Australia politics live: gambling lobby talking points ‘coming out the PM’s mouth’, Chaney says; RBA tipped to hold interest rates

What happened to Tony Burke’s migration speech?

We’re all still pretty baffled in Canberra over what happened to Tony Burke’s National Press Club address.

The home affairs minister had been scheduled to address the press club and announce significant immigration reforms – but the speech was postponed at the ۱۱th hour.

We’re told no one even asked about it at yesterday’s Labor caucus meeting.

Katy Gallagher is asked on RN Breakfast whether the new migration measures were finalised when cabinet also met yesterday, but she doesn’t say.

This is a big piece of work. Obviously we’ve been making a number of reductions. We’ve seen net overseas migration come down about ۴۵% from its peak. There’s some additional work that Minister Burke is undertaking and when that work is complete he will announce what those measures are.

‘It’s not where everyone wants to be’, says Gallagher on gambling reforms

The finance minister says the government is negotiating with the Coalition on gambling inducements as it tries to find a pathway for its reforms through the Senate.

The prime minister in his televised address to caucus yesterday hinted some further action on tackling inducements, while the opposition says it wants to see “predatory inducements” for problem gamblers banned. It suggests we might see a partial ban on inducements, but not a full block.

Katy Gallagher has moved her way down the press gallery corridor and landed in the ABC’s RN Breakfast studio – she doesn’t have any further details on how negotiations are tracking.

She points to Labor’s national conference last month which agreed to explore how to better prevent online gaming and social media platforms from offering “embedded inducements” within video games and social media accounts.

She also defends the government’s response to gambling as a whole, after it took almost three years for the prime minister to respond to the landmark ‘you win some, you lose more’ parliamentary report.

I accept it’s not where everyone wants to be, but it’s a very, very strong response to a problem that exists in our community.

‘He did not mean it’ Gallagher dragged into melon-gate

Katy Gallagher has also been asked to weigh in on the PM’s melon comments – you can see a hint of exasperation in her face as she’s asked about it on Channel ۹.

I’m sure you don’t need a recap at this point, but just in case you missed it – Anthony Albanese told the Bush Deep podcast last month the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, had given him a gift of two Japanese melons, and appeared to make hand gestures in front of his chest.

Gallagher says Albanese “did not mean it in the way that it’s been reported”.

I accept that he did not intend those comments to be made the way that some media are reporting them. It’s an important relationship, he has a good relationship with the Japanese.

Earlier this morning Michaelia Cash called the comments an embarrassment and a “diplomatic incident”.

To give you a bit of context on how Japan has taken the comments, News.com.au reported the Japanese government said there had been “sensationalised reporting” over the incident in a memo sent last month, and that they did not believe there was “ill intention” in Albanese’s comments. They said there would be no action taken over the matter.

Government sticks to Treasury advice on cooling housing market

The finance minister, Katy Gallagher, has been tapped on the shoulder to do the media rounds this morning ahead of the RBA’s rates decision.

She’s asked repeatedly on channel nine whether the government takes some responsibility for the decline in the housing market, but says the advise from the Treasury department in the budget showed house prices would continue to grow but slow by ۲%.

Yesterday big four bank Westpac said mortgage applications were down ۲۰% between mid-May and the end of July, the period right after the federal budget was handed down.

Gallagher says there’s a range of factors influencing the housing market, not just the government’s changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount:

There are other factors that influence the housing market, including the interest rate increases that we have seen over the last few months … the Treasury advice to us was that house prices would continue to grow slightly slower. Our focus on the housing market is making those tax changes so that first home buyers can get into the housing market, but also focusing on supply to make sure we’re building enough houses for people to buy.

Kate Chaney, who was on the inquiry with the late Labor MP Peta Murphy that handed down the landmark ‘you win some, you lose more’ report on gambling harm, says so far it seems the talks between the Coalition and Labor on a gambling reform package are “disappointing”.

