Since Tuesday’s midterms, United States President Donald Trump has shifted his rhetoric between threatening Iran and suggesting that a resolution to the war is near.
After accepting a devastating Republican defeat at the elections and acknowledging his deeply unpopular war on Iran was partly to blame, Trump told reporters on Thursday the US may have to “destroy” the rest of Iran, adding that people will “know soon enough” if he acts.
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On Friday, US forces carried out what he described as “minor strikes” against Iranian air defence systems, and Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, reported two missiles had again struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.
But on the same day, Trump said the US administration is talking to Iranian representatives and told reporters, “We’ve made a lot of progress with Iran.”
Observers say Iran’s intransigence over the demands it has made of the US before it will reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz to shipping, balanced against Trump’s drubbing at the US midterms, has painted the US president into a tricky corner over what to do next.
So besides the mixed messages from him, what is happening on the ground and what is most likely to happen next? Here is what we know:
Is the US talking to Tehran?
Trump said it is, several times, on Friday.
“We’re dealing with them now. They want to make a deal,” the US president told reporters, without providing further details.
On Saturday, Majed al-Ansari, spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, dismissed claims circulating on X that negotiations between the US and Iran had failed, warning that such claims benefit “only those seeking to prolong the war”.
Why has the US struck Qeshm Island again?
Trump confirmed the US had carried out military strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island on Friday, while Iranian state media reported two missile strikes in the Suza area of the island. This follows what the US described as “defensive strikes” on the island, considered to be a primary naval base for Iran and housing “missile cities“, earlier this week.
The US says it is targeting missile launch systems. On Monday, an unnamed US official told AP that Washington had conducted the strikes to prevent “Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against US assets”.
Iranian state broadcaster IRIB also reported an Iranian army statement, saying the country’s air defence forces intercepted and destroyed a US MQ-۹ drone over the island.
In response to reports of explosions heard on Qeshm, US Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees US military operations in the Middle East, said the situation is “relatively calm”.
Will the US strike nuclear sites again?
Tehran appears to be preparing for it.
Iran is distributing iodine tablets to communities near its nuclear facilities, the United Kingdom’s Times newspaper reported, quoting a Ministry of Health official who said, “Trump can no longer be trusted. He may go through with this crime.”
The official added that during every war, Iran has tried to distribute the tablets within a radius of ۲-۳km (۱.۲-۱.۹ miles) of nuclear facilities.
Iodine tablets are used to protect the thyroid gland from radiation.
The newspaper reported that an Iranian political journalist said officials had been told at a recent briefing that a US nuclear strike on the heavily fortified Pickaxe Mountain site, beneath which is believed to be a large complex of tunnels and facilities, is being seriously considered.
The Young Journalists Club (YJC) news agency in Iran also reported on Friday that health authorities have been distributing iodine tablets to residents of the southern city of Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational nuclear power plant.
The US State Department’s Rewards for Justice programme meanwhile announced on Friday it is offering a reward of up to $۲۰m and possible relocation for information about Iran’s nuclear programme, including its facilities, equipment and associated personnel.
Why does Trump have such a dilemma about what to do next?
Politics and Iran’s tactics.
Trump is facing strong opposition to the war at home from voters and from within his own Republican Party, angered by the loss of control of both houses of Congress at the elections. But he has long insisted he will not accept Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting peace talks. These include lifting sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, ending the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and guaranteeing an end to attacks.
Facing a decision on whether to bend to these now or risk further wrath at home by pushing ahead with attacks, Trump is in a tight spot.
Iran’s strategy in responding to US-Israeli attacks by attacking bases and facilities in neighbouring Gulf countries has weakened Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at home and narrowed their options in any confrontation with Iran, Hassan Ahmadian, an associate professor at the University of Tehran and deputy director of the Middle East Scientific and Strategic Studies Center, wrote on X.
Now, Iran is threatening to widen its responsive strikes, suggesting countries beyond the Gulf could be hit next.
Ahmadian said Trump has no clear idea of how a limited strike would end, “and that’s what feeds his personal hesitation and the splintered views of his circle on Iran”.
“None of this means he won’t attack Iran,” he said, but Trump wants to be sure a strike is worth it, gives him “a respectable way out”, and does not lead Iran to widen its response into an all-out war against US forces and Israel.
Iran’s “cognitive warfare” has kept Trump “in the fog” about what would follow a limited war, Ahmadian said, and he “needs to make up his mind fast, before next January”.
What will happen next?
No one seems certain, but the US and Iran say they are prepared for any eventuality.
The US news website Axios quoted a US official saying that CENTCOM is preparing for the resumption of major military operations in Iran, and that it is just waiting on orders from Washington.
Tehran warned it will retaliate on a wider scale than it has done so far if the US resumes the war.
“In the event of a new aggression, any country or force that helps America attack Iran can be a legitimate target of the Islamic Republic,” a spokesman for the supreme adviser to the commander of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday.
Iran has also previously warned that cables, data centres and artificial intelligence (AI) facilities across the Gulf region could be attacked if war erupts again.
But behind the bombastic rhetoric, diplomatic efforts continue.
On Thursday, Iran offered the US a new nuclear and peace proposal via Qatari mediators, to be discussed only after Washington meets Tehran’s seven demands, a senior Iranian official told the Reuters news agency. The US is examining the proposal, Reuters reported.
Former Iranian diplomat Hadi Afghahi told Al Jazeera that Tehran can ease the path to a settlement if the US also shows flexibility. He argued that Trump “really does not want to go to war, because war again will cost him more”.
However, Afghahi cautioned that Trump “is still surrounded by a group of hawks”, including the energy and treasury secretaries.
Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, during a public interview at Oxford University on Friday, urged the US and Iran not to wait for a “perfect moment” to reach a deal to end the war.
