Spain’s deadly train crash redraws electoral battle lines

A few minutes past ۹am on Wednesday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez posted a message on X declaring there were “lots of reasons to be optimistic about this country”.

His left-wing Socialist Party (PSOE) had sought to seize upon anger over Spain’s housing crisis as a campaign issue ahead of the November ۲۹ election.

Less than an hour later, news of a deadly train crash began to emerge, transforming the campaign. The safety of Spain’s railways, its infrastructure and the government’s ability to deliver essential public services are now key issues after ۶۹ people were killed nine months after a similar disaster.

The mood has changed and Sanchez’s Socialists could be in trouble, analysts say, as the conservative opposition has been handed new grounds to challenge the government on competence and security.

“There are no winners in this tragedy, but it marks a new tone for the campaign where the conservative party could be more comfortable,” said Yolanda Roman, global director for public affairs at ATREVIA, referring to the Popular Party (PP) that has been leading in the polls.

Sanchez’s Socialists were heading for a public debate they could manage, “but after this major tragedy the political framing for the election changed dramatically in all senses”, she added.

PP’s leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo, the prime minister’s main rival, has demanded accountability.

“This is the moment to respect the dead, the injured and their families. That does not mean we will ignore the fact that Spaniards are asking tough questions that demand answers,” he said.

In the wake of the crash, he said the PP would suspend campaign activities for two days.

The far-right Vox leader, Santiago Abascal, who is likely hoping to enter a coalition government with the conservatives, did not show the same restraint.

“We, too, are in mourning – but do not expect us to stay quiet. We will not maintain a complicit silence. It is my duty to denounce Sanchez’s criminal handling of affairs and to work tirelessly so that this coming November ۲۹th … Spain may rid itself of this mafia-like gang,” he said on X.

Hundreds of mostly far-right demonstrators gathered in front of Spain’s Transport Ministry to call for the prime minister’s resignation. “Spain can’t take it anymore,” read a banner.

The political fallout unfolded as questions mounted over what caused the crash.

At ۸.۵۳am (۷:۵۳ GMT) on Wednesday, a high-speed train travelling from Madrid to Seville slammed into the back of another stationary train on the same track. The incident took place close to Toledo, south of the capital.

Spanish officials pointed to a failure involving the LZB train-control system, which has been used on the Madrid-Seville high-speed line since it opened in the ۱۹۹۰s.

Transport Minister Oscar Puente rejected claims that the accident showed Spain’s railway system was unsafe, describing it as “reliable and safe”, while acknowledging the limits imposed by equipment and human error. His remarks did little to quell the debate over the condition of the country’s rail infrastructure.

Isabel Pardo de Vera, the former president of Adif, the state-owned company responsible for managing Spain’s railway infrastructure, criticised the government over the transition from the older LZB system to the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS). Her comments raised further questions about the pace of modernisation and whether warnings about the network had been adequately addressed.

The crash has revived memories of other fatal accidents. In ۲۰۱۳, ۸۰ people died in a derailment at Angrois, near Santiago de Compostela in the country’s northwest.

Spain’s high-speed rail network has long been regarded as one of the country’s flagship public services, alongside its healthcare system. It carried about ۴۵ million passengers last year, including millions of tourists.

A survey conducted by Spanish media in January, after the previous fatal crash, found that ۵۷ percent of respondents believed rail services had deteriorated since Sanchez took office, while nearly ۶۰ percent said they had little or no confidence in the country’s railway system.

For Sanchez, the timing could not have been worse.

His party has faced corruption scandals involving his inner circle. Separate investigations have targeted Sanchez’s wife, Begona Gomez, over alleged influence-peddling and business corruption, and his brother, David Sanchez, over the circumstances of his public-sector appointment. Both deny wrongdoing.

The government had also been criticised after ۸۰,۰۰۰ migrants crossed into Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta in late July. The Socialists had faced a backlash from right-wing parties and security personnel over alleged failures to adequately invest in border infrastructure, despite repeated warnings from staff.

And opinion polls have been predicting gains for the far-right Vox party, which lies at the opposite end of the political spectrum.

Sanchez’s election bid

In late September, images of ۸۷-year-old Maricarmen Abascal being evicted from her apartment in Madrid went viral.

The episode triggered uproar, channelling discontent over the cost of living and the housing crisis.

Sanchez seized the momentum and called for snap elections: social policy was at the centre of the debate, and the party was hoping to build an electoral campaign. It had even prepared a series of measures dubbed “Social Tuesdays” to make it clear what its agenda was focused on. His campaign was upbeat.

Then the train crash happened, shifting the campaign away from the social issues the PSOE had hoped to highlight.

The government, Roman explained, would now have to spend more time defending its record and answering questions about accountability.

Sanchez hopes to convince an estimated ۷۵۰,۰۰۰ undecided left-wing voters of his social agenda, she said.

His PSOE appeared to gain some traction in early October, but was still trailing in most surveys.

The latest polls this week show the Socialists at ۲۶.۷ percent, still behind the PP at ۳۱.۵ percent. The far-right Vox party remains in third position at ۱۹.۱ percent.