Police are heading for failure unless the number of forces in England and Wales is slashed, with their ability to catch criminals collapsing and public confidence falling, Britain’s top officer will say on Friday.
The stark comments from Sir Mark Rowley, the commissioner of the Metropolitan police, come as some police leaders demand a radical package of reforms.
An official review ordered by the government has concluded that the number of police forces in England should be cut from ۳۹ to as few as nine “super forces”, according to multiple sources.
The review, carried out by the former Met police commissioner Bernard Hogan-Howe, is yet to be published.
Sources say that under consideration is the establishment of nine regional forces, plus a single force for Wales, which would sit above more than ۱۵۰ local policing units that would deliver most neighbourhood crime-fighting activities.
The axing of most of the ۴۳ forces in England and Wales is seen as essential by the Hogan-Howe review and some police chiefs. Those chiefs, including Rowley, are concerned that the government may delay the most radical change to policing in seven decades.
Hogan-Howe’s review was completed in September and sent to the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood. Government sources say only that it will be published before Christmas, with a white paper due in the new year.
The delay is understood to be because of Andy Burnham’s devolution agenda and desire to “rewire” the British state and reform local government, including adding more mayors.
One police source said: “There are some concerns Andy Burnham may want to align the new police structures with mayors, which could mean ۲۰ or more forces. That is not a radical enough change.”
Rowley will speak at an event in Manchester on Friday where he and other chiefs including Greater Manchester’s chief constable, Sir Stephen Watson, will press for a reduction in the number of forces.
The event’s title is “The cost of standing still is that criminals will win”. Some other chief constables have told the Guardian they are annoyed by the Met-organised event and are sceptical or do not support the big reduction down to nine forces.
Cutting the number of forces in England and Wales is the centrepiece of Mahmood’s radical changes to policing. Hogan-Howe’s report, multiple sources say, gives a range of how many larger forces there should be in the new policing landscape, from nine to ۱۸.
Rowley will say in his speech that public confidence has already fallen and that positive outcomes – that is, crimes detected by officers that lead to a charge, caution, out of court settlement or no further action – “are now less than half what they were ۱۲ years ago”.
According to extracts released before the speech, Rowley will say: “I believe this is a choice between the third greatest revolution in British policing or the inevitable decline and fewer bobbies on the beat.”
He will say the ۴۳ forces in England and Wales should be cut to eight or ۱۰, and add: “Policing has tried to keep up, made do as best it can to patch over our broken model … But the model is creaking. We have ۴۳ overstretched forces trying to do too much with too little.”
Hogan-Howe believes the changes would free up policing to rapidly innovate as new crime types and threats emerge. The ۴۳ forces model, overseen by ۴۳ police and crime commissioners, is accused of being too slow and delivering a postcode lottery of varying service for crime victims.
Hogan-Howe came out publicly in favour of a reduction to nine forces ۱۲ years ago.
The bigger forces would handle major crimes – such as murders and serious sexual violence – and public order, as well as expensive but essential back-office functions such as human resources, currently done by each of the ۴۳ forces individually.
Above the regional forces would sit a new nationwide force called the National Police Service, which the government wants to be the home of counter-terrorism policing and serious and organised crime. The advert for a commissioner for the national force is expected to be issued early in the new year.
There is division among police leaders about the big reduction in forces. Some favour voluntary mergers, and the new white paper will allow the mass abolition of forces and creation of new ones to be enforced.
The changes could lead to a vast south-east England force stretching from the London borders to the southern coast of England. A new north-west force would extend from the Mersey to the Pennines, covering Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Lancashire, as well as swallowing up smaller forces such as Cheshire and Cumbria.
One chief constable told the Guardian: “Everyone knows ۴۳ forces have to go. But the return on investment could take five or six years.”
Another chief constable said: “If I was the chief constable of the super force, it would be such a huge area, I wouldn’t know anybody. I worry about it being too big.”
Matthew Scott, the Conservative police and crime commissioner for Kent, said: “They will spend a great deal of time tearing up the fabric of policing for a suboptimal outcome.” The government plans to abolish PCCs as part of its changes.
Another police leader asked: “Where is the evidence bigger forces are better?” They cited the fact that in recent years the largest – such as the Met, Greater Manchester and West Midlands – had failed so badly they had been put into special measures and their chief constables or commissioners had been ousted.
Scotland and Northern Ireland are each already covered by a single force.
