Foreign students will face tough restrictions on the ability to bring family members into Australia, as the federal government shifts sections of the country’s immigration system away from demand-driven settings.
Long-awaited changes will be revealed by the home affairs minister, Tony Burke, on Thursday, and are expected to include efforts to stop visa overstays and limit lengthy appeals processes for applicants.
The changes are designed to bring down net overseas migration (Nom) while doing the least damage to the economy.
Burke will address the National Press Club in Canberra, with a speech titled “The work of managing the migration program: Who arrives, who stays, who leaves”.
He had been due to announce the plans more than a month ago, but the speech was cancelled at the ۱۱th hour amid debate inside cabinet about the direction and scale of the changes.
The plan will shift some rules for visa categories away from demand-driven settings, allowing the government more control on the numbers of people coming into, and departing, the country.
Labor plans to use legislation to gain more control over arrival numbers, but could rely on regulation and directives to departmental officials if it cannot find agreement in parliament.
“We do need to get net overseas migration down,” Burke said.
“We need to make sure that we deal with the numbers overall, and do so in a sensible, a targeted way that provides the easiest pathway through the Australian economy.”
Labor wants policy settings tweaked to ensure it can meet forecasts for Nom, as support for One Nation surges over concerns about rates of immigration.
Last year Australia issued more than ۳۳۷,۰۰۰ international student visas, of which about ۴۵,۰۰۰ went to dependents or family members of the primary applicant. Under the mooted changes, the vast majority of students would be required to come alone.
As well as ۱۸۵,۰۰۰ permanent arrivals annually, the government wants Nom to fall from about ۳۰۵,۰۰۰ to about ۲۲۵,۰۰۰ over two years, ending years of higher than expected arrivals, including from international students and working holidaymakers.
Nom measures people coming into or leaving the country for a period of at least ۱۲ months over ۱۶ months, including leaving and returning Australian citizens. Nom has fallen in seven consecutive quarters since September ۲۰۲۳. It is forecast to fall lower than pre-Covid levels by ۲۰۲۷-۲۸.
But temporary visa holder rates remain high. For the ۲۰۲۴-۲۵ financial year, there were ۵۶۸,۳۷۰ overseas arrivals, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data.
Changes including efforts to stop people whose visas have expired from transferring to different categories are likely, essentially forcing some overseas citizens to leave the country more quickly.
The government is also expected to seek to drive down the number of unlawful non-citizens currently in Australia.
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Department of Home Affairs data shows that, as of July, there were ۱۱۰,۸۹۸ individuals not granted a protection visa who were yet to be deported. The total includes people on bridging visas and others seeking a judicial or administration review.
Labor’s efforts to regain the initiative on immigration comes as One Nation surges in the polls and as community sentiment on the number of overseas arrivals remains a key issue motivating voters.
One Nation said on Monday it would cut the number of temporary migrants in Australia by more than ۷۵۰,۰۰۰ over three years, targeting international students and family members of skilled migrants.
Business groups, universities, the aged care sector and both Labor and the Coalition all savaged the plan, warning Hanson’s proposals would hurt essential services and the economy.
Anthony Albanese tried to secure Coalition support for legislative changes in talks with the opposition leader, Angus Taylor, last week, but no agreement was reached. The prime minister leaves Australia to attend the United Nations general assembly in New York on Friday.
The independent senator David Pocock said on Wednesday the country deserved a mature conversation about immigration, not one starting with numbers.
“The big thing I would love to see is a plan. There’s this constant talk about numbers, about classes of visas. Rather than actually having the conversation as a country, what is our ۱۰-year plan for migration,” he told ABC radio.
“What are the skills that we need? What are the trade-offs when it comes to housing, impact on the environment?”
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry boss, Andrew McKellar, called for an end to “the race for the lowest Nom”, warning business needed skilled workers from overseas.
“We do not have a migration problem in Australia; we have a housing crisis and skill shortages. Those are the problems we need to fix. Shortsighted approaches that damage the economy won’t solve them. Those are red lines for business,” he said.
