“Get your asses in that car.” That was Donald Trump’s order, he later recalled, to his motorcade after foul weather grounded Air Force One in Texas on Thursday. The ۸۵-mile dash to Oklahoma at nearly ۱۰۰mph was proof that nothing can keep Trump from a Trump rally.
Which might not be the good news for Republicans it once was. As the US president embarked on a ۳۲-day campaign blitz aimed at helping them defend narrow congressional majorities in next month’s midterms, some fear that he is driving them towards an electoral wipeout.
Trump’s approval rating is at an all-time low. Voters are angry about the cost of living, the Iran war and excessive immigration crackdowns. Some Republicans are moving to distance themselves from a man they now see as more liability than asset. Wherever he turns, the outlook is grim as he sets off on an expected schedule of five to seven rallies per week.
“They’ve been a mainstay of his brand, but they’re also the engine of his doom,” Steve Schmidt, a political strategist, said of Trump’s signature campaign rallies. “Everybody knows the obvious, which is that his presence hurts every Republican candidate on the ballot because the race is fundamentally about Trump and the American people are sick and tired of him.”
Schmidt added: “He’s surrounded by people who tell him that he’s beloved and that the answer to his problem is to keep talking, to keep performing, to keep doing the rallies, that the answer is more, not less. These rallies have become his lead weight, his proverbial anchor that’s going to drown them all.”
Even in a hyper-digital age, Trump’s rallies have shown the enduring power of live performance. The atmosphere, somewhere between cult worship, rock concert and partisan sports event, offers his followers a sense of belonging. Since launching his bid for president in ۲۰۱۵ he has held roughly a thousand of them, though definitions of what counts as a full “rally” can vary.
Blake Marnell, a rally regular in a brick-patterned suit resembling Trump’s border wall, was in Oklahoma on Thursday night. He said: “Getting in the motorcade, driving ۱۰۰ miles an hour to Durant – he’s not gonna let stuff get in his way. He enjoys the rallies. They’re energising for the crowd and for him. It’s a way for him to connect with the grassroots.”
Once in Durant, Trump again basked in the adulation of the rally crowd. Having spotted two diehard supporters being interviewed by TV crews outside the venue, he replayed the clip and summoned them on to the main stage. “You can’t miss big, strong, handsome Oklahoma studs,” he said. “Where are you? Come up here!”
The pair were white, male and elderly. One, wearing a green Trump cap and grey Trump T-shirt, stepped up to the microphone and said: “Thank you, President Trump, for all you do. Every day you work harder than any American I know.” The other, wearing a red Make America Great Again cap and red T-shirt, said: “Absolute honour of a lifetime to be with the greatest president this country has ever had!”
Marnell, from San Diego, California, loved this example of Trump showmanship and dismissed the notion that his rallies are hurting rather than helping Republicans. “That’s ridiculous. How many years now have we heard critics saying that Trump is done, the end is near, the walls are closing in, this is the beginning of the end, he can’t possibly win.
“They’ve written him off so many times, I don’t know why people listen when they say things like that. It makes no sense to me. This election is, to an extent larger than normal, going to be swayed by turnout and so turnout is the goal of these rallies.”
Yet beneath the carnival atmosphere in Oklahoma lay an undercurrent of anxiety and a new vulnerability. At one point Trump entreated the audience, “Pretend I’m running, please,” and begged them to contact friends and relatives. He openly admitted the Republican party’s precarious footing across the national map. “We’re worried about Michigan, we’re worried about Texas, we’re worried about a few states.”
He has cause to be worried. A recent survey by the Associated Press-Norc Center for Public Affairs Research found that just ۱۷% of US adults approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while ۲۶% approve of his handling of the economy – a new low. Only about three in ۱۰ approve of how he is handling his job as president.
In a striking sign of trouble, a major Republican political action committee has reportedly pulled back its spending in North Carolina, the only battleground state Trump won in all three of his presidential bids, diverting its resources instead to ruby red Kansas.
Even among dedicated fans who have followed him around the country and become known as “front-row Joes” at his rallies, doubts are creeping in. Trisha Hope, a “front-row Joe” who once bought an RV and published a book of Trump’s tweets to fund her travel, recently declared him a “fraud and liar”.
Speaking to Politico, Hope cited Trump’s abrupt dismissal of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation during a cabinet meeting, as well as his unfulfilled promises regarding the war in Iran. “If we do lose the midterms and he is impeached again, I will be walking the halls of Congress in support of that impeachment,” she said.
