Australia has entered a new phase in dealing with the incursion of deadly H۵N۱ bird flu, with authorities confirming on Wednesday that local transmission had taken place, and Victoria confirming first case of the highly virulent strain Thursday.
“We have had what is suggestive of local transmission for the first time,” Julie Collins, the federal minister for agriculture, fisheries and forestry, said on Wednesday afternoon, after ۱۱ suspected detections were reported in South Australian birds.
“We will expect to see increased evidence and deaths of wildlife … given there has been some local transmission,” she said. “This small shift in the situation will be very disappointing to many, but is certainly not an unexpected development as the last continent to detect H۵ bird flu.”
On Thursday morning, South Australia reported ۱۳ more cases in greater crested terns.
Now that authorities believe transmission of H۵ strain is occurring locally, what does this mean for Australia’s wildlife, and how bad could things get?
What’s the current status of H۵N۱ bird flu in Australia?
On Thursday, South Australian authorities announced ۱۳ new suspected bird flu detections in greater crested terns, including five cases at Seal Bay on Kangaroo Island, home to a population of endangered Australian sea lions.
Victoria also detected its first case of the virus, in a greater crested tern in Portland. Once the new cases are confirmed, that would bring Australia to a total of ۴۱ cases.
Julie Collins, the agriculture minister, said the Consultative Committee on Emergency Animal Diseases – comprising federal and state and territory authorities – had met on Wednesday and agreed that “some local transmission has occurred between a number of greater crested terns that are resident in South Australia”.
Dr Beth Cookson, Australia’s chief veterinary officer, said genetic sequencing showed all confirmed cases detected to date were related to subantarctic strains of the virus.
Clare Scriven, the SA minister for primary industries, said earlier on Wednesday: “This is concerning but not unexpected. We knew that eventually when bird flu arrived in Australia it would spread. It has spread on every other continent around the globe.”
To date, there have been no H۵ detections in poultry or agricultural industries in Australia. “The risk to human health remains low,” Collins said.
How could bird flu affect wildlife on Kangaroo Island?
Six of the Kangaroo Island bird flu detections have been at Seal Bay, home to the country’s third-largest Australian sea lion population. Conservationists have expressed fears for the sea lion population there.
Alexia Wellbelove, campaigns director at the Australian Marine Conservation Society (AMCS), said Australian sea lions were “now on the frontline of the potential wildlife crisis”.
About ۸۰% of the Australian sea lion population is found in South Australia; the endangered mammal has seen populations decline by ۶۰% in four decades, with remaining numbers about ۱۲,۰۰۰.
“In South America, this virus killed ۳۰,۰۰۰ sea lion pups in just six months following transmission from birds to marine mammals,” Wellbelove said. “On our own Heard Island, it killed more than ۱۳,۰۰۰ elephant seal pups in a single season … we now have to face the very real possibility of similar devastation here at home, in a species already teetering on the edge.”
Scriven said on-beach tours at Seal Bay were temporarily paused to keep people separate from the “very vulnerable” animal population and to reduce the risk of spreading infection.
What can be done to stop the spread of bird flu?
Not much, unfortunately. Cookson said on Wednesday: “We do know from the overseas experience that once the virus becomes more widespread in wild bird populations it will not be possible to avoid losses in susceptible wildlife in the natural environment.”
Authorities had anticipated the arrival of H۵N۱ in Australia through migratory birds “for a number of years”, she said. They will continue to focus on surveillance, to confirm where the virus is circulating and to “reduce the impacts where possible”.
Collins said the federal government had invested more than $۱۱۳m preparing for the virus’s arrival. “We have also, working with states and territories, now released a further $۲۴m.”
Without listing specific animals, Cookson said the government was taking “a number of actions in high-priority conservation species, including site- and species-specific planning”. There would also be a focus on protecting captive breeding populations, and implementing farm biosecurity measures to “limit contact between wild birds and poultry”.
Groups including the AMCS and the Invasive Species Council have called on the federal government to establish a $۲۰۰m national wildlife resilience fund, “focused on emergency protection and recovery for our most at-risk species”.
How bad could bird flu get in Australia?
Worldwide, the H۵N۱ variant has caused “unprecedented levels of ongoing outbreaks”, killing millions of wild birds and tens of thousands of mammals.
Large-scale deaths have not yet occurred in Australia, but the major concerns relate to potential wildlife impacts: more than ۱۵۰ native bird species have been assessed as being at “very high risk” of extinction or major decline if they are infected – including the red goshawk, fairy tern, plains-wanderer, shy albatross, black swan and western hooded plover.
More than ۱۰ mammal species are at very high risk, including the Australian sea lion, the subantarctic fur seal and the Australian fur seal.
There could also be significant impacts on the poultry industry. Globally, an estimated ۱۴۰m farmed birds have died or been culled since January last year. In the United States, the virus was linked to a ۲۲۰% spike in egg prices in the first quarter of ۲۰۲۵. Western Australia’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry has warned that if the virus were to reach commercial flocks, it could push egg prices above $۱۰ a carton. Mass culls could be necessary, and the RSPCA has called for fast-tracked research into more humane killing methods, such as the use of nitrogen in gas or foam.
Human-to-human transmission of the virus is not common, but since ۲۰۰۳, there have been ۱,۰۰۰ reported cases of H۵N۱ in humans globally, with a ۴۸% fatality rate.
