hailed a “generational shift” for workers’ rights when Starmer’s government pushed through its employment rights bill, but there seemed to be little real warmth between the prime minister and union leaders. Two other major unions, the GMB and Prospect, who between them represent tens of thousands of energy workers, criticised Starmer’s net zero policies, while a recent poll said support for Labour and Reform UK was tied at ۲۸% among trade union members, suggesting a ۲۰-point drop in union backing for Labour since the ۲۰۲۴ general election.
How is Burnham going to turn it around? He has not always had a comfortable relationship with trade unions. Standing for the Labour leadership after the ۲۰۱۵ election loss, Burnham refused union funds and emphasised his fiscal discipline, but lost heavily to Jeremy Corbyn.
But during this campaign he met union leaders at the headquarters of the public sector union Unison and used his first speech to call for “greater public control of essential services”, a long-cherished union aim. Burnham is, according to one union leader, “in listening mode”.
However, one potential flashpoint has already emerged: Burnham’s choice for chancellor. Unite and the GMB, who represent oil and gas workers, have been openly critical of the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, who had until recently been seen as a favourite for the role, whereas Unison has backed him, and will be disappointed should he be denied the role. When eight of the affiliated unions backed Burnham, he said he was “deeply grateful” for the unified support. He will now be keen to keep it.
Muslim communities
The conflict between Israel and Palestine has long been a divisive issue within Labour. The party has supported the creation of the state of Israel since its inception, but it has been more critical of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza under a series of hardline rightwing leaders.
Since Starmer took office few topics have triggered more ire in his critics. Perhaps in part because of his efforts to stamp out antisemitism in the Labour party, he struggled when the most recent conflict began.
Soon after Hamas launched a devastating attack on Israel in October ۲۰۲۳, Starmer gave an interview saying Israel had “the right” to withhold power and water from Gaza. When some councillors left the party as a result, a senior Labour source was quoted as saying it was a sign the party was “shaking off the fleas”.
Starmer’s team attempted to clarify his LBC remarks, but the interview had a disastrous impact both on his support among some of his backbenchers and, crucially, among Muslim voters, long seen as one of Labour’s staunchest bases of support.
In January ۲۰۲۴, Starmer’s office was polling Muslim voters and finding cause for concern. By February, Starmer had backed a ceasefire, and then in September last year the government formally recognised Palestine as an independent state.
A Savanta poll in June ۲۰۲۴ found that ۶۳% of British Muslims were likely to support Labour in the general election the following month, but a recent poll, by JL Partners for Policy Exchange, found ۶۰% would now consider voting for Gaza-supporting independents to stop the party, while around half would consider voting Green for the same reason. The Green leader, Zack Polanski, has taken an avowedly pro-Palestinian stance, describing Israel’s military actions as a “genocide in Gaza” and a campaign of “collective punishment”, and has called for a ban on all UK arms exports to Israel and wider sanctions.
Burnham has sought to distance himself from Starmer on the conflict, apologising for Labour’s initial response to Israel’s military action in Gaza in one of his few policy interventions since returning to parliament last month. But some critics have looked askance at the choice of James Purnell, a former chair of Labour Friends of Israel, as his chief of staff. Others suggest a reversal of the proscription of Palestine Action would show bolder intent and could win back some of the ۳.۹ million Muslims in England and Wales.
Elements of the parliamentary Labour party
After taking power, Starmer immediately took a hard line against dissent, suspending seven leftwing MPs for rebelling and voting for an amendment to abolish the two-child benefit cap. Their stance was supported by most Labour MPs and eventually adopted by Starmer who said the repeal of the policy was his “proudest moment” as prime minister.
Once considered the nuclear option, Starmer withdrew the whip from more of his MPs than any other Labour leader since at least ۱۹۸۸. It didn’t seem to help. In a seething rebellion against Starmer’s welfare bill, ۴۷ Labour MPs broke the whip despite major concessions made by ministers, and another U-turn. Starmer, facing accusations of being aloof and disconnected from his MPs’ concerns, went on to remove the whip from four backbenchers for repeatedly breaching discipline, including over the cut to the winter fuel allowance and welfare changes.
