US midterms: ۳ days to go – What latest polls say as early voting surges

With three days to go before the US midterm elections, Democrats are leading national polls as millions of Americans cast their ballots early.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has announced he will carry on with his campaigns in Kansas and Iowa as both parties make their final push ahead of Election Day on Tuesday.

Here is what you need to know:

What do the US midterm polls say?

According to RealClearPolling’s latest national congressional ballot average, Democrats still lead Republicans by ۸.۲ percentage points. Democrats lead by ۵۱.۴ percent to ۴۳.۲ percent.

A separate Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday found that ۴۴ percent of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House of Representatives after the election, compared with ۳۱ percent who expect Republicans to retain control.

Expectations were much closer for the Senate, with ۳۹ percent expecting a Democratic majority and ۳۶ percent a Republican one.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Al Jazeera that the Democratic lead in national polling suggests a different picture for the two chambers.

“A big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats,” Kondik said.

“However, that does not mean the Senate is going to flip – it certainly could, but it is much more up in the air.”

How many Americans have already voted?

According to an Associated Press analysis released on Friday, more than ۴۳ million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots five days before Election Day.

That’s nearly ۱۰ million more than at the same point before the ۲۰۲۲ midterms, with some of the biggest increases recorded in states having competitive Senate races.

In Texas, more than ۶.۳ million people had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with ۴.۲ million at the same point in ۲۰۲۲, an increase of ۵۰ percent.

Al Jazeera’s Phil Lavelle reported from Houston on Friday that voters were continuing to arrive at polling stations as the state’s early voting period was drawing to a close.

In Georgia, more than ۲.۵ million ballots had been cast by Friday morning, surpassing the ۲.۳ million recorded during the early voting period in ۲۰۲۲, according to Al Jazeera’s Matthew Torres.

Torres reported long queues at an Atlanta polling station and more participation among young voters.

“We all just really want a better future for everyone, especially like the next generation,” one young voter told Al Jazeera.

Another young voter pointed to social media as a reason for the increased interest in the election. “Definitely social media. Social media and the media has put voting in the limelight,” the voter said.

Democratic political strategist Celinda Lake said many voters were looking for change.

“You got a lot of voters who say, ‘I’m going to do a Hail Mary for change, but I hope you do something,’” she said.

Early voting also increased by more than ۳۰ percent compared with the same period in ۲۰۲۲ in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, according to the AP analysis.

However, early turnout figures don’t show which candidates voters have chosen or what the final results will be.

What’s happened on the campaign trail in the past ۲۴ hours?

Trump reversed his decision to cancel two weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa, with the White House confirming that both events would go ahead on Sunday.

The rallies had been cancelled on Thursday, with the White House saying Trump would instead take part in nearly ۲۰ telephone campaign events.

But less than a day later, the president put the rallies back in his schedule.

Al Jazeera’s Tanya Nouri reported that Trump’s campaign team sees his personal appearances as a way to mobilise Republican voters.

“He is energised to go back and rally in person on Sunday,” Nouri said, quoting her campaign sources.

She also said that Trump’s team believes his appearances have a stimulating effect on Republican supporters, especially in states where the Republicans are running for Senate seats against strong opposition.

Trump also campaigned in Florida on Friday, where Republicans are defending Senate and gubernatorial seats.

“You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? So let’s pretend they’re one point down,” Trump told the rally crowd.

Meanwhile, in Texas, Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico were focusing their final campaign efforts on Houston, according to Al Jazeera’s Lavelle.

Paxton cancelled an event in El Paso to concentrate on Harris County, Texas’s most populous county, as early voting drew to a close.

On Friday, former President Bill Clinton campaigned for the Democratic Party in Mississippi.

He also urged people to vote.

“I can’t tell you how many people I care for that have lost in Mississippi because of those who did not vote at all,” Clinton said.

Where will Trump and the Democrats campaign this weekend?

Trump is scheduled to hold back-to-back rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. In Iowa, he is expected to support Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, and later travel to Kansas, where he will campaign with Senator Roger Marshall.

Recent polls have shown competitive Senate races in traditionally Republican states. In Kansas, Marshall faces a tough race against his Democratic challenger, megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton.

An Emerson College poll suggests that Hamilton is leading with ۴۹ percent support, while Marshall has ۴۵ percent. Democrats are also making their final appeals to voters. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear will join Ohio governor candidate Amy Acton at a campaign event.

Democrat Senate nominee for Alaska Mary Peltola is also expected to attend a rally in Bethel, Alaska.

Alaska’s Senate race is one of seven key toss-ups that will likely decide whether Republicans keep their majority in Congress’s upper chamber.

The race has been complicated by a dispute involving two candidates named Dan Sullivan. Trump has accused Democrats of recruiting an independent candidate with the same name as the Republican senator to confuse voters and draw support away from him.

The Department of Justice has taken legal action over the dispute, while Peltola has denied involvement in the alleged recruitment effort.

Separately, Republican candidate Mike Rogers is also expected to campaign with House Speaker Mike Johnson over the weekend.