Speaking to the ABC’s RN Breakfast a little earlier, the independent MP says the government has listened to the gambling lobby instead of the evidence.

Part of the government’s proposed reforms limit online gambling ads on television to three per hour between ۶am and ۸.۳۰pm.

But Chaney says the last time ads were partially banned, the ads didn’t slow down – they just moved to different time slots.

In ۲۰۱۷, when the last round of partial restrictions came in, the money just moved around. And for example, gambling ads after ۸.۳۰ more than doubled, increased ۱۳۱%. And I suspect that that’s what we’re going to see here too: is the money moving around.

I think it is about the government listening to the money and the power, not the people. The gambling companies make big political donations. They are present lobbyists in this building. We’re hearing their talking points coming out of the prime minister’s mouth. And the media companies and the sports codes make a lot of money out of gambling too. Unfortunately, Australians pay the cost for that. And the average Australian household loses more in gambling than they pay for in electricity. So this is our blind spot.

Monique Ryan weighs in on melon-gate

Independent MP Monique Ryan says Anthony Albanese’s now infamous interview with the Bush Deep podcast was “pretty cringe” and has joined critics who say the PM should apologise over his comments about the Japanese’s prime minister’s gift of melons.

Albanese told the podcast Sanae Takaichi had given him a gift of two Japanese melons, and appeared to make hand gestures in front of his chest.

Ryan told the Today Show this morning that “we can probably expect a bit better” from the PM.

I think that that whole interview was pretty cringe. Let’s face it, the prime minister didn’t really cover himself with glory with that. And it’s disturbing to hear that the Japanese government has expressed some concerns about it.

We’re talking about a really special gift that the Japanese state has given to the country. And if I was the PM, I’d pick up the phone to the Japanese prime minister and apologise to her on this one.

Cabinet ministers have defended the PM and called it an issue “people are trying to blow up”, while Angus Taylor yesterday said Albanese should pick up the phone to Takaichi and apologise.

Joining the panel with Ryan, shadow cabinet minister Michaelia Cash called it a “diplomatic incident”.

When the prime minister’s crude and dirty podcast banter is formally raised by the Japanese government. Anthony Albanese just has embarrassed himself. He’s embarrassed Australia. This is now a diplomatic incident because of the appalling behaviour of the prime minister.

The Reserve Bank’s latest interest rate decision is due at ۲.۳۰pm today, and the unanimous prediction is that they will hold the cash rate at ۴.۳۵% for a second meeting in a row.

Inflation is still running too hot at ۳.۸% in the year to June – miles above the RBA’s official ۲.۵% target.

But recent data shows inflation is not as high as had been expected, while unemployment is a touch higher – two signals for the RBA to sit on its hands for now.

While financial markets see virtually no chance of a hike today, they still see a nearly ۵۰% chance of a move higher this year.

A number of economists see a November hike as the most likely next move; others reckon the next move will be down (although not until the second half of ۲۰۲۷).

That means all the attention will be on the statement the RBA board issues at the time of the decision, and whether the decision to hold rates is unanimous.

RBA watchers will also be listening for what message Michele Bullock, the governor, sends at her ۳.۳۰pm press conference.

Today the bank will also release its latest set of economic forecasts in the quarterly statement on monetary policy.

Experts reckon it will still show inflation heading back to target in the next ۱۲ months, but any slippage would be a red flag that the bank might need to hike again.

The bank’s rate-setting board meets every six weeks.

Good morning

Krishani Dhanji

Krishani Dhanji here with you, and we’re so back for another sitting fortnight after a winter break.

It’s negotiation city this week in Canberra with the government hunting for deals on its overhaul to the national disability insurance scheme, gambling reforms and news bargaining incentive. The Coalition is in the hot seat for all three of those with Anthony Albanese and Angus Taylor meeting yesterday and will continue to talk over the next couple of days.

Today the Reserve Bank will also make their latest interest rates decision which we’ll all be watching with eagle eyes.

Time to stretch these (slightly) rusty fingers and let’s get cracking!