In a letter to the parliamentary Labour party, Burnham has told MPs he will never use party discipline to “stifle debate”. Starmer’s strict approach would be shelved, he said: “I want to create a different culture where MPs are happy and fulfilled doing their jobs, where everyone has a part to play, and where opinions and approaches are respected, even where there’s difference.” The whips’ office should not be regarded as something to be feared, but rather, as “our HR department”, he added.
Without whipping, however, Burnham could find his ۴۰۳ MPs, who give him a majority of ۱۵۶ seats, an unruly bunch to manage.
Some Starmer loyalists are angry that Louise Haigh admitted she and Burnham began plotting to remove Starmer less than a year into his tenure. MPs in London and the south-east may be nervous about Burnham’s emphasis on “Manchesterism”, or feel alienated by his decision to move part of No ۱۰’s team north. Others may be anxious about his apparent desire to rethink council tax, which could hit their voters, while environmentally focused MPs will be looking for any hint that Burnham is planning to row back on net zero commitments.
“Red wall” MPs will probably urge Burnham to retain a hard line on immigration, while others will be hoping for a softening of Shabana Mahmood’s proposals. Burnham has called for unity, but he may struggle to achieve it.
Leftwing voters
When Starmer ran to be Labour leader, he presented himself to members as a continuity candidate to Jeremy Corbyn, making ۱۰ left-pleasing policy pledges, from public ownership of utilities to ending student tuition fees.
But the pledges were soon dropped and by the end of ۲۰۲۰, Corbyn, whom Starmer had described as a “friend” during the campaign, had been suspended from the party. It was, according to leftwingers in the party, a purge, and many of those who were left remained resentful for the rest of his premiership.
Other policies have also contributed to Starmer’s deep unpopularity among leftwingers, both in the party and the wider electorate. A ban on Palestine Action, which uses direct action to mainly target Israeli weapons factories in the UK and their supply chain, has been in place since July last year. The court of appeal recently ruled that the ban was lawful, but it has resulted in thousands of arrests, many of retired people, including some for holding signs displaying statements such as: “I oppose genocide, I support Palestine Action”.
A speech in which Starmer described the UK as being in danger of becoming an “island of strangers” without tough curbs on immigration was criticised for seeming to echo Enoch Powell’s infamous ۱۹۶۸ “rivers of blood” speech in which Powell claimed Britain’s white population would be “strangers in their own country”.
Starmer later said he “deeply regretted” the speech, adding that he should have read it more carefully and “held it up to the light a bit more”. But he continued to support radical changes to immigration policy put forward by the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, including an attempt to change the way the European convention on human rights is interpreted by judges in England and Wales in an effort to stop asylum seekers using their rights to a family life to avoid deportation.
While Burnham has said the party needs to “do better” on the Israel-Palestine conflict, he is likely to come under pressure from the left to ban all arms shipments to Israel, which still include spare parts for F-۳۵ fighter jets, and take a different approach to the Palestine Action ban.
Similarly, the MP for Makerfield’s team has indicated he backs Mahmood’s changes on indefinite leave to remain and on refugee settlement, but dozens of MPs signed a private letter calling for a “pause and rethink” of the policy, and rebels will hope for concessions.
Some leftwingers will be hoping there is more space for them and their ideas in a broader Labour tent. Burnham’s support for greater public control of utilities has been welcomed, but many will also hope for a more leftwing choice for chancellor, such as Ed Miliband. Recent reports suggest that may be increasingly unlikely, with Mahmood touted as a likely successor to Rachel Reeves.
One of Burnham’s greatest strengths, according to those who know him well, is that he likes people, and often elicits a similar response from those he meets. But as he strives to win back disaffected voters, affiliates or colleagues, he is likely to find he cannot please all of the people, all of the time.
