Zack Polanski has said his authority as leader of the Green party of England and Wales does not depend on winning next week’s Holborn and St Pancras byelection, amid suggestions the party’s popularity may have peaked.
Polanski, who is trying to take Keir Starmer’s former seat from Labour, described the contest as “probably ۵۰/۵۰ right now” and “really on a knife edge”.
Asked in an interview with the Guardian how much his position as leader depended on victory, Polanski said: “It doesn’t depend on it whatsoever.”
He added that the election had ramifications for politics nationally but “not for my leadership”.
“I’ll be completely honest, it won’t surprise you to know that I want to win the seat,” Polanski said. “I think the seat is winnable, and I think it’s probably ۵۰-۵۰ right now. It’s really, really on a knife edge.”
Senior Green party figures privately fear defeat in Holborn and St Pancras could severely damage Polanski’s leadership, amid concerns the party’s rapid rise in membership and polling has not translated into campaigning strength on the ground.
Attempts to concentrate resources on the byelection have caused internal friction, with the Guardian revealing last month that Polanski wanted the Greens’ annual conference postponed so the party could focus on the contest. That proposal was rejected by its executive.
Polanski, who has never been an MP, maintained there were “still advantages to being a leader outside Westminster”, while also arguing that entering parliament would offer another way of putting pressure on the Labour government.
The byelection has become an early test of whether Labour under Andy Burnham can reclaim progressive voters who have moved towards the Greens, and the result may inform the government’s decisions over expanding North Sea oil and gas drilling.
“I see this election as high stakes for people in Holborn and St Pancras and high stakes for the climate crisis,” Polanski said. “We know that … a decision on [drilling projects Rosebank and Jackdaw] has been delayed until after this byelection, because Andy Burnham literally wants to see whether he can get away with drilling for new North Sea oil and gas.”
The Guardian has reported the Jackdaw decision is likely to be held until after the byelection, while a decision on Rosebank is still pending. Burnham has promised a more “pragmatic” approach to North Sea oil and gas than his predecessor, as the government balances its climate commitments against pressure over energy security and jobs.
Both projects already hold licences granted under the Conservatives, meaning approval by Labour would not amount to issuing new exploration licences.
Asked whether Burnham’s surge could win back younger and progressive voters from the Greens, Polanski said there were two possibilities. One was that Burnham “means what he’s saying right now” and would actually “implement action today and not tomorrow, and not after the next general election”. In this case, Polanski said, the country would improve as a result of pressure from the Greens and others.
The other, which Polanski called “the more likely scenario”, was that “what we’re getting is talk”. He said Burnham was “promising things after the next general election, but soon we’re going to have a budget that he’s already warning is going to be a difficult budget”.
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In this case, he said, “more and more people will start to question why would you vote for the Labour party or get involved with the Labour party when the Green party has been growing for over a year now”.
He added: “You don’t have to accept the half-fat version. You can join the Green party and actually make sure we have the country that Andy Burnham’s talking about, but not taking the action on.”
Arguing that Labour’s climate policy had a gap between rhetoric and actions, Polanski asked: “Does Andy Burnham just not care about the climate crisis? It just feels like such a glaring gap in everything that he’s talked about, not just because of Rosebank and Jackdaw, but in the need to invest in renewables, the need for a clean green revolution, the need for new jobs, and it just feels like this vision is just not there.”
He added: “When are we going to see difficult choices for the super rich and the very, very wealthy? Instead, he’s talking about difficult choices for pensioners. So already, the action is not meeting his ‘hope’ rhetoric, and I think people are already starting to ask questions.”
Referring to arrests of Palestine Action supporters outside the Labour party conference, Polanski said: “Those people on the doorstep, they can see that Ed Miliband stood on stage and told many of us that we were right on Palestine, but just behind him, outside the conference hall, pensioners were still being dragged off, being arrested for holding signs up saying ‘I support Palestine Action’.”
Polanski is facing a separate test of his leadership at the Green party’s annual conference, where members are due to debate a deeply contentious motion declaring “Zionism is racism”.
Asked about criticism from senior Greens who believe he has failed to provide leadership over the issue, he said: “Leadership is about priorities, and this motion isn’t my priority. My priority is the cost of living. My priority is nationalising Thames Water. My priority is ending the genocide that’s happening in Gaza and freeing Palestine.”
Some Jewish Greens have raised concerns about what the motion could mean for their place within the party.
Asked whether he could guarantee that a Jewish member would not face disciplinary action simply for attending a synagogue that identified as Zionist, Polanski said: “I can guarantee that this motion has absolutely nothing to do with disciplinary action against anyone.”
