Victorian Labor MPs are both sceptical and seriously concerned about a new poll ahead of the state election showing the party trailing third behind One Nation, with its primary vote at an all-time low of just ۱۸%.
The DemosAU/PremierNational, first published by the Herald Sun on Monday, showed Labor’s primary vote share has crashed seven points to ۱۸%, putting it in third place behind the Coalition’s ۳۳% and One Nation’s ۲۱%. At the same time, the Greens improved their primary vote to ۱۷%, an increase of three points since September.
It means the Coalition now leads Labor on a two-party preferred basis ۵۶-۴۴, compared with ۵۲-۴۸ in September.
George Hasanakos, DemosAU’s head of research, said if the poll were replicated on election night then many contests across the state would be between the Liberals or Nationals and One Nation, which would then result in a “clear Coalition majority”.
“If that happens, One Nation has to poll really, really well to have a chance of winning, because Labor and Greens preferences will flow to the Liberals,” he said.
On election night, the Victorian Electoral Commission plans to conduct a two-candidate-preferred count, or ۲CP, between the two candidates it expects to finish with the most support after preferences are distributed. The commission is selecting the indicative ۲CP for each seat based on polling, analysis of preference flows and results from previous elections. It will not publish the indicative ۲CPs before election day to avoid influencing voter behaviour.
Hasanakos added that he “double, triple, quadruple checked” the result of the “extraordinary” poll, which had ۱,۵۶۲ respondents, an effective sample of ۸۱۸ and a margin of error of ۳.۴%.
“We went to the trouble of a bigger sample here, and I stand by it,” he said.
Ben Carroll repeatedly refused to say whether he was worried about the poll at a press conference in South Melbourne on Monday morning.
“What I’m focused on every day is fighting for working people and making sure that every Victorian that goes into the ballot on November ۲۸ knows that under my government you have a government on your side that will fight for you,” he told reporters.
“The alternative is a Liberal-One Nation government that will fight against you – they’re going to shrink the economy, cause a recession and make life difficult for every single Victorian.”
But the result has sparked serious concerns among the Labor caucus, even though some MPs are sceptical about the ۱۸% figure. Inside Labor’s campaign headquarters, they are treating the result as an “outlier” and point to other public polls that have their primary vote in the ۲۰s.
Several Labor MPs, unauthorised to speak publicly, have told Guardian Australia there are many in the caucus questioning their party’s strategy.
This includes a focus in recent days on crime – an issue that is typically a Coalition strength. On Sunday, Carroll announced a $۲۰۴m plan to enable judges to sentence low- and mid-level youth offenders to a new rehabilitation detention program, while on Monday he announced $۷۰m to recruit ۲۰۰ more police reservists to reopen stations and build and upgrade more stations.
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“Caucus is really angry and deflated, because this is all happening because of him,” one MP said.
“Even if it’s higher than ۱۸, and we get back into something with a two in front of it, the experiment has been an epic fail, the campaign is in freefall, and it’s about to get a whole lot worse.”
Another MP said the focus on crime was “diabolically stupid strategy” as the government had years to tackle community concern around rising rates.
The opposition leader, Jess Wilson, on Monday said her party had a focus on “getting tough on crime”, including by introducing Aidan’s Law to toughen sentencing for attacks on people who step in to protect others.
Carroll immediately matched the commitment to introduce the proposed law, named after ۲۲-year-old Aidan Becker, who was fatally stabbed at Mernda station after stepping in to protect a ۱۴-year-old during an alleged violent robbery.
It comes as Pauline Hanson rejected reports by the Age and ۶۰ Minutes on Sunday that her former national campaign director Sean Black continues to secretly work for One Nation in Victoria.
Black in ۲۰۱۸ was jailed for rape and subsequently lost his appeal against the conviction but was then rehired by One Nation in ۲۰۲۰ as a campaign director after serving his time. Hanson sacked him after political pressure earlier this year.
She told the Australian Financial Review on Monday “the day that I sacked him [Sean Black] that was the day he finished up”.
