‘The crisis is deep’: The view from Russia as fuel shortages worsen

Moscow, Russia – Russia faces a severe fuel deficit as Ukrainian drone strikes knock out a significant portion of its refining capacity.

With continuing war in Ukraine and agricultural harvesting under way, the government is scrambling to re-route supplies, maintain price caps and enforce export bans to prevent further domestic shortages.

Long lines at petrol stations are now a common sight throughout the country, including in the prosperous capital Moscow.

People wait for hours to fill up their cars. In some places, the pumps are completely dry.

There is a sense of patience but also mounting anxiety in the air.

“I’m deeply frightened by the uncertainty and the lack of understanding where the situation is heading,” a woman named Irina, waiting to fill up her car in Moscow, told Al Jazeera.

Igor, another Moscow resident, said: “I think things can get out of control if the crisis causes major industries to shut down.”

Both interviewees requested to withhold their surnames.

Analysts predict that increased fuel prices will mean higher transportation costs followed by significant price hikes for goods and services.

Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund at the Russian Financial University, said the crisis is “deep, yet for a long time, Russian authorities were unwilling to acknowledge it”.

He added that the Russian response has led to “greater public distrust” of authorities and, consequently, triggered panic buying.

“Indirect evidence indicates that Ukrainian drone attacks have disabled about a quarter of Russia’s oil refining capacity,” he told Al Jazeera. “Seasonal demand has also contributed to the problem. The crisis has led to rising fuel prices and local shortages, as some regions simply lack oil refineries.”

The situation is “even worse” in regions close to the combat zone, he said. “Measures to restrict and ration fuel sales have long been in place there.”

To tackle the problem, Russia has imposed fuel rationing. Sales are often limited to about ۲۰-۳۰ litres (about ۵-۸ US gallons) per vehicle, and drivers must pump fuel strictly into vehicle tanks. Filling jerry cans is largely prohibited.

Earlier, the government banned petrol and jet fuel exports. Officials are now weighing a ban on diesel exports, too.

Authorities have loosened fuel-quality regulations, temporarily allowing lower-grade fuel for the domestic market.

In Russia-controlled Crimea, a state of emergency has been declared.

As the approaching agricultural harvesting season relies on a steady stream of diesel, authorities are prioritising farming allocations to prevent a hit to food security.

To offset the domestic shortfall, Moscow has sought fuel imports from neighbouring countries, such as Belarus, as well as Asian markets. Moscow has shipped in ۶۰,۰۰۰ to ۸۰,۰۰۰ tonnes of petrol from India, according to industry sources cited by the Reuters news agency. Russia reportedly plans to import ۴۰۰,۰۰۰ tonnes of petrol monthly from various countries.

‘I would say it is not critical’: Putin

While Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledges the crisis, he appears reluctant to end the war in Ukraine and insists the situation is under control.

“These attacks on our facilities certainly create problems, that is obvious. We are currently seeing a certain shortage, though I would say it is not critical,” he said.

“First and foremost, we have to rapidly and significantly increase production of air defence systems that are most in demand. We must also continue to improve them … Repairs at refineries must be completed more quickly.”

Ukraine is seizing its opportunity. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has authorised a ۴۰-day military and intelligence campaign, aimed at pressuring Russia into ending the war.

Mitrakhovich said the way the crisis unfolds from here depends on what’s more effective: Ukraine’s drone strikes or Russia’s air defences.