This week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov travelled to Iran, where he met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and several other officials. The visit came on the tail of two meetings between Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin on October ۸ and September ۱.
Media reports have indicated that Moscow has offered to mediate between Washington and Tehran in talks on a possible nuclear deal. Whether these efforts will be successful is too early to judge, but there are several factors that could make Russia a potentially more effective mediator than others.
As a major nuclear power and with state-owned nuclear energy giant Rosatom being a leader in the world’s civilian nuclear energy field, Russia is eminently competent in all aspects of the Iranian nuclear programme.
Moscow’s general attitude towards that programme has been clear. It supports Iranian ambition to have domestic nuclear energy generation; it is currently building two new units of the nuclear power plant in Bushehr. But it opposes Iranian development or acquisition of nuclear weapons. It certainly doesn’t want nuclear proliferation so close to its borders.
Furthermore, Russia’s relations with Iran, long testy, have markedly improved recently. One of the reasons for the growing trust between the two countries has been that both have been attacked by the United States: directly in the case of Iran and indirectly, in a proxy war fashion, in the case of Russia.
In ۲۰۲۲, Washington openly set the goal of “inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia”. Then, Iran came to Russia’s aid and transferred to Russia its Shahed drone technology.
In early ۲۰۲۵, the two countries signed the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which outlined the parameters of expanding economic, political and military cooperation. It is important to note that the Russians proposed a mutual military assistance clause to include in the treaty, but the Iranians demurred.
Thus the criticism that Moscow supposedly failed to come to Tehran’s defence in the ۱۲-day war of ۲۰۲۵ and in the ongoing military conflict is ill-informed. Russia has stood by Iran and has repaid its debt.
Helping the US reach a new nuclear deal with Iran would be clearly in Russia’s interest. Although Russia sees Iran as the true victor because of its stunning resilience in the face of the US-Israeli attacks, it also realises the enormity of the damage inflicted on its partner. Russia hopes that peace would unlock its major logistical project, the International North-South Transport Corridor to India, which passes through Iran.
Moscow also sees the Arab Gulf monarchies as important and useful allies and doesn’t want to jeopardise relations with them because of Iran’s retaliatory strikes against their territories. Even if Russia has gained financially due to the surge in oil prices as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, these gains are of short duration. The continuing blockade is not in its interest.
Moscow is also in a strong position to mediate with Iran because it was part of the eight-party talks that led to the ۲۰۱۵ signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) addressing Iran’s nuclear programme.
Of those eight, the US withdrew while France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union lost their standing in both Washington and Tehran because of their actions.
This essentially leaves US President Donald Trump with Russia and China. Russia, for its part, has already stepped up mediation efforts. This month, Putin reportedly delivered an Iranian proposal by phone to Trump. In parallel, there is heightened US diplomatic activity to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, where Trump for the first time is applying pressure on Kiev.
Meanwhile, the US president has mentioned that an unprecedented trilateral meeting with Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen next month would make sense if it were focused on denuclearisation.
It is important to remember that the crises in Eurasia – from Ukraine to Iran and Taiwan – are intrinsically linked because they involve the principal geopolitical and military players of today’s world: the US, China and Russia.
The fact that for the first time ever the leaders of these three countries are discussing the possibility of a trilateral meeting is more than just a topic for pundits to mull on air.
This may not be the dawn of a new world order, but it could be a small step to balance wars with diplomacy.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
