McConnellsburg, Pennsylvania, USA – Calvin Ott, the owner of a landscaping business in a consistent stronghold for United States President Donald Trump, is one of several so-called “MAGA voters” whose support has not wavered – even as life has gotten a lot more expensive since the president returned to office last year.
“I’m ۷۵ years old, and I’m still working,” Ott says as he sips his Coors Light beer under the dim lights of Fulton Pub in McConnellsburg.
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The pub, which serves as a watering hole for the town’s approximately ۱,۰۰۰ residents, is where Ott unwinds after his doctor’s appointment before making the one-hour drive back through the Appalachian Mountains to his home in Shippensburg.
“I had quadruple bypasses. I’ve had skin cancer. I have my fingers cut off. I’ve had several heart issues”, Ott said with a bit of pride, showing off his right hand that has fallen victim to decades of chainsaw and lawnmower accidents.
Despite rising medical costs – his medications have more than doubled in price since last year – and his inability to retire as he approaches his ۸۰s, the three-time Trump voter said he will continue to vote for Republicans in next month’s US midterm elections.
“I support him ۱۰۰ percent,” Ott told Al Jazeera as Foreigner’s song Urgent played in the background of the pub.
In ۲۰۱۶, less than ۶,۰۰۰ people in Fulton County, where the town is located, supported Trump’s presidential campaign. That number rose to more than ۷,۰۰۰ eight years later, helping to fuel Trump’s return to the White House.
For Ott, his support is less a reflection of what Trump has done than what Democrats would do if they were in power.
“He’s the only president that made a promise that he kept,” Ott said. “He hates wars, even though we’re in one. But he’s for America.”
“What the hell did Biden ever give out?” he railed about the economic policies of Trump’s Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, which included a $۱,۴۰۰ stimulus cheque to Americans through legislation during the COVID-۱۹ pandemic.
Who deserves the blame?
The unrelenting support for Trump among his most loyal supporters runs through Republican strongholds like McConnellsburg.
MAGA voters like Ott make up the backbone of the president’s support: working-class, white, without college degrees, and angry with Washington.
A poll conducted last month by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that just ۱۷ percent of US adults approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while slightly more than a quarter of those surveyed approve of his handling of the economy overall.
Trump’s most fervent supporters say their frustrations – and economic burden – have only grown since Trump’s re-election. But unlike most Americans, they don’t blame the president for the country’s economic woes. Instead, they point to Biden, who left office last year in January.
Seated at the bar next to Ott is Rebecca Lashley, a retired nursing assistant who said Trump deserves the benefit of the doubt after Biden’s policies.
“It took Biden four years of screwing up. How’s [Trump] gonna fix it in two years?” Lashley asked.
Ott agreed.
“Do you realise what Biden left that man? He left that man a hell of a big plate”, he said.
It’s a familiar line frequently touted by the White House.
Since his return to power for a second presidential term in ۲۰۲۵, Trump and members of his administration have regularly claimed they aren’t to blame for the nation’s cost-of-living issues. In social media posts last month, the president wrote that “price increases throughout America were caused by Sleepy Joe Biden and the Biden Administration, not by ‘TRUMP.’”
“We’re coming out of years of energy subtraction,” US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a recent Fox News interview as he blamed the Biden administration for rising fuel prices.
Five hours south of Pennsylvania, in ruby red Amelia County, Virginia, Terry Williams largely agreed with Trump.
After cooking up a Sunday breakfast, the delivery driver sank deep into his well-worn, waterfall-back couch to prepare for a full afternoon of football viewing. But before the day’s first kickoff, he issued a blunt, expletive-laden rant about a “bullshit” economy that larger “deep state” forces were preventing the president from fixing.
“I think that Trump just [blames Biden] because he just can’t come out and tell people the truth,” the self-described “Trump-lican” said as smells of bacon grease emanated from his kitchen. “The reason why I say that is the Federal Reserve. Their answer to everything is to print money.”
“The Federal Reserve Bank, the stockholders of the Federal Reserve, whoever the hell these people are, they’re creating more currency because they don’t have no choice.”
Williams, who voiced support for Trump’s second-term pressure tactics on the Fed to lower interest rates, said policies created by the US central bank have left the country with currency that has no real intrinsic value.
“I just believe that this economy is an illusion and we’re using fake money,” he said.
‘I have to sacrifice’
After Trump campaigned on a promise to bring down stubborn inflation wrought by the pandemic, his second term has consisted of a range of broadly unpopular initiatives that have forced higher prices on much of the country.
His tariff policies, instituted during a “Liberation Day” event at the White House last year, have minimal support. The AP found that nearly ۶۵ percent of Americans blame Trump’s policies for high costs.
The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates tariffs put in place under Trump resulted in an average tax increase of more than $۱,۰۰۰ for US households last year. After the US Supreme Court rendered most of the president’s tariffs illegal in January, that estimate is slightly lower at $۸۲۰ for ۲۰۲۶.
The policy’s impact is felt even more acutely in Virginia, which, according to the National Taxpayers Union Foundation, has paid an estimated $۶.۲bn extra since Trump’s tariffs were implemented. That breaks down to just under $۱,۸۰۰ per family.
But some of the state’s MAGA voters, like Williams, say despite the extra cost, they “believe” in Trump’s tariff policy, arguing it should be expanded.
“I love the thought of a tariff system. That way, the American people do not get taxed,” Williams said. “I love that concept.”
But it is the war in Iran that could prove to be the most consequential for Trump and Republicans when Americans make their midterm picks.
As the conflict stretches into its eighth month, just ۲۷ percent of registered US voters said last month that they approve of it, according to a New York Times/Siena poll. That number, however, is much higher among Trump’s most loyal supporters: ۶۵ percent.
