As Zambians go to the polls, the ghost of the current president’s predecessor hangs over the elections.
Hakainde Hichilema, ۶۴, is bidding for a second term leading the southern African country after defeating his arch-rival Edgar Lungu by a landslide in ۲۰۲۱.
A feud between the two men, their families and supporters has dominated Zambian politics, to the extent that the quarrel has continued even after Lungu died in South Africa in June ۲۰۲۵.
Zambia’s government went to court to try to stop the burial of Lungu by his family, who did not want Hichilema presiding over a state funeral. In June, South Africa’s supreme court of appeal ruled in favour of Lungu’s family, overturning a previous high court decision in favour of the government.
In this election, Hichilema is facing the Tonse Alliance of opposition parties led by Brian Mundubile, ۵۵, who was a government chief whip under Lungu. Mundubile’s running mate Makebi Zulu acted as the Lungu family’s spokesperson during the burial row, and on the campaign trail the two men have promised to bring Lungu’s body back to Zambia for a dignified burial.
The way death is dealt with is very important in Zambia, said Christopher Vandome, a senior research fellow at the thinktank Chatham House. “Even Hichilema supporters want to see due respect given to those that have died,” he said. “When it appears things get messy, it just makes the incumbent look disrespectful.”
The shadow of Lungu has also hung over allegations by the Tonse Alliance that Hichilema has deployed authoritarian tactics during the election campaign, including raiding its offices and detaining ۳۶ members of Mundubile’s team.
Hichilema’s team furiously denied the claims, invoking Lungu’s treatment of Hichilema during the last election. “Zambians know what repression looks like. In ۲۰۲۱, the opposition leader [Hichilema] had been arrested ۱۵ times, Prime TV [a private station] and the Post [a newspaper] had been shut down, and on election day the internet was switched off,” said a spokesperson for the ruling United Party for National Development. “Today the opposition campaigns freely across all ۱۰ provinces, no media house has been closed and the airwaves are open.”
Transparency International Zambia monitors have recorded incidents of police interrupting opposition rallies, said Tamika Halwiindi, a coordinator at the organisation. “Disruptions from the police citing issues to do with safety have been noted to be more biased against the opposition and independents, as opposed to … the ruling party,” she said.
During Hichilema’s term, activists have also reported having peaceful demonstrations shut down. Mputa Ngalande of the Fight Inequality Alliance said he was among a group detained for more than ۱۲ hours in July ۲۰۲۴ when they were protesting against the state power company during a period of ۲۲-hour-a-day blackouts.
Vandome said: “[Hichilema’s] prospects of winning are very high. But his … personal lived experience of how complicated Zambian elections can be has given him this insecurity which is actually counting against him … denting his image in a way he doesn’t have to.”
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Zambia’s economy has stabilised since an economic crisis, which was triggered when it defaulted on its debts in ۲۰۲۰ under Lungu. Annual inflation is now ۶.۵%, compared with ۲۴.۶% in July ۲۰۲۱. The government made primary and secondary education free in ۲۰۲۲.
Meanwhile, Zambia has attracted more international investment in recent years due to its huge deposits of copper, a key material in green technologies.
At the start of the month, in a giveaway to young voters, Hichilema, also known by his initials HH and nickname Bally (a slang word for an elder), told a crowd of jubilant university students that he was increasing their accommodation allowance by ۵۰% with immediate effect.
However, the cost of living could still count against Hichilema in the elections, in which almost ۸.۸ million registered voters will also choose MPs and local councillors. The average annual income rose from $۱,۱۲۷ to $۱,۳۱۸ between ۲۰۲۱ and ۲۰۲۵, according to World Bank data. But prices almost doubled over the same period.
“What people are asking is: ‘If we are doing well economically, why are we not feeling impact on the ground?’” said Ngalende. “Because you will find on the ground that it is very difficult to access three meals a day.”
