‘She doesn’t give up that easily’: France’s Le Pen eyes the Elysee

Hours after an appeals court lifted a ban on Marine Le Pen’s eligibility for the next presidential election while upholding her embezzlement conviction, France’s far-right leader announced plans to run in ۲۰۲۷ – possibly with an electronic ankle bracelet.

“I am a candidate in the presidential election. I will not change my mind,” Le Pen told the TF۱ television channel.

Europe’s right-wing forces had been watching closely as some had expected her to hand the reins to her protege, Jordan Bardella, who at ۳۰ is ۲۷ years younger than Le Pen, popular, and more savvy on social media.

Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party opposes globalisation and immigration and seeks stricter border controls and fewer ecological policies. She is the daughter of the party’s founder and has run for president unsuccessfully three times.

“It’s like Russian nesting dolls. Jordan Bardella is part of Marine Le Pen’s political doctrine, and he’s committed to her,” RN lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy said on French TV channel BFM.

In March ۲۰۲۵, Le Pen was convicted of embezzling European Union funds. The original ruling disqualified her from running for public office for five years, but the appeals court reduced the ban to ۴۵ months with ۳۰ months suspended. The ban started in March last year, so she has already served the ۱۵ months.

She is now planning to appeal to the Court of Cassation, which is the country’s top civil court.

Rim-Sarah Alouane, legal scholar and an associate researcher in public law at the University Toulouse Capitole, told Al Jazeera: “If she appeals, there will still be legal uncertainties into her campaign with the possibility of a final judgement shortly before or during the election. But if she does not appeal, she’s accepting a criminal sentence while running for the highest office.”

Although political corruption cases are not rare in France, Beatrice Guillemont, a legal researcher at the University of Bordeaux, told Al Jazeera: “The judicial approach to this particular trial is unusual. The court of appeals agreed to expedite the proceedings in order to issue a ruling before the ۲۰۲۷ presidential election. The Cour de Cassation indicated that it will do the same.”

‘Legal uncertainties into her campaign’

Before ۲۰۲۰, there was a push to fight corruption and reinforce political integrity in France, but the political climate has shifted.

“There are loopholes in the system. France’s public policy on combating corruption is insufficient,” Guillemont said. “This is a real issue in the workings of democracies, and it speaks volumes. To me, it actually reflects a backlash.”

But being an eligible candidate and operating a presidential campaign are two different things, according to Alouane.

“It’s quite unprecedented because she’s going to run for election while serving a criminal sentence under electronic monitoring,” she said. “Even if judges were to grant a big authorisation to travel, we can ask whether this is compatible with the realities and the principles of a presidential campaign.”

The far-right’s popularity in France has normalised in recent years.

Before her conviction, an opinion poll predicted that Le Pen would secure up to ۳۷ percent of votes in the presidential election – more than ۲۲ points higher than in ۲۰۲۲ and ۱۰ points ahead of any other candidate.

After Le Pen’s conviction, the RN’s rising star, Bardella, had been positioned as the party’s potential presidential candidate. He attracts a younger subset of the French population that the far right has traditionally struggled to reach.

‘She’s extremely dangerous’

In France’s last parliamentary elections, the proportion of ۱۸- to ۲۴-year-olds who voted for the RN doubled in two years. Bardella, who dropped out of college, joined the party when he was ۱۶. Before being elected to the European Parliament, he had never held public office. Now, he is president of the RN.

“Bardella is the guy who has always been waiting to be the frontrunner. I don’t think it will happen just yet because Marine Le Pen is well established. She doesn’t give up on her seat that easily. This is a very hereditary, elitist party,” Alouane said.

If Le Pen does run and succeeds, she could appoint Bardella as prime minister.

For Baptiste Colin, a ۳۱-year-old theatre production assistant in Marseille who votes left, Le Pen is a more viable candidate than Bardella.

“Honestly, she’s extremely dangerous. She has an incredible ability to persuade people and to turn everything to her advantage,” Colin told Al Jazeera. “We have a lot of work cut out for us on the left to prepare for another election in which Le Pen is a candidate.”

Bardella is pro-corporation and less antagonistic to the EU than Le Pen.

He has positioned himself as an advocate for the French everyman and everywoman although that has been called into question recently when he announced his relationship with Maria Carolina de Bourbon des Deux-Siciles, an Italian princess and influencer.

“Bardella is currently steering towards an economic shift more in line with [Prime Minister Giorgia] Meloni’s in Italy –  a shift towards liberalisation. Marine Le Pen has always maintained a populist stance on economic issues,” Colin said.

Although the court of appeals maintained Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction, the reduced sentence seems far too light for Colin.

“Before, I felt that democracy in my country had worked,” he said, adding that he sees organising the left as one of the biggest challenges going into ۲۰۲۷.