Good morning. Another week, another diplomatic success for Volodymyr Zelenskyy. On Monday, his first meeting with Andy Burnham as PM confirmed continuity in the UK’s steadfast support for Ukraine. “We’ve got your back,” Burnham said as the pair spoke in Portsmouth. Yesterday, in Washington DC, after attending the funeral of Lindsey Graham – a once supportive Republican senator – Zelenskyy and Trump held a “positive and productive” meeting, as per the White House. Overnight, the US Senate advanced a sweeping Russian sanctions bill.
Save for that somewhat shaky start in the early days of Donald ۲.۰, these well-executed global stage set-pieces have come to define Zelenskyy’s wartime leadership. The hundreds of billions he has secured in military, financial and humanitarian aid from the US, Europe, the UK and beyond during a period of global economic unease is remarkable.
At home, however, Zelenskyy’s grasp of statecraft appears less comprehensive. Today, he returns to Kyiv to face another political crisis, with daily protests continuing in Ukraine, after the dismissal of popular defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov. And it’s not the first time one of his domestic decisions appears to have involved serious miscalculation.
For today’s First Edition, we explore the challenges facing Zelenskyy on the home front and the battlefield, as Luke Harding, the Guardian’s senior international correspondent, shares the latest from Ukraine. Before that, this morning’s headlines.
Five big stories
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UK news | Young people will be expected to engage with new support to find work, Pat McFadden has said.
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World news | At least ۱۳ people have been killed after a ۶.۸ magnitude earthquake struck southern Japan, injuring hundreds and knocking out power and water to tens of thousands.
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Europe news | Nearly ۴,۰۰۰ people have been evacuated from tourist sites on France’s Atlantic coast as the return of winds and extreme heat jeopardises firefighters’ battles to contain wildfires raging in France and Spain.
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US news | Donald Trump hosted back-to-back White House meetings with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, as Ukraine seeks more firepower for its air defences and the Israeli prime minister tries to repair his strained relationship with the US president.
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UK news | Led By Donkeys has received compensation after a giant banner it displayed in Parliament Square saying “Yes It’s A Genocide” was seized by officials and destroyed.
In depth: ‘There’s a standoff between Zelenskyy, Fedorov and civil society’
Since taking up the Ukrainian defence brief in January this year, Fedorov proved himself effective. The ۳۵-year-old former digital transformation minister and deputy PM hit the ground running. “Fedorov is seen as a young, modernising tech-savvy reformist,” Luke tells me, from his apartment in Kyiv. “Here in Ukraine, Fedorov is believed to have cleaned up a defence ministry plagued by Soviet era practices and alleged corruption.”
Fedorov upped pay and modernised contracts for infantry, and introduced more transparent processes for procurement. There have been reports he identified significant murky military overspend. He messaged Elon Musk on X to request Starlink be switched off for Russian soldiers, and Musk obliged. It was a coup for Ukraine, and massively impactful on the battlefield. And despite his short tenure, Fedorov achieved change on the frontline too. He is a proponent of data-driven, hi-tech warfare – an approach which has shifted fighting to Ukraine’s advantage.
Vibes-wise, at least, the contrast between Fedorov and Oleksandr Syrskyi – Ukraine’s ۶۱-year-old erstwhile old school army chief – couldn’t be starker. “The culture around Syrskyi was extremely deferential and rather Soviet,” Luke says. “His reputation is that of a micromanager who hadn’t adapted to the changing nature of the war, fighting with infantry in the traditional way which comes with heavy losses.”
While the details remain unclear, Fedorov and Syrskyi clashed. Earlier this month, Zelenskyy announced a government reshuffle. Among the top tier changes was the removal of Fedorov, while Syrskyi remained in post.
It was a curious choice. He may be popular, but Fedorov appeared (previously, at least) to pose no political threat to Zelenskyy. He was a key ally and former aide to the president, a Zelenskyy loyalist. “He’s not someone who previously had independent political ambitions,” says Luke. Now, he is emerging as a potential successor.
Polling found ۷۲% of respondents were against Fedorov’s dismissal, with only ۵% for. Last week, under mounting public pressure, Zelenskyy attempted to change course. Syrskyi was sacked, and Fedorov invited back into government. It appeared the crisis was averted. Only, Fedorov has since turned down alternative senior ministerial posts, while Zelenskyy is yet to re-offer him the defence gig. “Only three positions in the state … determine the course of the war: president, defence minister and commander-in-chief,” Fedorov said in a statement.
