Fifteen years since the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi in Libya began, and with civil strife leading to the downfall of what was once one of Africa’s wealthiest countries, several actors are seeking to end the civil war and reunite the country.
Among them are the US, which has commercial interests in Libya’s oil fields. Qatar, Egypt and Turkiye are also pushing for a return to “One Libya”, after more than a decade of fighting between two rival authorities for control of the country.
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Here’s what we know:
What happened ۱۵ years ago?
The Libyan uprising erupted during the Arab Spring, when thousands of people in the port city of Benghazi took to the streets to protest against Gaddafi’s more than four decades of absolute power.
Violence against the demonstrations pushed the protesters into an armed rebellion against Gaddafi’s rule, with a civil war starting between the two sides.
A United Nations Security Council resolution authorised an international military intervention force – led by NATO members, the United States, United Kingdom and France – to enforce a no-fly zone and ensure the protection of civilians in Libya. This bombing campaign pushed back Gaddafi’s forces from Benghazi and aided the rebels in seizing territory.
Gaddafi was eventually captured and killed in October ۲۰۱۱, ۴۲ years after he first seized power in a military coup that overthrew King Idris.
How is Libya divided?
Following Gaddafi’s death, a power vacuum emerged, with multiple groups – and their allied militias – competing for power.
Control of the country is now split between two rival administrations: the UN-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dheibah, and the eastern, Tobruk-based administration backed by Khalifa Haftar and his self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA).
The GNU is recognised by the UN and other countries, and officially has authority in the capital and western Libya.
Under Gaddafi, Haftar was exiled in the US for two decades where he holds citizenship.
His forces control vast resource-rich lands in the east, including the strategic port city of Benghazi, reportedly with the backing of Russia.
The UN began formal mediation efforts in ۲۰۲۰ under the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). This roadmap advocates for a three-track strategy that includes unifying the two rival administrations, presidential and parliamentary elections, and hosting national dialogue meetings.
The US was a key mediator behind the scenes, and in May ۲۰۲۱, appointed Ambassador Richard Norlan as Special Envoy to Libya, to lead high-level talks between the two sides.
What is the US’s new plan?
Under Massad Boulous, US President Donald Trump’s African and Middle Eastern affairs adviser, and father-in-law to Tiffany Trump, Washington is intensifying efforts to reunite the country. But this can only be achieved if both sides agree to form a single government.
According to leaked details, Trump’s initiative centres on the promise that if the rival governments cooperate, the US would encourage American investment in Libya’s sizable oil fields. This comes as the Libyan Central Bank, which is attempting to finance both authorities, sounds the alarm over the dire economic situation.
While Tripoli has international legitimacy, Haftar’s forces control the oilfields and terminals.
The US is also proposing a power-sharing deal that would see Dheibah continue to lead the government while Haftar’s son and LNA army chief, ۳۵-year-old Saddam Haftar, serves as president.
There are obvious opportunities for US energy companies and economic and political incentives for European countries in a unified and stable Libya.
They include stopping irregular migration from Libya and other North African countries to the EU.
Some criticise the US-led plan as lacking input from the Libyan people. The deal, some say, could entrench the power of political dynasties, which might be best for long-term stability in Libya.
What have the results been?
There are signs that Haftar’s camp, at least, is on board with the US plan. Saddam Haftar, whose father, Khalifa, was based in Virginia until ۲۰۱۱, reportedly met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in DC in July.
Experts attribute the ongoing mediation efforts to the unified national budget of ۲۰۲۶, signed in April – the first in more than a decade.
However, there are still no talks or signs of a unified government forming.
What is Turkiye’s role?
Turkiye, which earlier deployed troops to support the GNU, has also made efforts to mediate between the two sides and is pushing a ‘One Libya’ policy.
Last month, Foreign Affairs Minister, Hakan Fidan, met with Saddam Haftar in Ankara. Earlier this month, Fidan travelled to both Tripoli and Benghazi for high-level talks with Dheibah and Khalifa Haftar.
What has Egypt done?
The Egyptian government has traditionally cooperated with Haftar’s Tobruk government, which is just across the border.
On Wednesday, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met with Khalifa Haftar in Cairo and discussed unification talks.
Earlier this month, Dheibah visited Cairo, while Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad travelled to Tripoli.
What is Qatar’s stance?
Qatar has largely backed the UN mediation channels in Libya: the UNSMIL and the UN roadmap for peace.
While it has good relations with the GNU, Qatar seeks stabilisation efforts led by Libyan parties and elections.
In April, Qatar and other states welcomed the unified budget for ۲۰۲۶. A statement issued by Qatar, Egypt, France, Germany and several others called for all parties in Libya to follow the UN roadmap to “advance a Libyan-led political process leading to unified governance and national elections.”
