Can Germany’s Merz hold on to power after CDU’s election wipeout?

Stuttgart, Germany – Minutes after the results of the first exit polls flashed across German screens, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) declared in a televised statement at the party’s headquarters that he was going nowhere.

“It’s a disaster,” he said of the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September ۲۰. “What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience. I will muster them – as party chairman of the CDU and, above all, as chancellor of our country.”

But pressure on Merz is mounting.

On Thursday, a survey by Germany’s public broadcaster ARD found that only one in ۱۰ respondents were satisfied or very satisfied with his work. That is the lowest figure for any chancellor since the survey began in ۱۹۹۷.

His party crashed out of the state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, failing to clear the ۵ percent threshold needed to win seats – the first time this has happened since the Federal Republic of Germany was founded in ۱۹۴۹. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came first with more than a third of the vote.

On the same day in Berlin’s state elections, the CDU suffered another major setback. It came second after The Left party, which won ۲۵.۷ percent of the vote. The Left now hopes to form a government in the capital although it will need coalition partners.

Just two weeks earlier, the CDU suffered another blow. The AfD won the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, receiving more than ۴۰ percent of the vote, compared with ۱۷ percent for the CDU.

No obvious successor

Merz could face a revolt within his own party, but removing him as chancellor would be considerably harder.

Under Germany’s Constitution, the Bundestag can replace a chancellor only by simultaneously electing a successor with an absolute majority.

Wolfgang Schroeder, a professor of political science at the University of Kassel, told Al Jazeera: “The CDU is in a situation where it can’t really get any further with Merz, but it also doesn’t know how things would work without him. There is no attractive replacement, so there is no alternative.”

A former chairman of the BlackRock investment company’s German supervisory board, Merz had long harboured ambitions of becoming chancellor but was sidelined by then-Chancellor and -CDU leader Angela Merkel in the early ۲۰۰۰s. He staged an unexpected comeback, finally taking office in May ۲۰۲۵.

At the helm, Merz has drawn criticism for remarks about the country’s “Stadtbild” (cityscape), widely interpreted as a suggestion that there were too many refugees and migrants on the streets. The debate has resurfaced in recent days with prominent CDU figures returning to the issue after the party’s poor election results.

The AfD’s surge is but one factor behind the decline of Germany’s long-dominant conservative party, which has produced six chancellors in its history.

The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, govern Germany in coalition with the Social Democratic  Party (SPD). The government is struggling amid the rising cost of living, deindustrialisation, crumbling infrastructure and a housing crisis in major cities.

Nils Diederich, a professor emeritus of political science at the Free University of Berlin and a former SPD member in the Bundestag, said Merz has failed to make a good impression but argued he is not the main reason for the CDU’s poor results.

“Overall, I see the coalition itself as the main problem,” he said. “The Social Democrats have worn themselves out in the coalition. They have lost their sense of direction and are putting the brakes on reforms. That, in turn, is dragging the CDU down with them.”

Schroeder told Al Jazeera: “It’s possible that the crisis surrounding the chancellor could develop into a fundamental crisis for the CDU and from there into a crisis for the coalition.”

The reform dilemma

In July, the German government announced a package of ۳۴ measures, including reforms to pensions, taxation, bureaucracy and the labour market. Merz originally intended to push through his repeatedly promised reforms by the end of the year.

But the state elections have put the coalition parties under greater pressure to stake out their own positions.

To ease the burden on people in need of long-term care and to plug multibillion-euro deficits, the SPD is calling for a cap on care costs and for people with private health insurance to share the costs. The CDU firmly rejects both proposals on legal and financial grounds.

State premiers from both major parties and the SPD leadership want to retain the option of retiring without a pension reduction after ۴۵ years of contributions, which they see as a reward for a lifetime of work. The conservative bloc’s business wing, however, insists that the provision be phased out.

Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of the SPD is planning new revenue measures to consolidate the budget but faces fierce resistance from CDU state premiers and conservative legislators determined to block any tax increases.

Schroeder warned that the coming months could be difficult.

“The CDU is caught in a dilemma. If Merz continues down the path of reforms that place a burden on society, the likelihood of cooperative governance with the SPD will diminish further. If he goes along with the course the SPD is proposing, pressure within the party will increase.”

Diederich said: “If the reforms fall through, then either Merz or the Social Democrats would have to act and let the coalition collapse.”

The next major election test will come in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, where voters elect a new parliament in April.