But when confronted with the negative numbers, the president has sounded like a man in denial, preferring to discuss his architectural projects in Washington including a new White House ballroom.
At his stop in Denton, north-west of Dallas, Texas, earlier on Thursday, he insisted that inflation was entirely the fault of Joe Biden as he dismissed concerns about everyday living costs. “We have the greatest numbers of any president in the history of our country, and I can’t get the word out,” Trump lamented to workers at a truck factory. “Maybe we’re doing a bad job selling it.”
John Zogby, an author and pollster, said: “It looks as if he’s very out of touch with the reality of most Americans. Of course, he has spent a lifetime being out of touch and creating that kind of lifestyle for himself.”
The ۸۰-year-old’s rally performances have noticeably deteriorated, Zogby argues, marked by rambling digressions that fail to speak to the immediate anxieties of ordinary voters. “Number one, he is tending to digress. He’s not on his best form. But secondly, when he does address affordability, it’s, ‘Wait and see, just a little longer, the war will be over.’ It’s not connecting.”
The strain between Trump and Republicans was highlighted this week by a secret audio recording from a high-dollar fundraiser. On the tape, obtained by The New York Times, Texas attorney general Ken Paxton – whose Senate campaign has been floundering under the weight of scandals – was overheard candidly admitting to donors that Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas damaged Republican prospects.
Paxton admitted: “When we did that convention, it dropped our numbers; everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now? Yeah. It’s not good. I wish there was something we could do to turn that around, but obviously nothing.”
At the event in Denton, Trump praised Paxton as one of his “most loyal people”, while jokingly adding: “I have to always remember that because he can be a pain in the ass sometimes, I’ll be honest. Is he here, by the way? Oh, there he is — good. I didn’t even know if he’s here. I don’t care!”
The president also insisted: “My heart is in it like never before.” Yet his early campaign schedule has raised eyebrows. He is spending the first five days of October in Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska, all reliable Republican strongholds in recent years. Critics say it shows that he is on the defensive.
Schmidt, who worked for Republicans George W Bush and John McCain, observed: “The BS stops on the map. When you’re campaigning in October as a Republican in those states, not only does it mean you’re losing, it means you’re losing in a biblical sense, an end-times sense. The reality is that there’s no safe Republican anywhere in the country. That’s why he’s there.”
Generic congressional polls show Democrats holding a lead approaching double digits, raising the spectre of a “blue wave” that could sweep away Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. A Republican official said: “We’re not going to send Potus to areas where it would be hurtful to our candidates.”
For Democrats, Trump’s tour through safe conservative territory is an open admission of weakness.
Michelle Lujan Grisham, the governor of New Mexico, suggested that reminding voters of Trump’s presidency in the final weeks of the campaign is a strategic blunder on his part. “In those places, I would hope that it hurts,” she said. “People are angry and you shouldn’t be reminding them. So, I’m going to say go ahead. Maybe he should spend some more time in Texas.”
Lujan Grisham criticised Trump’s second term, pointing to what she described as a litany of broken promises, economic mismanagement and foreign policy overreach.
“He promised to deliver for Americans and he did none of the above. He’s in a war that nobody wants in Iran that he can’t get out of. He’s doing nothing for inflation; he’s making it worse. And he certainly isn’t addressing affordability.”
She singled out the administration’s aggressive policies under Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which she described as a major moral and political liability for the White House. “ICE of course is a huge liability for the White House and this administration, just given they continue to detain both lawfully present individuals and Americans. We’ve had Americans lose their lives, and we’ve devastated whole communities and families. He’s in real trouble.”
Trump hopes the campaign rallies that featured so prominently in his victories in ۲۰۱۶ and ۲۰۲۴ will do the trick again on behalf of Republicans in ۲۰۲۶. They will also feed his appetite for the cheering faithful that have become central to his political identity. Schmidt sees a parallel with the faded Hollywood star from one of Trump’s favourite films, Sunset Boulevard.
“He needs attention like Norma Desmond and that’s who he’s become here at the nadir of his presidency as he moves from king of the hill into decrepit lame duck. All of the Führer rallies in the red states don’t change the fact. There’s no amount of money that could be spent on his behalf, no amount of rallies, nothing that can save him from the judgment that’s coming down on his head.”
