From a ‘dangerous competitor’ to an unknown: Who could replace Zelenskyy?

Kyiv, Ukraine – The White House wants Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gone.

“I think it’s ⁠⁠time for Ukraine to get a new president,” United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Saturday, claiming that Zelenskyy’s months-long strikes on Russian refineries had hurt global diesel supplies.

But Trump’s wish is not Ukraine’s command.

Even though Zelenskyy’s five-year presidential term expired in ۲۰۲۴, Ukraine’s constitution and martial law grant him a wartime extension. Many Ukrainians want their political establishment to be renewed, but are reluctant to see a presidential vote before the four-and-a-half year war is over.

In response to Trump’s remarks, Zelenskyy proposed holding a vote if Russian President Vladimir Putin guaranteed a ۶۰-day ceasefire.

However, if the elections are held in the near future, who could compete with Zelenskyy?

“If the elections are held fast, one of the former military [commanders] is Zelenskyy’s most probable rival,” Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevych told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, old political heavyweights such as former President Viktor Poroshenko, who lost the ۲۰۱۹ presidential vote to Zelenskyy, and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who is being investigated for corruption, do not stand a chance, he said.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi: ‘Most probable alternative’

Ukraine’s former top general and current ambassador to the United Kingdom tops the lists of Zelenskyy’s rivals.

“At least since ۲۰۲۳, and especially since ۲۰۲۴, after his resignation, the most probable alternative to Zelenskyy, his most dangerous competitor who can defeat him in the election is Valerii Zaluzhnyi,” Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, told Al Jazeera.

Almost two-thirds of Ukrainians – ۶۴ percent – trust him, according to an October ۸ poll by the Rating Group, a Kyiv-based pollster, and only ۲۵ percent “distrust” him.

This trust is rooted in his ۲۰۲۲ military triumphs.

After defending Kyiv in the early weeks of Russia’s ۲۰۲۲ full-scale invasion, Zaluzhnyi led counteroffensives that returned ۴۰ percent of Russian-controlled territory to Ukraine.

He was fired in ۲۰۲۳ after a long-anticipated summer counteroffensive yielded no results.

Zaluzhnyi remains a man of mystery when it comes to the most pressing postwar matters.

Burly and imposing, the ۵۳-year-old is deliberately taciturn, leaving the public guessing about his views on Ukraine’s economic restoration, crippling demographic crisis or push to join the European Union.

He does not take part in talk shows, barely talks to journalists and occasionally publishes opinion pieces with detailed analyses of war-related problems and general statements about securing lasting peace and security guarantees from Ukraine’s Western partners.

Zelenskyy’s second chance?

The former comedian was elected in ۲۰۱۹ with ۷۳ percent of the vote, the highest result in Ukraine’s post-Soviet history.

Despite a string of corruption scandals in his inner circle, the ۴۸-year-old is popular enough to take another swing at a presidency.

More than half of Ukrainians – ۵۳ percent – trust him, although ۴۰ percent do not, according to the Rating Group’s poll.

However, Trump’s renewed animosity may benefit Zelenskyy again.

After his February ۲۰۲۵ row with Trump in the Oval Office, Zelenskyy’s approval ratings hit a wartime high of ۶۷ percent.

However, Zelenskyy may have ruined his own chances with his appointment policies.

“He came to power under the slogans of resetting the power, of picking the most competent, not the most trusted” ministers or advisers, analyst Tyshkevych said.

Kyrylo Budanov: Trusted by more than half of Ukrainians

Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov is the second most popular and charismatic military leader who has a shot at becoming Ukraine’s president.

The ۴۰-year-old former top military intelligence officer was appointed head of Zelenskyy’s administration in January.

Budanov led daring operations against Russia, including a raid on Russian-annexed Crimea in ۲۰۱۶ to plant explosives at a military airfield.

In ۲۰۲۰, Zelenskyy appointed him head of the defence ministry’s intelligence directorate (GUR), which became an aggressive, tech-driven special forces service.

The GUR’s sea drone attacks damaged Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, forcing it to retreat from annexed Crimea to the Russian port of Novorossiysk.

Budanov is trusted by ۵۳ percent of Ukrainians and mistrusted by ۳۱ percent, according to the Rating Group’s poll.

Mykhailo Fedorov: Young, popular, daring

At ۳۵, Fedorov is the youngest person on the list of potential presidents. He rose to fame after Zelenskyy appointed him minister of digital transformation in ۲۰۱۹, and managed to radically simplify bureaucratic procedures in the corruption-plagued nation. His ministry launched Diia, a smartphone app that lets users access more than ۱۰۰ government services online.

In January, Zelenskyy appointed Fedorov, who had zero military background, as defence minister in charge of logistics, budgets, reforms, anticorruption measures and deals to secure multibillion-dollar Western aid or loans.

Fedorov cracked down on corruption schemes by making procurement of new weaponry, food and medical supplies more transparent.

He radically boosted the number of drones that paralysed Russia’s supply routes, destroyed arms and fuel depots, oil refineries and air defence systems.

He also increased the number of ground robots to supply food and ammunition and rescue wounded soldiers.

But the reforms angered Oleksandr Syrsky, the actual commander-in-chief, who reportedly pushed for Fedorov’s dismissal in July.

Fedorov’s supporters rallied throughout Ukraine for weeks, while his approval ratings soared from ۳۵ percent in June to ۶۵ percent in July, according to the Rating Group’s polls.

However, in August he made an unpopular move saying Ukraine should hold a presidential vote, and his current approval stands at ۳۸ percent.

Yevhenii Khmara: Ukraine’s unknown defence minister

The top five list ends with Yevhenii Khmara, a general who replaced Fedorov as defence minister.

A relative unknown until his appointment in July, he is trusted by ۲۹ percent of Ukrainians and distrusted by ۱۶ percent.

He was a career intelligence official with a low public profile, but another ۴۳ percent of those polled did not know who he was, according to the survey.

Low hopes for a foreign minister and an ex-president

Numbers six and seven on the list are Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, a career diplomat who secured crucial support from Turkiye and Poland, and ex-president Poroshenko.

Both are trusted by ۲۴ percent of Ukrainians.

But Poroshenko, who came to power in ۲۰۱۴ on an anti-corruption ticket but got involved in a graft scandal with overpriced spare parts for military equipment, holds a low popularity rating – ۷۰ percent of those polled distrust him.