Pakistan-administered Kashmir is facing its worst political crisis in years after weeks of protests demanding electoral reforms turned deadly.
The protests forced staggered regional elections, with the second of the three-phase vote held on Sunday amid calls for a boycott by local activists and a shutdown of businesses in Muzaffarabad, the region’s main city, and other places.
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The third and final round of voting is scheduled for August ۱۰.
The protests are led by the Jammu and Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), a banned group pushing for changes to electoral laws and more economic concessions for the region.
The epicentre of the protests is Rawalakot, the headquarters of the Poonch division in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), one of the two regions that comprise Pakistan-administered Kashmir, the other being Gilgit-Baltistan.
The AJK region has its own legislature, but it is not a full-fledged province within Pakistan because of the dispute over the Kashmir territory with neighbouring India.
Muzaffarabad, AJK’s capital, is about ۳۰km (۱۸.۵ miles) from the Line of Control, the de facto border dividing Kashmir between Pakistan and India.
Residents and local estimates say the death toll has surpassed ۵۰, including seven law enforcement personnel. No official figures have been released. Protest leaders claim more than ۶۰ civilians have died in less than two months.
There has been a partial internet blackout since June ۵, according to NetBlocks, an independent observer.
According to iVerify, the fact-checking wing at the Center of Excellence in Journalism (CEJ) in Karachi, telecommunications are limited and internet connectivity is sparse in AJK.
Protesters are demanding more political rights and an end to policies they believe undermine local representation in the legislature. The government says the movement is threatening public order in the region.
Lieutenant-General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, director-general of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the media wing of Pakistan’s army, on Friday told a news conference that “Kashmiris hold a special place in Pakistan’s heart” and accused vested interests in India of attempting to create unrest. New Delhi has rejected the allegation.
Chaudhry said the state has the sole authority to use force and that violence by any group was unacceptable. He said the government was exercising “wisdom and restraint” in maintaining peace and stability.
During his press conference, Chaudhry did not mention the number of civilian casualties in the region.
What’s happening in AJK?
Though the protests started in June, their foundation was laid the month before. Here is a timeline:
Late May ۲۰۲۶: Talks between JAAC and the government in Muzaffarabad collapse over demands to abolish ۱۲ seats in the AJK Legislative Assembly.
The seats in the legislature are reserved for Kashmiri refugees who migrated to Pakistan after ۱۹۴۷ and now live outside the region.
The JAAC says the arrangement allows Pakistan-based political parties to influence the government of Pakistan-administered Kashmir while diverting development funds intended for the region.
June ۵: Authorities designate JAAC a “proscribed organisation” under the Azad Jammu and Kashmir Anti-Terrorism Act, ۲۰۱۴.
Internet and mobile services are suspended across the region, and officials advise nonresidents not to travel to AJK between June ۵ and June ۲۰, urging tourists already there to leave.
June ۷: The AJK Supreme Court rules that the ۱۲ refugee seats are constitutionally protected and cannot be abolished without a constitutional amendment.
June ۸: Clashes erupt between protesters and security forces in Rawalakot and nearby areas. Regional authorities and local media report that ۱۱ people are killed and several injured, including protesters and security personnel.
Federal paramilitary forces are deployed across the region.
June ۹: JAAC calls a regionwide general strike. Markets, schools and public transport shut down across much of AJK.
Mid-June: Weeks of strikes, sit-ins and clashes continue in Poonch division, as the death toll crosses ۲۰. JAAC protests in Rawalakot and nearby areas, while the rest of the AJK remains tense but calm.
July ۲۱: The AJK Election Commission announces a revised three-phase election schedule in response to the unrest. Voting is announced for July ۲۷ in Mirpur division, August ۲ in Muzaffarabad division and for the ۱۲ disputed refugee seats, and on August ۱۰ in Poonch division.
July ۲۷: The first phase of voting is held in Mirpur division, with early results favouring Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). On the same day, thousands join a JAAC-led march from Rawalakot towards Muzaffarabad. Deadly clashes erupt again with security forces.
August ۲: The second round of voting is held in Muzaffarabad division amid calls for a boycott and limited access to internet.
Are the protests aimed at JAK’s independence?
No, the protests are being held against the reservation of ۱۲ seats in Pakistan-administered Kashmir’s legislature for refugees from Indian-administered Kashmir who now live in other parts of Pakistan.
The JAAC accuses Islamabad of using these seats to manipulate local politics – accusations rejected by the national government.
The JAAC says all seats in the legislature must go to those who actually reside in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, and not to people living in other constituencies scattered across Pakistan.
Experts say the crisis is part of a deeper, long-running debate about governance, political representation, resource allocation and regional autonomy in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
What is the JAAC?
The Jammu and Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JKJAAC), commonly known as JAAC, is a grassroots coalition of civil society groups, traders, lawyers and activists formed in ۲۰۲۳ in the AJK area of Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
Rather than being led by a single figure, the JAAC operates as a coalition with several spokespeople, including Shaukat Nawaz Mir, Sardar Umar Nazir, Khawaja Mehran Arshad and Sardar Aman Khan. Mir was arrested in late June after the regional government banned the JAAC.
Following the ban, authorities placed all four spokespeople on a wanted list, offering a reward of ۱۰ million Pakistani rupees ($۳۶,۰۰۰) for information leading to their arrests.
What is the JAAC demanding?
The JAAC first staged a protest in May ۲۰۲۳ against soaring electricity bills, alleged smuggling of flour and shortages of subsidised wheat.
The movement reached its first major flashpoint in May ۲۰۲۴, when protesters marched towards Muzaffarabad. Violent clashes with security forces killed at least five people, including a police officer.
The demonstrations ended after the government agreed to a series of economic concessions, marking a big victory for the JAAC.
In September and October ۲۰۲۵, the JAAC unveiled a ۳۸-point charter of demands and launched a regionwide shutdown, prompting authorities to impose a communications blackout.
The charter remains at the centre of the current unrest. Its demands include economic subsidies, investigations into alleged corruption, improved social services and infrastructure, and the abolition of the ۱۲ reserved assembly seats.
AJK’s incumbent Prime Minister Faisal Mumtaz Rathore is from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which is part of the federal coalition government led by PML-N’s Sharif.
PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, says ۳۵ of the ۳۸ demands of the JAAC have been implemented, arguing that the remaining proposals are either unfeasible or blocked by court rulings.
What is the human toll of the protests?
Rights group Amnesty International said on July ۲۸ that at least ۴۰ people have been killed, including ۳۴ protesters and six police and paramilitary personnel. The group has demanded a “transparent investigation” into the use of force against protesters.
Residents and local estimates say the death toll has surpassed ۵۰, although officials have not confirmed the figure.
Amid a partial internet blackout, disinformation has further clouded the situation. Viral videos and images claiming to show staged protester injuries, fake police shootings, and AI-generated evidence have circulated widely.
Fact-checkers at iVerify Pakistan have confirmed some visuals as authentic while debunking others as AI-generated or recycled footage. However, many claims remain difficult to verify due to restricted access and the ongoing communications blackout.
Road blockades have also cut off towns, disrupting travel, work and access to healthcare.
Markets, schools and public transport have repeatedly remained shut during the regionwide strikes, while tourism has suffered after authorities urged visitors to leave.