“If it needs to happen to save our republic, absolutely,” Williams said of Trump’s war on Iran. But he expressed unease at increasing petrol prices wrought by the president’s war.
Since the first US-Israeli attack on Iran was launched in late February, fuel prices in the US have skyrocketed. The national average for regular petrol is $۴.۲۹ a gallon (۳.۸ litres), up more than $۱.۳۰ from last September, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).
Trump has begun to acknowledge the war — and its resulting economic impacts — could cost his party control of Congress.
“Well, it’s possible,” Trump told reporters earlier this month. “Because Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. So when you say, ‘Is it OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon?’, I would say ۱۰۰ percent of the people say ‘no’, including worldwide. So, when you say it that way, it would help. If you don’t say that, it could hurt.”
For the sake of US security, most MAGA voters say they’re willing to bear the cost of Trump’s Iran decision — and America, they believe, should, too.
“What would happen if he wouldn’t have done that? What would happen? Nothing good,” Lashley said. “We have to sacrifice to make things better. I don’t care who you are. We’re with him to make that sacrifice.”
Ott explained how the war’s higher fuel prices have forced changes to his landscaping business. He’s had to tack a fuel surcharge onto his customers’ bills and lay off more than a dozen employees.
“I don’t have a problem with it,” Ott said about the war. “I have a business, and I have to sacrifice.”
Trump promises
President Trump has repeatedly promised that Americans will eventually reap the rewards of his policies.
After launching what turned out to be a trade war with US allies, Trump last year promised to use tariff revenue to give Americans what he described as a $۲,۰۰۰ “dividend” payment.
“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS!” Trump posted to his Truth Social account on November ۹, before adding, “A dividend of at least $۲۰۰۰ a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”
The Trump administration had refunded more than $۱۰۰bn as of late August following the Supreme Court ruling. But that money went to businesses, not directly to ordinary Americans.
In the lead-up to the midterms, Trump has made promises of more cash payments. During his speech at the Republican National Committee midterm convention in September, the US president said US adults would receive a $۵,۰۰۰ “Trump dividend” if his party “wins” next month’s elections.
Polling indicates that proposal has backfired, with ۴۵ percent of unaffiliated voters telling NBC News they would be less likely to support a candidate who’s in agreement with it.
But it plays well — extremely well, even — with Trump’s base, whose members believe they’re entitled to a form of compensation from the government.
“I think it’s great if the president can help all people that need it,” Lashley said. “I mean, we got the money. We all contributed in our life to our country.”
“I paid tax all my life. I deserve something back”, Ott said. “They never give me nothing.”
Lashley stood up and replied, “That’s right!”
‘They’re taking everything’
Most Americans say Trump’s economic policies have burdened, rather than benefitted, them.
About seven in ۱۰ Americans, including more than half of Republicans, believe his handling of the cost of living has been “worse than expected”, according to the AP poll.
But MAGA voters say they are sticking firmly with the president, even as his economic agenda faces growing criticism across the country.
To understand why his most hardcore supporters remain loyal, it is important to understand how Trump built his political coalition in the first place.
A study by New America found that Trump’s coalition has been closely bound and heavily driven by resentment towards opposing cultural and political groups. Lashley reflected that sentiment when she blamed immigrants for the country’s cost-of-living crisis.
“They’re taking over the businesses in our country. They’re taking everything,” she said. “I’m not on board with giving people who come here more than what we get. No!”
Lashley went even further, saying she wished Trump could remain president for the rest of his life.
“I wish he could be our president until he died,” she said. “What is going to happen when he’s gone? That’s what really worries me.”
“I trust Trump with my life,” Ott said.
Rising prices alone have not been enough to sever the bond between Trump and some of his most loyal voters.
For many of them, the choice is not simply between an expensive economy and a cheaper one. It is about what – and who – might come after Trump.
“I’m afraid that somebody’s going to get in there that’s not gonna do the job, and then we’re gonna go downhill again,” Ott said. “I worry about the Democrats”.
“Me too. They’re crazy,” Lashley replied.
“What they’re gonna do to this country. We’re gonna be suffering,” Ott said. “We might as well be living in South Africa or somewhere like that.”
That loyalty could prove important in November.
In this year’s Republican primaries, Trump has demonstrated that the GOP primary electorate will follow his lead. A string of victories by candidates he endorsed in the US states of Indiana, Kentucky and Texas has further solidified his grip on the party.
While the president’s political instinct for activating his loyal, but often low-propensity, voters in critical elections has generally been effective, it is less clear whether they can hold back a rising wave of Democratic support.
Progressive and liberal-leaning candidates have coalesced around a message of affordability and lower prices – an approach that has resonated with voters who feel increasingly squeezed by Trump’s policies.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in August showed that US voters gave Democrats a ۳۶ to ۲۸ percent advantage over Republicans on cost-of-living issues.
While Lashley acknowledged that the issue resonated with her, she said there were no circumstances in which she would consider voting against the president.
More than ۷۰ percent of US voters who identify with MAGA indicated in a September PBS News/NPR/Marist poll that they were voting in this election to support Trump.
For Williams, who said he plans to vote a straight Republican ticket in November, the economy is not his priority. The choice, he said, boils down to a battle he described as good versus evil.
“Look at the s*** that they’re trying to shove down our kids’ throats with these drag shows and the gender changes,” Williams vented as he described some Democrats’ positions on transgender rights. “Now I don’t know about you, but that’s evil right there. And I have a huge problem with that.”
But Ott said he was sticking with Republicans because of his optimism that economic conditions in the US would improve during the second half of the president’s term.
“[Trump] is gonna do more,” he said. “This economy is going to be so much better.”