“There’s a standoff between Zelenskyy, Fedorov and civil society,” says Luke, “and it shows no signs of resolving.”
Reforms, not scams
It’s not the first time Zelenskyy – a highly skilful diplomatic operator – has made what appears to be impulsive, certainly unpopular, personnel decisions.
In July ۲۰۲۵, a wave of protests erupted in Kyiv and other major cities, in response to the Ukrainian government’s proposals to strip two major anti-corruption bodies of their independence. Despite these demonstrations, Zelenskyy signed the bill into law, before eventually backtracking under public pressure a few months later. “It was an enormously unpopular move,” Luke says, “and a bizarre decision to make.” One of these organisations (NABU – the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine) subsequently investigated Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak who was widely understood to have been pushing for the reforms. It led to his abrupt resignation.
One year on, protesters in Kyiv have been returning to the very same spot to again voice concerns about Zelenskyy’s judgment. “Initially, they were chanting ‘Syrskyi out, Fedorov back’.” Syrski’s subsequent departure, and Zelenskyy’s appointment of a younger, highly rated new commander-in-chief failed to placate protesters. Last Friday, Luke joined them at the Ivan Franko Square – connected to Bankova Street, home of the Presidential office. “The message had shifted,” Luke observed. “They still sang the national anthem and want Zelenskyy to succeed, but now they’re chanting ‘reforms not scams’, and ‘the people are the power’.”
A path to victory
This comes at a significant juncture for Ukraine. Wartime martial law bans elections, so Zelenskyy has been in power since ۲۰۱۹, when he won a stonking majority. Despite pressure from Putin (and at times Trump) to call a fresh election, polling shows appetite is low for a pre-peacetime vote, with six million Ukrainians now based abroad, and indiscriminate Russian airstrikes posing a risk to any public gatherings. Still, reports suggest the government had explored options for holding a (ceasefire dependent) election as soon as this year, with Zelenskyy apparently negotiating with his rivals. Fedorov’s trust rating has climbed in recent weeks, overtaking Zelenskyy; it’s a trajectory worth tracking.
Meanwhile, the war is rapidly changing shape. Fedorov (and Syrskyi, who created Ukraine’s standalone drone department) have shifted focus from ground to sky. Luke has just returned from meeting one drone unit, which claims to have “destroyed the majority of Russia’s air defences” with their homemade kit. “What was once Russia’s great strength – its size and strategic depth – is turning into a liability,” says Luke. “Ukraine has regained the initiative.” Russia continues to slowly advance, but at a price of ۳۰,۰۰۰ dead and wounded troops per month.
“I wouldn’t say Ukraine is winning,” cautions Luke, “but it’s taking a path to victory that is more convincing than anything we’ve seen since ۲۰۲۲.”
Power struggle
A difficult decision now sits at the top of Zelenskyy’s in-tray: reinstate Fedorov and take the politically embarrassing hit; or stand his ground, and hope the protests peter out.
“There’s a suggestion that lots of vested interests don’t want Fedorov back as it’ll hurt them financially,” says Luke. “The protesters I spoke to believe that certain people around Zelenskyy are benefiting from the old system that Fedorov was challenging. That can’t be proven, but it’s what many Ukrainians think.”
Last year’s (botched) attempts to change those anti-corruption bodies adds to this suspicion.
Whatever motivated the initial reshuffle, to many the Fedorov/Syrskyi debacle represents something existential. “It’s a struggle for Ukraine’s soul,” Luke says, “between a younger western, progressive and inclusive generation who want Ukraine to be in the European mould, and the Soviet-inflected, insider-oriented older guard who operate in deals and handshakes and yes, some corruption.”
There is, of course, an alternative read on the public outpouring of frustration. The protests have been policed with a distinctly light-touch. Even as Russia’s violent assault continues, with UN figures showing last month as the deadliest for Ukraine’s civilians in four years, civic life continues. “It shows people understand all this isn’t just about beating Russia,” says Luke, “but constructing a decent, fair, modern, forward-looking society after victory.”
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“Burnham calls for consensus on ‘urgent’ fix for social care crisis”, is the Guardian’s top headline today. On the same issue, the Telegraph writes “Workers face new tax to fund social care”, the Times has “Shake-up of social care to lock out private firms” and the Express says “۲m missing out on social care they need”.
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