A year ago, Tory MPs were braced for the prospect of yet another leadership battle to topple Kemi Badenoch as the party sunk to historic lows of ۱۴-۱۶% in the polls.
At the time, the word “November” was uttered in hushed tones – this being the decisive month when rebels would be able to mount a challenge, Badenoch having served ۱۲ months in office.
But times appear to have changed and – against the odds – the Tories have undergone what has been termed a “Keminisation”, with the leader asserting her style and authority on the party, despite its wider poor performance in the polls.
“Right now, Kemi is the only thing that’s holding them up,” says Luke Tryl, the director of the More in Common thinktank, which conducts focus groups and polling. “If they ditched her, I think they’d be certain for electoral oblivion.”
Badenoch is running a party still discounted as toxic and incompetent by much of the electorate, but polling numbers and focus groups suggest some of them have recently begun to give her more of a hearing.
The party has crept up from the teens to the low ۲۰s – occasionally edging ahead of Reform UK for the first time in almost two years.
“It’s not great for them, but it’s a lot better,” says Tryl. “The problem is the party brand. She is now in our approval ratings net neutral and has been net ۱ or net ۲. She was in the minus ۳۰s and now only her and Burnham have positive approval.
“Progressives don’t like her, but when you come to those who might conceivably be Tory voters there’s a lot of ‘like her, don’t like the party, she tells it like it is, wish she was in another party’. I do think the Kemi bounce is real. People talk about her having improved and they have seen her PMQs clips.”
Data from the other pollsters backs up the idea that the public is more open to Badenoch than before. James Crouch, the head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said Badenoch’s approval rating had been rising since May ۲۰۲۵, when she was at -۲۷, to -۳ in its latest poll. He said that among ۲۰۲۴ Conservative voters she had the approval of ۶۴%, compared with just ۸% who did not approve, while of those who voted Conservative in ۲۰۱۹, ۵۶% approved of her, while ۱۶% did not.
Further research from YouGov this week found four in ۱۰ people used at least one negative term to describe the Tory leader, one of the most common themes being a perceived unpleasantness. But three in ۱۰ included one or more positive terms in their description, strong and intelligent being the main compliments.
Some Tory MPs attribute Badenoch’s improvement over the last year to a willingness to learn and take advice on her performance. This is in spite of her having the preternatural public self-confidence to claim to the FT this weekend that she couldn’t think of any mistakes she had made, saying everyone makes them but “nothing comes to mind”.
But insiders say she has listened to people warning she needs to focus more on the economy and less on culture war talking points, with the party’s conference slogan set as “Stronger economy, stronger country”.
She has also improved her prime minister’s questions appearances, partly with help on preparation from Conservative grandees such as David Cameron.
Tory MPs believe a turning point for Badenoch was the defection of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman to Reform – because their departure removed a source of destabilisation on the right, and it gave her an opportunity to show decisiveness in pushing Jenrick before he jumped. She has also been aided by the increasing questions over Nigel Farage and Reform UK’s finances, with the party’s dominance in the polls slipping.
However, the arrival of Andy Burnham on the scene for Labour has changed things.
Giles Kenningham, the former Conservative director of communications who now leads the Trafalgar Strategy advisory firm, says Burnham “raises the bar … he’s a great communicator and comfortable in his own skin”.
“It’s a harder ask now. Starmer was not a great orator or someone who electrified voters … Burnham has had a great conference but all eyes are now on the budget, so her conference needs to be on the economy and welfare. John Healey’s speech didn’t say anything, and there is an opportunity for Badenoch to put pressure on them and drive the agenda.”
Badenoch’s star has also risen further with the membership of the party, the most recent ConservativeHome poll showing she has a ۸۷% net satisfaction rating with the party faithful.
Despite this, a number of Conservative aides and insiders believe that Badenoch’s future is still not totally secure if the party does not start to creep above Reform UK on a sustained basis. One pointed to the Tory selection races – excluding some high-profile former MPs from standing – as a sign of perceived weakness that those around Badenoch are worried about her being challenged. “She is not alone among politicians in not liking tall poppies,” said one Conservative strategist.
“Ultimately, she is not immune from a challenge,” said another. “The shelf life of politicians is getting shorter and shorter. Leaders are much more exposed and the job is precarious. The thing most in her favour is that there are currently no other obvious contenders.”
