Fears grow in DRC as former President Joseph Kabila joins rebellion

Goma, DR Congo – Hopes for peace in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have suffered another setback after former President Joseph Kabila joined a new political-military coalition challenging President Felix Tshisekedi.

Announced in Goma on Monday evening, the Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN), or Front for the Refoundation of the Nation, is led by Kabila and replaces the existing alliance between the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) and the March ۲۳ Movement (M۲۳). The new coalition brings together figures and forces associated with the two movements, accuses Tshisekedi of tyranny and calls for resistance by all means, including force.

Goma, the main city in eastern Congo’s North Kivu province, has been under M۲۳-AFC control since January last year. Kabila’s move brings a former head of state directly into the leadership of the rebellion.

The conflict has displaced millions and drawn in neighbouring countries. Its roots stretch back decades, shaped by regional rivalries, unresolved security concerns and competition for territory and mineral resources. The aftermath of Rwanda’s ۱۹۹۴ genocide helped fuel wars across the region, while tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali continue to shape the fighting.

M۲۳ says it took up arms because the Congolese government failed to honour earlier commitments. The Congolese government and international actors have accused Rwanda of supporting the group, an allegation Kigali denies, citing security threats from armed groups operating in eastern Congo.

Whether Kabila’s leadership will reshape the rebellion or further complicate efforts to end the war remains unclear. In Goma, residents fear the latest realignment will push peace further out of reach.

Why do residents fear the war is far from over?

For Basa Juhudi, Kabila’s decision has revived fears that the conflict will drag on.

“As a resident of Goma, I believed the war might end in the very near future, hoping that the Congolese government would liberate us. And we are greatly surprised that even our former president has joined the fray,” he told Al Jazeera.

Juhudi said Kabila’s political experience makes his involvement particularly troubling.

“The fact that Joseph Kabila has joined the rebellion, bearing in mind that he is our former president and knows this country inside out, means the war is far from over. I am not happy about this frightening situation.”

He also fears for the country’s democratic future, recalling the peaceful transfer of power in ۲۰۱۹, when Tshisekedi succeeded Kabila.

“Today, I am very afraid. I don’t know if I will be lucky enough to experience a proper democracy in the DRC. I was delighted by the country’s very first peaceful transfer of power,” Juhudi said.

How does Kabila’s past shape his return to the conflict?

Kabila came to power in ۲۰۰۱ following the assassination of his father, Laurent-Desire Kabila. He was elected president in ۲۰۰۶ and re-elected in ۲۰۱۱.

His second constitutional term was due to end in ۲۰۱۶, but elections were delayed. Critics accused him of seeking to remain in power beyond the constitutionally permitted two terms. Protests against the delays were met with deadly violence before a political compromise paved the way for elections in December ۲۰۱۸.

Tshisekedi was declared the winner and took office in January ۲۰۱۹, marking the DRC’s first peaceful transfer of presidential power through elections. Kabila defended the election delays, arguing that the Congolese people had ultimately resolved their problems through dialogue.

His alignment with the FRN marks a new phase in his confrontation with Tshisekedi. The coalition presents itself as a political alternative to the government while maintaining an armed challenge to its authority. Whether Kabila can translate his political experience and networks into wider support remains uncertain.

Can dialogue still avert a wider confrontation?

Kabila’s move has drawn criticism from within the Congolese political establishment.

Vital Kamerhe, a former speaker of the National Assembly and leader of the Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC), urged the movement to abandon armed struggle.

“You cannot erase your own record by accusing your successor,” Kamerhe declared in a speech on Wednesday.

“I call on the leaders of this movement to abandon their plans and prioritise the path of dialogue. Whatever our frustrations, our differences or our ambitions, nothing, absolutely nothing, can justify us taking up weapons against our own country, at the risk of sacrificing our own Congolese lives,” he said.

His appeal highlights the central challenge facing peace efforts: political grievances remain unresolved, while renewed fighting threatens a population already battered by conflict.

What does Kabila’s move mean for peace initiatives?

The United States and Qatar have pursued separate diplomatic initiatives aimed at ending the conflict.

In Doha, representatives of the Congolese government and AFC-M۲۳ have discussed a ceasefire, the return of refugees, the release of detainees and measures to counter rhetoric that stigmatises ethnic minorities.

Washington has pursued an agreement between the DRC and Rwanda, including commitments relating to the neutralisation of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and the withdrawal of Rwandan troops from Congolese territory.

The initiatives address different but connected dimensions of the crisis. Kabila’s emergence as leader of the FRN raises questions about who will represent the armed opposition and whether existing commitments will be respected.

However, the new coalition has said it intends to honour commitments made during the Doha negotiations.

In a communique released on Wednesday, Freddy Kaniki, one of the FRN’s leaders, said the signing of the coalition’s memorandum of association and its official launch marked the dissolution of the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), which the FRN succeeds by right.

The communique said the FRN would assume the AFC’s “rights, obligations and commitments, in particular those entered into as part of the Doha negotiations”.

The statement suggests that the coalition intends to maintain the commitments made by its predecessor. It remains to be seen, however, how this pledge will translate into progress towards a ceasefire and a lasting settlement.

For Josue Akuzwe Walayi, a Congolese human rights activist, the development threatens to undermine hopes raised by the negotiations.

“My greatest fear is for the future of the Doha and Washington peace initiatives; it is not just that they will be a diplomatic failure, but that they will become yet more agreements without any real peace for the Congolese people,” he tells Al Jazeera.

Walayi argues that agreements without effective accountability mechanisms risk becoming empty promises. Lasting peace, he says, requires parties to honour their commitments and violations to be documented, investigated and punished in accordance with the law.

“What would the Doha and Washington agreements be worth if, despite the negotiations, Congolese people continue to die, families remain forced into exile and communities live in fear? The danger would be to normalise the war whilst the people pay the price,” he warns.

Could Kabila’s return pose a broader challenge to Kinshasa?

Kabila’s return to the centre of the conflict comes amid his legal confrontation with the Congolese state. Last year, a Congolese military court sentenced him to death in his absence on charges, including treason and war crimes, linking him to the M۲۳ rebellion. His relatives described the conviction as “unjust” and “politically motivated”.

Goma resident Willo Riziki says Kabila’s involvement should prompt the government to reassess the challenge it faces.

“The Congolese authorities must now take this war very seriously. If Kinshasa thought it was dealing with puppets, that is no longer the case. There are people all over the country who remain loyal to Kabila,” Riziki told Al Jazeera.

How far that loyalty extends, and whether it can translate into organised political or military support, remains uncertain.

There has been no official government reaction to the coalition’s announcement. Last week, after Kabila warned that the country was in peril and needed to be saved, government spokesman Patrick Muyaya said the former president had “nothing to offer but chaos”. In a post on X, Muyaya described Kabila as a “man of the past, nostalgic for anti-democratic methods”.

The confrontation between Kabila and Tshisekedi reflects a wider struggle over the country’s political future. But for civilians in the east, the immediate question is whether the latest realignment will bring more fighting and further delay a negotiated settlement.

“We don’t know if the war will end here,” said Juhudi.