Serbia wakes up to new reality after student-led movement ousts Vučić – Europe live

More European leaders have now logged in after the weekend and are sending their congratulations to Serbia’s Student List after their win over Vučić last night.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said:

“There have been changes in Serbia – a victory of the Student List @studentblokade. And this is clearly a new chapter in the history of the country and its people. We wish Serbia success, real development, and warm relations with the European community.

We in Ukraine thank Serbia for respecting our people, our state, and our independence. And we always celebrate our shared achievements – everything that strengthens our societies and gives people more opportunities. We are ready to continue expanding our cooperation, and may all the good hopes of the people of Serbia come true!”

Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz said:

“The parliamentary elections in Serbia are clearly decided. We congratulate the Student List! With its demands for the rule of law, the fight against corruption, and fundamental freedoms, it has reached the people. We will actively support Serbia’s European path.”

Sweden’s caretaker prime minister Ulf Kristersson said:

“Congratulations to the Student List on its decisive victory and to the people of Serbia that turned out in record numbers to choose their future. This is an opportunity to strengthen democracy, the rule of law, and the fight against corruption. Sweden continues to support reforms that underpin Serbia’s EU accession.”

Estonia’s foreign minister Margus Tsakhna said:

“The people of Serbia have made their voices heard. Congratulations to the Student List @studentblokade on its electoral victory.

Their calls for democracy, the rule of law and the fight against corruption reflect the importance of building trust in democratic institutions.

Estonia stands ready to share its experience in strengthening democratic institutions, ensuring media freedom and advancing e-governance. We are ready to work with Serbia towards a democratic, prosperous future in Europe.”

Press freedom organisation Reporters without Borders welcomed the defeat of “press freedom predator” Aleksandar Vučić and said it offered “a historic opportunity to restore media freedom.”

Here is their first take on last night’s results:

“The defeat of press freedom predator Aleksandar Vucic by the opposition movement Student List in the Sunday parliamentary election offers a historic opportunity to restore media freedom. RSF hails the courageous work of all journalists who resisted Vucic’s oppression for more than a decade.”

Kremlin hopes new Serbian government understands value of cooperation with Moscow

Jakub Krupa

We are also getting the first reaction to last night’s vote from Moscow.

The Kremlin said “it hopes Serbia’s new rulers understand that cooperation with Moscow is in their own country’s interests,” and that it would want to “continue to develop ties with Serbia, but it takes two to tango,” Reuters reported.

In recent years, Aleksandar Vučić was a rare European voice calling for “dialogue” with Russia and not shying away from visiting Moscow, even during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

This put him close to the EU’s awkward squad with Hungary’s now-ousted Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico (up for re-election next year, where he is likely to struggle.)

The Student List’s policy on Russia is likely to look quite different in style – don’t expect their leader, whoever it may be, to attend Moscow’s Victory Parade, for instance – but will not necessarily see a major shift in substance, given Serbia’s close economic and energy ties with Moscow (including so many Russian émigrées finding their new home in Belgrade to escape sanctions).

Vučić used his concession speech last night to claim the incoming government would adopt sanctions against Moscow by spring, despite polling showing that a clear majority of over ۶۰% of the public opposes such a move.

But putting his sour grapes rhetoric aside, that looks improbable. In fact, the Student List explicitly stated in its manifesto that it wants to retain “the traditional partnership” with Russia and will oppose any punitive measures against Moscow.

I explained a bit more on that on our election night blog last night.

Hungary’s prime minister Péter Magyar – who came into power after ousting Viktor Orbán earlier this year – is clearly emotionally invested in the events in Serbia.

After posting several times last night and drawing (somewhat imperfect, but understandable) parallels between the two victories, he is back at it this morning:

“Surely I wasn’t the only one feeling nostalgic when I saw those pictures coming out of Serbia last night? It’s symbolic that the “Budapest Express” reached Belgrade in politics before it did on the tracks.”

Morning opening: Serbia wakes up to new reality after Vučić

Jakub Krupa

Serbia wakes up to a new reality this morning after a grassroots opposition movement led by students ousted the country’s former authoritarian president Aleksandar Vučić, raising hopes for a new opening in relations with the EU and other partners.

With ۹۶.۹% polling stations processed, the Student List has ۵۲.۶% of votes, well ahead of Vučić’s bloc at ۳۹.۲۲%.

The latest CeSID projection suggested the students will have ۱۴۰ seats in the new parliament, well clear of the ۱۲۶ required for majority, with ۱۰۳ for Vucic’s bloc. No other party crossed the ۳% threshold, with national minority parties taking the remaining seven seats.

We are likely to get more reactions to the vote today, with international observers set to present their preliminary report on the vote in the early afternoon.

I will also pick up the latest on the first round of the presidential vote in Bulgaria, which saw a record-low turnout of just ۲۲%. The second round will be held this Sunday.

Elsewhere, I will be looking for updates from France and Italy after another rocky weekend of protests. French PM Sébastien Lecornu is going to meet with the student unions in the afternoon for what could be pivotal talks on the future of the demonstrations.

And E۵ defence ministers – that’s France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK – are meeting in Paris for discussions on Ukraine. Oh, and Slovakia’s foreign minister Juraj Blanár is in Moscow for energy talks with Russia.

It’s Monday, ۲۶ October ۲۰۲۶, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.

Good morning.