The commitment that made Ben Carroll premier may ultimately cost him the election.
On Monday morning, right in the middle of a state election campaign, the royal commission into Victoria’s Big Build will begin two weeks of public hearings.
For Labor, this is the worst possible timing. It wants to be talking about anything other than allegations of corruption and criminal infiltration of government projects. For the Coalition, it is a gift they will exploit.
Carroll – whose campaign bus is splashed with the words “new premier, new direction” – will face sustained questions about the actions of his predecessors and a past he wants to move away from.
Labor insiders fear the next two weeks could be damaging.
“If there are bad news stories, Ben will be up in the media and we will not change our plan,” says a senior Labor source.
“He’ll say ‘I set this up, I want answers’. Ben is owning it. The campaign will own it.”
In reality, they have little choice.
Calling this inquiry – formally known as the Royal Commission into the Integrity of Major Public and Civil Infrastructure Construction Projects – may have been Carroll’s first decision as premier. But he has no control over when hearings are held and who is called.
His premiership is also intrinsically tied to this royal commission.
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When his predecessor, Jacinta Allan, refused to call it, despite admitting criminals had infiltrated construction projects, her party room turned to someone who would.
When Carroll walked into Government House as writs for the election were issued, he said: “I want to be a premier that did what he said he would do on integrity.”
So far, this has earned him respect from one of Victorian Labor’s most persistent critics. Deborah Glass served as the state’s ombudsman from ۲۰۱۴ to ۲۰۲۴, and publicly called for a royal commission in June, weeks before Allan resigned.
“This is a necessary examination of a shameful chapter in Victoria’s history,” Glass tells Guardian Australia.
“Ben Carroll has shown political courage setting up a royal commission whose proceedings will no doubt be painful not only for his predecessors but his party.”
That pain was made clear earlier this week, when some of the early submissions to the royal commission were aired in the media.
William McDougall, a planning expert with five decades of experience on Victorian government projects, said in his submission that Labor advisers may have influenced major projects without transparency or accountability.
McDougall’s submission delivered a scathing assessment of how Labor has managed the Big Build. He argues “announcement precedes analysis, dissent is discouraged, and accountability is weakened”.
“Such a system increases the risk of selecting inferior projects, misallocating public funds, suppressing professional advice and creating conditions in which misconduct can flourish,” McDougall’s submission says.
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These claims are denied by the government, and will ultimately be tested by the royal commission. But they are politically damaging. So too are headlines linking Labor to a key player in the Big Build scandal: the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU).
On Friday, the commission revealed its initial focus would include the CFMEU’s conduct on rail projects in Sunbury.
In ۲۰۲۴ the then Victorian CFMEU boss, John Setka, quit after ۱۲ years at the helm after a Nine investigation unearthed a raft of misconduct allegations that detailed how some of the highest-ranking bikie bosses had been parachuted into union delegate positions on the Big Build.
In August, Roy Morgan polling of ۲,۰۸۴ Victorians found “corruption and integrity failures” were the top issues that would stop people voting for Labor.
This may be one reason why there are still some Labor MPs who would prefer this was not happening. They argue Allan failed to appropriately respond to the allegations when they were first aired by the Nine newspapers in ۲۰۲۴. If she had, political damage could have been limited.
Carroll knew these MPs and sections of the union movement would not be happy. While the MPs have toed the line, some unions have broken away. Labor concedes the Electrical Trades Union’s decision not to fund Labor’s campaign could be costly.
If Labor loses this election, as polls predict, the royal commission will be Carroll’s lasting legacy.
But the Liberals could use the commission to inflict more pain on Labor and the broader union movement.
The party has plans to expand its remit to explicitly investigate all trade unions, as well as political and financial incentives behind the Big Build.
Whatever chaos unfolds in coming weeks, and whoever wins on ۲۸ November, Glass remains hopeful the commission will deliver a forensic analysis of what went wrong and why.
“While a proper examination will inevitably take time, Victorians need answers to those questions as soon as possible.”
