US President Donald Trump has announced an immediate “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, days after easing sanctions on Russian fuel to tackle soaring domestic and global fuel prices.
The energy truce, announced on Sunday, marks another shift in Washington’s approach to Russian energy, as the Iran-US war and recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities disrupted global oil supplies and pushed up fuel prices. Trump has even asked Ukraine not to attack Russian oil facilities, as Moscow remains a major exporter of diesel.
Recommended Stories
list of ۳ itemsend of list
The spike in diesel prices in recent weeks has particularly put pressure on Trump’s Republican Party ahead of November’s midterm elections. Surveys show Americans hold the Trump administration responsible for the soaring fuel prices amid the unpopular US war on Iran.
“Attacks on refineries and energy facilities have taken capacity out of an already stretched global fuel market, pushing up costs for transport, agriculture and businesses, with the pain ultimately passed on to consumers,” Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, told Al Jazeera, referring to the mutual attacks on energy sites by Ukraine and Russia.
“A genuine ceasefire could help protect supplies and ease some of that pressure, particularly as winter approaches.”
However, she warned it was too early to call it a “diplomatic breakthrough”, citing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement that the energy truce came as a surprise to him.
Trump’s decisions have drawn criticism from US politicians and European allies, who warn that allowing Russian fuel back into global markets could provide Moscow with new revenue to finance its war in Ukraine. In March, the Trump administration gave a sanctions waiver to Russian seaborne oil.
So, why has Trump repeatedly changed his position on Russian energy, and what is behind his latest decisions?
What is the ‘energy ceasefire’ Trump announced?
On Sunday, Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to immediately stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure.
“Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” he wrote on Truth Social, without providing further details.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was not aware of the energy truce, saying the deal was “news to me” but welcomed the announcement nonetheless.
However, he said Russian drones continued targeting Ukrainian energy facilities, including a power plant in Kharkiv, after Trump’s statement.
“We are waiting for the details of the conditions between the Americans and Russians, and we are waiting to see one specific step the Americans are ready to take,” Zelenskyy said on Monday during a video address to a security conference in Warsaw.
“This energy ceasefire, it can work, and it can become a major step towards ending the war if the Americans truly step in now and make sure Russians respect it.”
Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russian oil refineries, arguing that energy revenues help fund Moscow’s war. Russia, meanwhile, has attacked Ukraine’s electricity and heating infrastructure throughout the four-year conflict.
Academic Alexey Muriaev has urged caution over Trump’s announcement, questioning whether an agreement has actually been reached, and if so, what it entails.
“Is it about suspending attacks on oil refineries? And if that’s the case, then the situation would be inadequate, because Ukraine’s oil refineries have already been taken out by Russia’s strikes beforehand,” Muraviev, senior research fellow in Defence and Strategic Studies at Edith Cowan University, told Al Jazeera.
“So, in this sense, it would mean effectively Ukraine suspending unilateral action against Russia’s oil refinery facilities.”
Muriaev also linked the announcement to Trump’s diesel agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting it may be a signal to Zelenskyy.
“Attacking Russian oil refinery capability would probably be interpreted by Washington as an attack on US economic interests,” he said, referring to the agreement on diesel exports through April ۲۰۲۷.
What’s the state of global oil prices?
The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have continued to keep global oil markets under pressure.
On Monday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell to about $۱۰۳.۰۴ a barrel following Trump’s ceasefire announcement and Russian diesel deal, while US West Texas Intermediate crude traded at about $۹۰.۹۶.
However, prices remain elevated because of the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February ۲۸, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies flow.
Recent attacks on Saudi oil installations and airports by Yemen’s Houthis and the fighting around the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait have put further pressure on oil prices.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have compounded diesel shortages, affecting a fuel essential for the agriculture and trucking industries.
The crisis prompted the Group of Seven nations last week to agree to release ۱۰۰ million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves. The G۷ decision came after pressure from Trump.
How has the Trump administration zig-zagged between punishing and embracing Russian energy?
Washington’s approach to Russian energy has shifted repeatedly since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February ۲۰۲۲.
Under President Joe Biden, the US banned Russian oil and energy imports in March ۲۰۲۲, seeking to cut off revenue used to finance Moscow’s war.
But Washington simultaneously supported a G۷ price cap on Russian oil, designed to restrict Moscow’s earnings without removing too much supply from global markets.
Moreover, the Biden administration also accepted India’s continued purchases of Russian crude to prevent global prices from rising.
After returning to power last year, Trump initially intensified pressure on Moscow. In August ۲۰۲۵, his administration imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods over New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil.
Two months later, Washington sanctioned Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, accusing Moscow of failing to seriously pursue peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
However, Washington’s approach took a dramatic turn this year. On March ۵, Washington issued a ۳۰-day waiver allowing India to buy Russian oil stranded at sea, as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid US attacks on Iran threatened global supplies.
A week later, the Trump administration expanded the exemption, allowing countries worldwide to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers, with the waiver lasting until April ۱۱.
In September, Trump urged Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries, blaming the strikes for global diesel shortages.
On October ۹, he announced an agreement with Russian President Putin for Moscow to release more than ۳۰۰,۰۰۰ tonnes of diesel immediately, with another ۱.۵ million tonnes to follow.
Why has Trump changed his position on Russian oil frequently?
Trump’s shifting public position on Russian energy reflects ongoing, and often competing, political and economic pressures.
“Trump is caught between his geopolitical ambitions and the domestic political consequences of expensive energy,” Susannah Streeter of Wealth Club, told Al Jazeera.
She said Washington was trying to pressure Moscow over its war in Ukraine while simultaneously allowing Russian fuel sales that could generate additional revenue for the Kremlin.
“The shift may deliver a short-term political gain if supplies increase and prices ease, but it could come at a longer-term diplomatic cost,” she said, adding that the benefits appeared limited while the Middle East war continued.
US diesel prices reached a record $۶.۵۲ per gallon in September, placing Trump under pressure ahead of the November ۳ midterm elections.
However, according to academic Muriev, the US president’s public rhetoric should be distinguished from his administration’s actions.
“I don’t really see inconsistency in Trump’s approach because, apart from his public rhetoric, apart from his frequent media posting, there’s been a more steady approach on behalf of his administration,” he told Al Jazeera.
He pointed to discussions between Russian and American officials in August and September, suggesting that negotiations over the latest diesel agreement may have begun well before Trump’s announcement last Friday.
Muriev suggested the timing of the announcement could be politically motivated, allowing Trump to claim a victory on energy prices before the midterms.
Moreover, Moscow also has an interest in helping Trump retain political influence because his administration appears more willing to negotiate with Russia than former President Biden was. Trump has been relatively more accepting of the Russian position on the Ukraine war and has even blamed Zelenskyy for failing to end the war.
“For Putin, it’s not just about scoring immediate economic benefit, but also achieving longer-term political and strategic goals,” Muriev said, referring to other issues such as Iran, cybersecurity, space cooperation and nuclear arms control.
The energy crisis has also created contrasting consequences for American businesses.
While higher oil prices can boost revenues for US energy producers, they increase operating costs for businesses dependent on fuel.
Susannah Streeter said cheaper diesel could provide relief to trucking companies, farmers and manufacturers, although the additional Russian supplies were unlikely to make a significant difference while disruptions in the Middle East continued.
She also warned that frequent changes to sanctions could create uncertainty for companies making long-term investment and supply-chain decisions.
“If sanctions are relaxed, reimposed or changed at short notice, companies face greater uncertainty over sourcing, compliance and the risk of being caught on the wrong side of a policy reversal,” she said.
