Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to hold talks with United States President Donald Trump at the White House during his state visit – the first by a Chinese leader in more than a decade – as the world’s two largest economies are locked in an ongoing tussle over trade and artificial intelligence.
Trump is expected to welcome Xi on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews outside the US capital, Washington, DC, in a rare gesture for a high-stakes three-day visit by the Chinese leader.
He ramped up tariffs on Chinese goods after returning to power in ۲۰۲۵, and has since imposed curbs on the sale of AI chips to Beijing as the two nations compete for supremacy in the AI race.
The future of their fragile trade truce will be high on the agenda when the two leaders meet on Thursday. US trade with China fell sharply in ۲۰۲۵, with trade declining nearly ۳۰ percent compared with the year before.
But China’s trade with other countries has seen a sharp rise, with Beijing registering a $۱.۲ trillion global trade surplus last year.
So, what will be on the agenda of the talks, and who is really winning the US-China trade war?
Where does the US-China trade war stand?
A Congressional Research Service report noted that as of July ۲۰۲۶, Chinese goods in the US faced a tariff rate of ۳۶.۵ percent, while US goods entering China were taxed at ۳۱ percent. These tariff rates are averages, not product-specific.
The rate varies sharply by product. For example, Chinese copper and its products faced an effective rate of ۷۳.۶ percent in June ۲۰۲۶, while aluminium and its products faced ۶۵.۲ percent, iron and steel items about ۵۰ to ۵۸ percent and vehicles and auto parts ۴۴.۴ percent. These figures show the variety of tariff layers applicable to specific products.
China, meanwhile, maintains a ۱۰ percent additional tariff on US imports on top of its normal tariffs and product-specific duties. For example, US crude oil faces ۲۰ percent, LNG ۲۵ percent, soya beans ۱۳ percent, and US beef can face up to ۷۷ percent.
Soon after resuming office in January ۲۰۲۵, Trump imposed a ۱۰ percent duty on Chinese goods over fentanyl and immigration concerns, leading to the ongoing trade war. Beijing responded with levies on US coal, LNG, crude oil, and autos, as well as additional curbs on exports of five metals key to defence and clean energy.
By April ۲۰۲۵, the trade war escalated, with Chinese goods attracting ۱۴۵ percent tariffs while Beijing imposed a ۱۲۵ percent levy on US imports, in addition to curbs on rare-earth exports.
The rivals struck a tariff truce after talks in South Korea, which is due to expire on November ۱۰.
However, the truce has not prevented Washington and Beijing from engaging in trade curbs. Last month, the US banned imports of humanoid robots produced in China, sanctioned Chinese shipping operators over alleged handling of Iranian fuel, and imposed restrictions on other sectors, including a threat to sanction Chinese AI firms.
Beijing said it was left with “no choice but to take necessary countermeasures”, unveiling a package that sanctioned US firms and curbed exports of drones and their tech to the US.
Is the trade war limited to tariffs?
No, the tariffs are only one aspect of a broader economic and technology rivalry between the US and China.
The trade conflict also includes sanctions, entity lists, investment restrictions, and research restrictions, alongside turning supply chains into instruments of economic pressure.
China’s leverage is concentrated in critical minerals, and it has restricted exports of rare earths – crucial for semiconductor manufacturing and AI. Beijing controls almost ۹۰ percent of global processing and refining capacity, and that dominance makes these restrictions particularly consequential for electronics, electric vehicles and defence equipment.
Meanwhile, Washington’s main leverage is advanced technology. The US restricts China’s access to advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment, although the policy has become more selective in recent months.
Earlier this month, the US started a trial against Huawei, accusing the Chinese tech giant of stealing technology.
How has it affected US-China trade?
According to the latest US Census Bureau data, US-China bilateral trade has fallen by ۲۹ percent – from $۵۸۴bn in ۲۰۲۴ to $۴۱۵bn in ۲۰۲۵.
The contraction has continued into this year: trade between the two countries reached $۲۲۲bn in January-July, down ۱۴.۵ percent from the same period in ۲۰۲۵ and ۳۱ percent from January-July ۲۰۲۴.
The decline is driven mainly by lower US imports from China. US imports fell from $۱۹۴bn in January-July ۲۰۲۵ to $۱۵۶bn in the same period in ۲۰۲۶, which is ۳۴.۶ percent less than the corresponding period in ۲۰۲۴.
China’s imports of US products remained virtually unchanged year-on-year at $۶۵bn in the first seven months this year, but fell about ۲۰ percent compared with ۲۰۲۴.
The US goods trade deficit with China fell from $۲۹۷bn in ۲۰۲۴ to $۲۰۳bn in ۲۰۲۵. Between January and July ۲۰۲۶, it stood at $۹۱bn, but the significant decline in the deficit is driven by the US importing fewer Chinese goods rather than selling them more.
Has the trade war hurt China?
While US-China bilateral trade took a hit, Chinese exports have increasingly been redirected towards other markets as Beijing took advantage of Trump’s tariff war against countries around the world.
China’s total goods exports rose ۶.۱ percent in ۲۰۲۵, reaching about $۳.۷۷ trillion, according to its National Bureau of Statistics.
Chinese exports to ASEAN countries rose ۱۴ percent in ۲۰۲۵, to about $۶۶۰bn, making it Beijing’s largest export market. Exports to the European Union countries rose ۹ percent, to about $۵۶۰bn.
In the first half of this year, Chinese exports rose ۱۳.۴ percent, their ۱۱th consecutive quarter of growth, according to government statistics. For instance, China-ASEAN trade reached $۷۴۴bn in the first seven months, up ۲۴.۷ percent from a year earlier.
China is selling more to Asian, European, African and Latin American countries as it moves up the value chain behind electric vehicles, batteries, electronics, machinery and other high-tech goods.
Until August this year, China had a goods trade surplus of about $۸۲۰bn – already approaching the mammoth ۲۰۲۵ full-year surplus of roughly $۱.۲ trillion.
Has the US trade deficit gone down under Trump?
Well, no. Though the central argument behind Trump’s tariff regime was anchored in reducing Washington’s trade deficit, the goods-and-services trade deficit has remained stagnant.
The US government data show that the goods deficit was $۱.۲۰۱ trillion in ۲۰۲۴, before Trump’s presidency. In fact, it rose to $۱.۲۳۵ trillion in ۲۰۲۵, an increase of ۲.۸ percent in Trump’s first year of the second term.
Since the bulk of tariffs came into force in April ۲۰۲۵, the US goods trade deficit widened further in the corresponding months of ۲۰۲۶.
Between May and July ۲۰۲۵, the US recorded a combined goods trade deficit of about $۲۷۷bn, according to Census Bureau data. In the same period in ۲۰۲۶, the deficit reached $۳۲۵bn, an increase of ۱۷.۴ percent.
The deepening trade deficit was larger in each month: $۱۰۵bn (۲۰۲۶) versus $۹۲bn (۲۰۲۵) in May, $۱۰۱bn versus $۸۴bn in June, and $۱۱۹bn versus $۱۰۱bn in July.
