Europeans overwhelmingly want a strong, united and independent Europe but question whether it can get there, according to a study that suggests a continent-wide crisis of confidence is creating fertile ground for far-right narratives of decline.
The report, based on ۵,۸۰۰ interviews in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and the UK and analysis of the way Europe is discussed in the politics and media of ۱۵ countries, paints a picture of an ambitious but disillusioned public.
It found that ۶۸% of respondents spoke about Europe in terms of a “general deterioration or loss of normality”, compared with just ۱۲% who said they viewed the present moment as a time of “European awakening and renewal”.
Many recognised the major challenges facing Europe, including war (۴۳%), economic pressures (۳۳%) and the need for greater international autonomy (۲۹%). But ۷۴% said Europe was not dealing well with them, and ۵۶% believed its future was “in danger”.
The problem is not lack of ambition: an overwhelming ۷۳% of respondents harbour a strong European vision of unity and political integration (۳۵%), peace and security (۲۸%) or prosperity (۱۹%), while only ۱۳% hope for “less Europe” or EU dissolution.
For many, said the study’s author, Pawel Zerka, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, the problem was “not that they’ve stopped wanting a stronger Europe, but that they no longer believe it’s achievable”.
The result, Zerka added, was an “imagination gap. People can picture the kind of Europe they want, but struggle to imagine a credible path from where it is today to where they want it to be. These are matters of policy, not just communication.”
A week before the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, is due to deliver her annual “state of the union” address in Brussels, Zerka said the evidence suggested the bloc needed “fewer grand promises” and more “proof of trajectory”.
The study cites dozens of conversations with Europeans. “I’m regularly relieved I live in Europe. It’s not perfect and some things are going in the wrong direction, but no region in the world is safer, freer and more democratic,” one German said.
However, while he identified the climate crisis and far-right parties as the continent’s greatest challenges, he said they were not being tackled effectively. “Elections focus too much on the here and now, and not enough on the future,” he said.
The respondent said he would like Europe in ۲۰ years’ time to be “free, democratic, sustainable, less indebted, politically further to the left [and] peaceful”. Asked whether he thought that was likely to happen, he said: “No.”
The study classed Europe’s voters in four categories. The Positives (۱۹%) are staunch pro-Europeans who view current crises as a catalyst for a stronger, more integrated union. The Negatives (۳۹%) believe Europe’s best days are behind it.
Almost half of people in France, Germany and Italy – and almost all who voted for radical-right parties such as Germany’s AfD, France’s RN, the Dutch PVV and Reform UK – were Negatives, with ۸۳% speaking of Europe in terms of loss and decline.
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The Disconnected (۱۲%) are generally apathetic voters for whom EU integration is distant background noise, and the Uncertain (۳۱%) share pro-European values but doubt the continent’s ability to act decisively, keep citizens safe or uphold its values.
Almost a third (۳۲%) of respondents across all countries surveyed mentioned “Europe’s slowness” in their responses. As one young Polish citizen, born in the ۲۰۰۰s, put it bluntly: “The EU fundamentally discusses a lot, but does nothing.”
The bloc’s failure to stand its ground when confronted by powerful actors was also a recurring theme, mentioned by almost a third (۳۰%) of all respondents, with the EU’s recent tariff concessions to Donald Trump a particularly humiliating symbol.
Zerka said the Uncertain group was key to the future trajectory of Europe. “Leaders tend to preach to the Positives or bow down to the Negatives,” he said, but it “is among the ‘uncertain’ where belief in Europe’s future remains up for grabs.”
Unlike hardened Eurosceptics, Uncertain voters retain a strong emotional attachment to the European project, the report argues, but are alienated by institutional inertia, bureaucratic slowness and perceived geopolitical weakness.
Winning back those doubters would require politicians to demonstrate that collective European action can solve tangible domestic crises, from energy security and defence to climate change and the cost of living crisis, Zerka said.
