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Half a million people are trapped in the Sudanese city of el-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan state, as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group tries to enforce its dominance over the Kordofan and Darfur regions during a civil war that has wrought devastation on the country for three years.
The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has warned of an impending humanitarian “catastrophe” as el-Obeid is expected to be the next site for major ground clashes between the RSF and Sudanese military. Many countries have also raised the alarm about atrocities being carried out in the city.
El-Obeid, which has been cut off by continuous drone attacks for months, is under threat after the mass atrocities carried out by the RSF in el-Fasher, capital of North Darfur state.
In October, the RSF took over el-Fasher, which it had besieged for ۱۸ months. Last week, Amnesty International said the massacres in the western city amounted to ethnic cleansing while an independent UN mission stated in February that the assault bore the “hallmarks of genocide”.
The RSF has been gathering force around the strategically important south-central city of el-Obeid for months, placing about ۵۰۰,۰۰۰ people, including ۱۰۵,۰۰۰ displaced people, in the middle with nowhere to flee.
The war in Sudan began in April ۲۰۲۳ when the RSF attacked the capital, Khartoum. It quickly spread across the country.
The war is considered to be one of the worst humanitarian conflicts in the world with tens of thousands killed. It’s also the world’s largest displacement crisis with more than ۱۴ million refugees or internally displaced people.
Here’s what we know:
What is happening in el-Obeid?
El-Obeid has been subject to “relentless” drone attacks by “advancing paramilitaries”, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said on Friday.
A large amount of the city’s infrastructure has been damaged. Attacks on its power station have caused blackouts, disrupted water supplies and hampered the ability of hospitals to operate. The Yale Humanitarian Research Lab reported the city is experiencing an electricity and fuel crisis.
Last week, an international coalition of countries warned of impending atrocities in the city. A statement delivered by Norway was presented on behalf of the Coalition for Atrocity Prevention and Justice for Sudan. The group consists of the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Sierra Leone, and they said they were joined by ۲۱ other countries.
“We are gravely alarmed by the urgent risks of atrocities and deliberate killings in Sudan,” the statement warned.
“Ten consecutive days of drone strikes have killed at least ۵۰ civilians across El Obeid and North Kordofan, and have caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure,” the statement continued.
“Widespread credible reports of ethnically targeted violence, including sexual and gender-based violence, are deplorable.”
The UN has called on the international community to prevent another catastrophe in Sudan.
Why is el-Obeid strategically important?
El-Obeid sits on a key route between the RSF-controlled Darfur region and some of the army-controlled eastern regions.
Whoever holds el-Obeid controls a key gateway through which goods, people and supplies flow into central Sudan. Government forces have their ۵th Infantry Division and airbase there. The city is also home to an oil pipeline and a large Arabic gum market.
If the city falls into the hands of the RSF, it would severely limit the army’s ability to control the Kordofan region. The RSF would also be in control of a supply route connecting its western strongholds to the rest of the country.
Ahmed Ben Omer, an independent Sudan analyst, told Al Jazeera that the potential fall of el-Obeid would trigger a strategic shift in the war: “The city sits at the heart of a network linking Darfur, Kordofan and central Sudan. Control of it would give the RSF an opportunity to connect vast geographical areas and rebuild its political project after losing Khartoum.”
The RSF was expelled from the national capital in March ۲۰۲۵.
What happened in el-Fasher?
El-Fasher was subjected to a brutal massacre by invading RSF forces last year. Thousands of civilians were killed after the Sudanese army retreated.
Like el-Obeid now, the city had been under RSF siege for ۱۸ months – from May ۲۰۲۴ until October ۲۰۲۵ – when its forces stormed it. During that time, Amnesty International accused the RSF of crimes against humanity after survivors said civilians were subjected to sexual violence, targeted killings, torture and detentions. They were also cut off from food, water and humanitarian assistance.
The UN had warned about the impending humanitarian crisis in el-Fasher as well, but the international community did not act.
Leena Badri, a nonresident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, said there are some major differences between el-Obeid and el-Fasher that indicate how the war is evolving on a military basis.
“El-Fasher underwent a full, prolonged siege,” she said. “El-Obeid is really an example of the pervasive use of drones, and how the use of drones then essentially creates the conditions of a siege without having them to do an actual full encirclement of the city.”
The end result – starvation – is likely to be the same for the people trapped in el-Obeid, however, Omer said. “A siege serves a clear purpose: exhausting the population, driving up the cost of living, disrupting markets, restricting the movement of goods and gradually draining the city from within.”
He noted that in el-Fasher, the city fought a military battle “while its residents fight a daily battle for food, water and medicine” and warned that prolonged pressure on el-Obeid could lead to famine, which was confirmed in el-Fasher in September.
What are conditions like in el-Obeid now?
Badri said residents in el-Obeid are in extremely dire circumstances as the drone strikes on infrastructure and water supplies have forced residents to turn to wells and water tanks outside the city.
“Food prices have surged up to ۳۰۰ percent, and water prices have doubled. Aid access has also shrunk because of the security situation,” she said.
Turk, the UN rights chief, told the UN Human Rights Council last week: “Civilians have been subjected to siege-like conditions for ۱۸ months, battered by relentless drone attacks, as the Sudanese armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces battle for control over areas surrounding the city.”
Omer told Al Jazeera that stopping a potential catastrophe is a matter of political will and influence from international actors.
“The United States has sanctions and financial-pressure tools. Egypt carries direct security and political weight in the Sudan file,” he said. “Saudi Arabia has significant diplomatic and regional influence and hosted the Jeddah process. The UN Security Council possesses legal and political tools.”
The Jeddah process refers to talks held shortly after the war began. They resulted in an agreement aimed at ending the war in May ۲۰۲۳, but fighting resumed a day after it took effect.
