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Climate change is driving a gray whale “catastrophic mortality event” in the Pacific Ocean as melting sea ice depletes food sources and the animals starve, environmental groups warn.
Meanwhile, a range of other issues, like ship strikes, oil spills, microplastic pollution, algal blooms and Russian harvesting are also probably contributing to the die-off that has nearly halved the whales’ estimated population. It fell from ۲۰,۰۰۰ in ۲۰۱۹ to fewer than ۱۳,۰۰۰ this year, and the deaths appear to be accelerating.
Environmental groups have petitioned the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) to relist the gray whale under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), which would alleviate some problems, but its approval is a long shot as the Trump administration moves to gut wildlife protections.
The whales are in “very, very serious trouble”, said Rick Steiner, an Alaska marine ecologist and chair of Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility’s (Peer’s) board of directors.
“The stranding numbers last year and this year are enormous compared to their annual average,” Steiner said. “Stranding” is the term for whales that wash up onshore.
The gray whales, which travel from Baja California to Alaska to feed each year, came close to extinction in the ۱۹۷۰s, but rebounded following robust conservation efforts. They were delisted from the ESA in ۱۹۹۴, which Steiner called a “colossal mistake”.
The estimates are most dire for ۲۰۲۶ – somewhere between ۲,۵۰۰-۸,۰۰۰ whales are estimated to have died so far this year, which meets the criteria for a “catastrophic mortality event”.
Determining an exact number is difficult because marine biologists can only count the whales that are stranded. The average annual number of gray whale strandings from ۲۰۰۶ to ۲۰۲۳ was ۴۳, but rose to ۱۷۹ in ۲۰۲۵. Through the first half of this year, ۱۴۶ whale carcasses have been directly counted.
Scientific literature estimates the ratio between unobserved, or sunk, mortalities offshore and observed mortalities onshore for gray whales is between ۷-to-۱ and ۲۵-to-۱.
The whales that wash up are emaciated, Steiner said, and the scientific consensus is that they are starving due to a loss of access to food sources that is driven by the dramatic reduction in sea ice around Alaska due to climate change.
While the whales have been resilient in the past, evidence points to a dire situation, said David Weller, a Noaa marine biologist, in an agency release.
“The environment may now be changing at a pace or in ways that is testing the time-honored ability of the population to rapidly rebound while it adjusts to a new ecological regime,” Weller said.
Some of the stranded cetaceans show signs of being struck by ships and their propellers, and Indigenous populations in Russia hunt the whales, killing up to ۴۰ annually. The groups claim the hunt is for subsistence, but the whale meat is actually fed to cattle, Steiner said.
Also, the Trump administration is increasing oil drilling in the region, which creates more pollution and threats.
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State and federal governments can act, Steiner said. A Noaa response to the petition to relist the gray whales under the ESA is due in about a month, and, if the Trump administration ignores it, or rejects the request, then Peer will sue, Steiner said. The second Trump administration has so far not listed an animal on the endangered or threatened list, and it has taken unprecedented steps to try to dismantle the ESA.
Steiner said the science was so clear on the issue, and the whales were “immensely” popular in the US west, so he is hopeful that the gray whale will be the administration’s first listing.
“The gray whales are in dire straits, so hopefully they see that and this can be the first one they list,” Steiner said.
California has ship speed reduction zones in areas known to have higher gray whale concentrations, and, though the program is voluntary, many ships do reduce their speed, and some station spotters to look out for whales, Steiner said. Those have reduced whale ship strike deaths in the region by about ۵۰%.
Oregon, Washington and Alaska have not implemented similar programs because of shipping industry opposition, Steiner said, but advocates are pushing for action.
“If you lose thousands of whales in two years – that should concern everyone,” Steiner said.
